I mentioned this in my Week 6 first look on Monday, but nothing fascinates me more than the Washington Redskins-Miami Dolphins showdown on Sunday in Miami. Arguably the worst team in the history of the NFL had a bye week to prepare to face the second-worst team of the season (Washington is winless with a -78 point differential). This is one of the better opportunities for the Dolphins to notch a win this season. The early betting market moved from as high as Miami +5.5 to the current +3.5 number. Was it warranted? I believe it was. My projection is Dolphins +2.7, so I still show a little value on the Miami side. Fortunately, we are never forced to make a bet. This is a team that is 0-4 ATS and has been outscored by 137 points. Bye week or not, it has the inferior roster. I'll be rooting for Dolphins fans, but for now I don't have it in me to get involved.
I did, however, add two division futures bets that I believe offer value in Week 6. I also broke down a line move my projections agree with, but I explained why the specific matchup kept me away. Finally, a line move that I wholeheartedly disagree with sets up nice teaser options on the new underdog.
Portfolio checkup
Buy: San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have the second-best point differential in the NFL at +70 (trailing only that of the Patriots). There is a big gap to the Cowboys at +41, and they benefited from facing the Dolphins. San Francisco has been ridiculously efficient on both sides of the ball. Kyle Shanahan has fielded the third-best offense (6.3 yards per play) and the second-best defense (4.5). The Niners rank No. 2 in overall DVOA. Now, I haven't adjusted the 49ers up enough to slot them in as the second-best team in the NFL. I still have prior numbers and projections that hold some weight in my overall model. However, this team has absolutely performed like the second-best team so far this season.
Gambling relevance: San Francisco to win NFC West (+165). Considering that the Rams have already dropped two games and the Seahawks have trailed in the third quarter or later in four games, despite their 4-1 record, I think at this point San Francisco is worth a buy to win the NFC West at +165. Seattle also projects to have the toughest remaining schedule of the three teams. At this price, the 49ers need to win the division only 37.7% of the time to break even on the proposition. I project them to win the NFC West 40.3% of the time -- and that will skyrocket with a win Sunday in Los Angeles. San Francisco is a 3.5-point underdog, but this could be the last opportunity to get them and plus-money (especially considering Seattle has to travel to Cleveland in essentially a coin-flip game). Browns and 49ers wins on Sunday would swing the divisional odds heavily in San Francisco's favor, so I wanted to grab some +165 now.
Sell: Cleveland Browns
You're probably thinking that I'm overreacting to the Monday Night Football game, but Cleveland was already headed in the wrong direction. The Browns rank league average in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency and DVOA. They have issues protecting Baker Mayfield, and his decision-making has subsequently been suboptimal. The preseason hype was overblown.
Gambling relevance: Baltimore to win AFC North (-155). The Browns have one positive going for them, however. They project to have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. I anticipate they will be better going forward, but I think it's clear that they have too many issues to legitimately contend in the AFC North. The Bengals are drawing dead, and the Steelers are down to undrafted rookie and third-string quarterback Devlin Hodges out of Samford. That leaves the Ravens with a one-game lead in the division over the Browns, with a price of -155 at some sportsbooks to win the AFC North. Although Baltimore has issues of its own defensively, I trust John Harbaugh to get it right. Do I trust Freddie Kitchens and a Cleveland team that's -30 in point differential through five games and projects to be about league average? Not at all.
The fact that the Browns already beat the Ravens this season is why this price is still cheap, in my opinion. My personal projection has Baltimore winning the division 64.2% of the time, or -179. With more than a 3% edge showing on the division future in Week 6 prior to the Ravens hosting Cincinnati as a double-digit favorite and likely victory, I'm jumping on the Baltimore train now.
Early line moves: Week 6
Agree
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Opened Packers -4.5
Now: Opened Packers -6
The Lions have been bet down from +6 to +4.5 in their upcoming Monday Night Football contest in Green Bay. Accounting for their bye week and the fact that Detroit is better than we anticipated this season, my current projection for this matchup is Lions +4.7. The +6 wasn't enough for me to get involved anyway. I'm perfectly content rooting on the Packers' NFC future from earlier this season. But there were plenty in the market who disagreed with the +6s and +5.5s enough to bet this down. I'm also somewhat concerned about the new-look Packers' offense that fed Aaron Jones to the likes of four touchdowns against the Cowboys on Sunday. Detroit ranks 26th in the NFL in opponent yards per rush attempt (4.8), and if Green Bay is able to exert its will in the trenches again, I'm not sure I foresee the Lions' offense keeping up. My projections agree with the move, but the strengths and weaknesses of these teams favor the Packers. This game is a complete stay-away for me.
Pick: Stay away
Disagree
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Spread: Opened Titans -2
Now: Broncos -2.5
Early market openers had the Titans favored over the Broncos in Week 6 by as much as two points this past Sunday morning. After a home loss to the Bills, combined with Denver picking up its first win on the road against the Chargers, Tennessee is a 2.5-point underdog. I project this game to be an exact PK, with each team winning the game 50% of the time. I certainly think betting Titans +2.5 is a fine option, but I chose to use the Titans as a leg in a teaser (Browns and Saints are other profitable teaser leg options at +7.5). I'm still overly bearish on the Broncos, despite their improving to 1-4 on the season. It's gut-check time for the Tennessee offense, and a matchup against a defense that ranks 27th in DVOA should, at the very least, keep this close enough to cover the teaser leg.
Pick: Tennessee +2.5 and +8.5 in teasers