Each Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay, and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:
Season ATS (against the spread) records:
Fortenbaugh 3-1 (13-12 on season)
Youmans 1-1 (15-7)
Kezirian 0-3 (8-8)
Bearman 2-1 (6-5-1)
Clay 1-1 (5-4)
Preston Johnson 1-2 (10-14)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday night; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.
1 p.m. games
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3, 49.5)
Youmans: Even when working with a skeleton crew of playmakers, rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been surprisingly good. Now he will get big-time help with the likely return of running back Saquon Barkley and tight end Evan Engram. The Giants are 2-2 straight up and against the spread with Jones starting, dropping the past two to the Patriots and Vikings, who each boast elite defenses. Arizona has allowed 23 points or more in all six games. The Cardinals are getting star cornerback Patrick Peterson back from suspension, but he's not an immediate cure for a defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed (414 yards per game) and 29th in scoring (28.5 points per game).
Arizona has moved into the top 10 in total offense (376.8 YPG) with rookie QB Kyler Murray showing improvement. As soft as the Giants' pass defense has been, their front seven looked much tougher and frequently pressured Tom Brady in the loss at New England. The Cardinals' back-to-back victories over the Bengals and Falcons only proved they can beat the league's worst teams. Barkley's comeback should give the Giants a big boost. This is a good spot for New York, and the price is right.
Pick: Giants -3
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 47)
Clay: Jacoby Brissett failed to throw a touchdown when we last saw him in Week 5, but he began the season with 10 passing scores in his first four games, including two or more in all four contests. The Texans have allowed the fourth-most pass attempts, second-most completions, sixth-most yards and, most importantly, the ninth-most passing touchdowns (11) this season. Houston has allowed two or more passing touchdowns in four of its six games.
Pick: Brissett over 1.5 passing TDs (+135)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 44) at Cincinnati Bengals
Kezirian: The Jaguars had their opportunities last week against New Orleans but mustered only two field goals. While I expected more from Gardner Minshew and the offense, I was still encouraged despite the 13-6 loss. The Saints might be the league's best team. Jacksonville is still solid and it's a good spot here to back the Jaguars in Cincinnati.
The Bengals have major offensive line issues (28th in sacks allowed), while Jacksonville ranks tied for sixth best in both sacks and sack percentage. I don't see how QB Andy Dalton accomplishes much on offense. Plus, Cincy's three covers this season have come with relatively large spreads (6, 9.5, 10.5). This is a short number in my eyes, given the situation (although the line is moving toward the Jags).
Pick: Jaguars -3.5
Los Angeles Rams (-3, 54.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Kezirian: The good news for stubborn backers of these two teams is that one of them will (likely) cover. The bad news is that one of them will cost you even more money.
While I have given up on Atlanta, I still believe in the Rams. Two plays swung last week's high-profile loss to San Francisco: the fourth-and-goal stuff in the first half and the fumbled pitch on the second half's first play from scrimmage. With the trade for CB Jalen Ramsey, the Rams have demonstrated they still believe in this team despite three straight losses.
Meanwhile, the Falcons sure feel like they're on life support. A 1-5 record is bad enough, and it's only compounded in this competitive division. Coach Dan Quinn's seat cannot be any hotter, and I fully expect this leaky defense to be exposed yet again. It ranks 30th with 8.5 passing yards per play allowed and is tied for 30th with 6.3 YPP allowed. On the flip side, even during this three-game skid, the Los Angeles defense ranks middle of the pack.
Picks: Rams -3
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-17, 41.5)
Fortenbaugh: In five Bills games this season, only one (at Giants in Week 2) has featured a total of 42 points, with those five aforementioned matchups averaging a paltry 32 points per game. Credit a highly underrated Buffalo defense that ranks third in the NFL in total defense (275.0 YPG) and fourth in scoring defense (14.0 PPG) for stifling the opposition -- which includes Tom Brady's Patriots -- on a regular basis. Further, the Bills rank fifth in time of possession (32:16) and tied for eighth in rushing attempts per game (28.8), which showcases the franchise's ability to dictate the action and control the game flow.
As for the Dolphins, they are scoring a pathetic 8.4 PPG and don't have a single outing featuring more than 16 points. Throw in the fact that the Bills are off their bye week and this should be a one-sided, low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 41.5
Kezirian: As bizarre as it sounds, this is a flat spot for the Dolphins. Miami had its best chance to win last week, coming off a bye and hosting a winless team. That was its main focus. Now this dejected squad hits the road to face arguably the league's best defense. I wish Josh Rosen were starting over Ryan Fitzpatrick, but I still can't imagine we see much competence from Miami. Barring a Josh Allen turnover, Miami shouldn't cross midfield until the second half. I have faith the Bills will approach this game professionally and handle their business from the start.
Pick: Bills -9 first half (-120, FanDuel)
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 45) at Detroit Lions
Youmans: If the Lions were a little luckier, especially with the officiating, they could be 5-0 instead of 2-2-1. But winning the coin-flip games is imperative to success in the NFL, and it's the same for those of us who handicap it. This will be another close call.
Minnesota is a tough matchup because of its ability to run the ball (159 YPG, No. 3 in the NFL) and stop the run (91.5 YPG, No. 9). The criticism of QB Kirk Cousins after the 16-6 loss in Chicago made him better and could be the turning point of the Vikings' season. However, the vertical throws he hit against the Giants and Eagles will be much harder to find against a Detroit defense with better talent in the secondary. Cousins is not exactly a road warrior, either, with a 4-6-1 straight-up road record as the Vikings starter. The Lions, who have covered their past four games, might be able to use their anger from Monday night as motivation.
I made this a pick 'em game, so I'll take the points and hope the Lions finally get a lucky break or two.
Pick: Lions +2
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-5, 47)
Youmans: The Raiders, at 3-2 and halfway to their posted season win total of six, are an unsolved mystery. This team appeared to be a lost cause after the Antonio Brown mess, plus Oakland is down two key players with linebacker Vontaze Burfict's suspension and wide receiver Tyrell Williams' foot injury. QB Derek Carr leads the league in completion percentage (73.3), and rookie RB Josh Jacobs has proved to be the tough runner coach Jon Gruden needed for his offense.
The Gruden critics have to give him credit for navigating the chaos and a brutal travel schedule. The Raiders are past the midpoint of a five-game trip from Minneapolis to Indianapolis to London to Green Bay to Houston. The Raiders were rolling, but the bye, after the upset of the Bears overseas, sometimes disrupts a hot team's rhythm.
The Packers have injury issues at wide receiver, too, but Aaron Rodgers is finding new playmakers and is overdue for a big game. The bottom line is this number is cheap. Two weeks ago, Green Bay figured to be laying 7.5 or 8 in this spot. At some point, the travel must take a toll on the Raiders.
Pick: Packers -5
San Francisco 49ers (-10, 41) at Washington Redskins
Fortenbaugh: I'm betting 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan wants to stick it to his former employer for embarrassing his father back in 2013. And what better way to do that than by deploying the league's second-ranked rushing attack against the NFL's 28th-ranked run defense?
Look for San Francisco to establish a consistent ground-and-pound in an effort to set up the play-action passing game for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and exploit a Redskins defense that has allowed opposing signal-callers to complete an astounding 72.3% of their passes this season. Washington ranks 28th in scoring defense (27.8 PPG) and has allowed four of its six opponents to hang more than 30 points, with the lone dissenters coming in the form of the rookie QB-led Giants and winless Dolphins.
Pick: 49ers team total over 25 points (-110, FanDuel)
4 p.m. games
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 41)
Clay: Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams has yet to find the end zone this season, but his OTD (opportunity-adjusted touchdown) sits at 3.3, which is 17th highest in the NFL. That's even more incredible because Williams missed one game and half of two others due to injury. The unluckiest player in the league in the touchdown department has already handled five end zone targets (tied for sixth most). He has obviously failed to catch any of them, though he did convert on seven of 12 end zone targets in 2018.
The Chargers own the highest expected passing touchdown rate in the league at 75%, and the opposing Titans have allowed eight passing touchdowns on the season, which is middle of the pack. At +195, this is an extremely enticing over.
Pick: Williams over 0.5 receiving TDs (+195)
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 49)
Fortenbaugh: "Take care of business and then enjoy your vacation" should be the motto emanating out of Inner Harbor this week as the Ravens look to make it three straight wins and further tighten their grip on the AFC North before heading into a much-deserved bye week. Standing in the way are the 5-1 Seahawks, who have failed to cover the point spread in four straight home games dating to last season. And four of Seattle's five victories this season have been by four or fewer points.
The Ravens rank first in the NFL in total offense, rushing offense and time of possession, as well as second in scoring offense, while the Seahawks rank 20th in scoring defense. Additionally, Seattle has already lost one home game this season (33-27 vs. New Orleans), should have lost another against the Rams -- if not for a missed 44-yard field goal by Greg Zuerlein with 15 seconds remaining -- and escaped a Week 1 date with the Bengals by one point. CenturyLink Field doesn't possess the same home-field advantage as it did in the past.
Pick: Ravens +3.5
Kezirian: This line movement down from -4 confuses me. While I recognize the Seahawks have eked out wins over inferior opponents, the Ravens aren't on the same level. Baltimore crushed Miami in its opener but has yet to cover since. The Ravens have a nifty offense with Lamar Jackson, but the defense is a legitimate problem. Baltimore is allowing 6.3 YPP, tied for 30th.
I also like a proposition bet involving Russell Wilson. He has not thrown a single interception this season, and I do not expect that to change in this game. Wilson's mobility allows him to extend plays and provide his wide receivers more time to get open down the field. Additionally, his ability to run also prevents him from forcing throws into tight coverage.
Pick: Seahawks -3, Wilson no INT (-135)
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 38)
Bearman: Teddy Covers take on a whole new meaning in New Orleans. All Teddy Bridgewater has done is go 4-0 SU and ATS as a starter since Drew Brees got hurt. Bridgewater is 27-7 ATS overall and 15-2 ATS as an underdog in his career. Both are the best by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (minimum 15 starts). Yet, the Saints are still getting no respect, coming in as an underdog against a less-than-impressive Bears team.
Chicago has one good win on its resume and the offense has been a mess all year, regardless of whether it's been Mitchell Trubisky or Chase Daniel at quarterback. Yes, the Bears have a strong defense (unless you play the Raiders in London) and are off a bye, but what about the Saints' defense? That unit has allowed 40 total points over the past three games and ranks 14th in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. As for that Bears' bye ... they've lost five straight off a bye, the longest active streak in the league.
Pick: Saints +3
Fortenbaugh: Whether it's Daniel or Trubisky under center, Chicago boasts one of the worst offenses in the NFL, ranking 27th in scoring, 30th in yards per play and tied for 21st in third-down conversions. However, the Bears are off their bye and the team is treating this matchup as a must-win thanks to a 3-2 record in a division with a Packers club that is 5-1 and already in possession of a head-to-head victory that took place at Soldier Field in Week 1.
Here's how I see this playing out: Chicago's elite defense -- which was embarrassed by the Raiders in London two weeks ago -- severely limits a Saints offense that is averaging just 19.6 PPG in games featuring Bridgewater. However, Chicago's offense will sputter against a New Orleans defense that has permitted a grand total of just 40 points over the past three weeks, and our under cashes by a hair.
Pick: Under 38
8:20 p.m. game
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 49)
Youmans: Drama is nothing new in Dallas. The dysfunction exposed during a three-game losing streak has put coach Jason Garrett's job in jeopardy again. Dak Prescott has thrown six interceptions, cooling off considerably since his hot start against three weak defenses (Giants, Redskins and Dolphins). The Cowboys' problems have had a lot to do with injuries on the offensive line, but their defense was just shredded by the Jets' Sam Darnold in his return from mono. Carson Wentz and the Eagles, who rank ninth in scoring offense (26.8 PPG), have the ability to do more damage, especially if wideout DeSean Jackson returns to stretch the field with his speed.
Road underdogs are 41-20-1 ATS (67.2%) through Week 6, while divisional dogs are now 18-11 ATS (62%). Eagles coach Doug Pederson did not exactly guarantee this win, but he has reasons to be confident. This is an opportunity for Philadelphia -- my preseason pick to win the NFC East -- to kick the Cowboys while they are down and take control of the division.
Pick: Eagles +3
Clay: Zach Ertz set the all-time tight end reception record last season and remains a key component of the Eagles' offense, but the veteran has gone under this mark in eight of his past 12 games. Ertz's target volume remains high (9.0 per game), though it has certainly been inflated a bit by a 16-target Week 2. Efficiency has been a bit problematic, as Ertz has posted career-low marks in catch rate (61%) and yards per target (6.1) this season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are allowing 6.9 yards per target this season, which is ninth lowest in the league. Only one tight end has cleared 41 yards against Dallas this season. With a target projection of eight, Ertz's projected Week 7 yardage comes in at 57.
Pick: Ertz under 63.5 receiving yards (-110)
Fortenbaugh: The Cowboys opened the season with three straight wins over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, respectively -- a combined 3-14 -- before dropping three straight contests to the Saints, Packers and Jets -- a combined 11-6. The Dallas offensive line is a bit banged up, wide receiver Amari Cooper is battling a quadriceps injury and Garrett still can't manage his way out of a paper bag. Philly's secondary is as porous as they come, but this is still a highly competitive football team with a signature road victory over a marquee opponent (Green Bay in Week 4), as well as a decisive advantage in the coaching department. The road team is 11-4 ATS in the past 15 meetings between these two franchises.
Pick: Eagles +3
Bearman: I've written it before and I'll write it again: Nothing the Cowboys have done this year has inspired me to lay points versus a good team, in this case the Eagles. As Joe and Matt mentioned, they are reeling and potentially without Cooper and some offensive linemen. Dallas faces an Eagles team that has won six of the past nine meetings in Arlington. Philly got run out of Minnesota last week but still scored 20 in the loss, a number it has hit in all six games this season. The Jets and Packers went up and down the field against Big D; expect Wentz and the Eagles to do the same.
Road dogs have been riding hot and are 30-33 SU this season. Garrett, 10 games under .500 ATS at home, was in a similar spot last season and got run out on a Monday night vs. Tennessee to fall to 3-5. Eventually the Cowboys turned it around and won seven of their last eight, and maybe that happens again once everyone is healthy. Not this week.
Pick: Eagles +3 (take them ML in parlays)