A few weeks ago, we recognized the strength and depth of the NFC in comparison to the AFC.
For the majority of the offseason, the perception was reversed. The Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns were all hyped as Super Bowl contenders, and, for various reasons, none of those teams really have a legitimate shot anymore. Even the Kansas City Chiefs are in a tailspin with back-to-back home losses (following a game in Detroit they probably should have lost, too).
I mentioned staying away from betting the NFC since it is loaded with contenders (the Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks have emerged, to go along with the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles).
I've been digging in trying to find any type of advantage that can be had in the AFC at this point. Earlier this season, I recommended betting both the New England Patriots at +170 to win the AFC along with Kansas City at +275. Well, the Chiefs haven't looked like a contender for the past three weeks (injuries or not). Is New England at -125 now to win the AFC the only way to go? Do we just add more to our position there?
Two teams I haven't mentioned yet are the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans. They both are priced 10-1 at Caesars to win the AFC. They rank ninth and 13th, respectively, in the NFL in total DVOA. Baltimore's weakness has been on defense, but the Ravens just made a very intriguing trade with the Rams for cornerback Marcus Peters. I'm also inclined to believe coach John Harbaugh will figure it out defensively regardless.
The Ravens are underdogs in Seattle on Sunday, and then they host the Patriots after their bye week in Week 9. They also have the Texans, Rams, 49ers and Bills on deck. The schedule might offer an opportunity to buy the Ravens at an even better price than 10-1 at some point in the next four to six weeks. I'll be keeping an eye on it and will make a note here in the weekly NFL betting assessment if I do.
Portfolio checkup
Buy/Sell
There aren't any buy or sell opportunities in the futures market that jump out at this point. We got in on the 49ers and Ravens to win their respective divisions at a good time last week, and I don't want to force anything that I wouldn't otherwise bet.
Early line moves: Week 7
Agree
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Opened Cowboys -3
Current: Cowboys -3
I wrote about the Eagles +3 and fading the Cowboys for the fourth consecutive week in our first look here. The line has moved to +2.5 at some books, so if you're able to grab the +3s that are still around in the market, I'd do so sooner rather than later. (That Dolphins-Bills total is on the move as well.)
Pick: Eagles +3
Agree
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Spread: Opened Chiefs -3.5
Current: Chiefs -3
The Broncos are 3-point underdogs at home to the free-falling Chiefs on Thursday night. Kansas City is coming off of back-to-back losses (and a win in Detroit that probably should have been a loss), but the Chiefs have been hit with the injury bug and it's evident quarterback Patrick Mahomes' ankle isn't anywhere near 100%. Do you know what doesn't help a beat-up team ultimately struggling on both sides of the ball? Traveling into Mile High Stadium on a short week to face the Broncos on a Thursday night. This line was as high as +4.5 this past Sunday, and despite my early-season disdain for the Broncos, the move to +3 is correct. In fact, I would be surprised if this doesn't settle there. If you like the Broncos' side as I do, I'd take the hook now.
Pick: Broncos +3
Disagree
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Spread: Opened Bears -3.5
Current: Bears -3
The Bears are hosting the Saints in a great spot coming off of their bye week. When I was looking at this game for the first-look piece I write up on Sunday night, this number was Chicago -4. It fascinated me that New Orleans was bet so heavily against in Week 6 in Jacksonville. Despite the continuous sharp action against them in the market in that matchup, the Saints won the game outright 13-6. I think everybody came in fading them a week early. Considering QB Mitchell Trubisky is still questionable (I'm not so sure Chase Daniel is a downgrade anyway) and the fact Teddy Bridgewater is a covering machine, I decided to hold out and wait for a better number. Sure enough, the market is now sitting Bears -3.
Against two relatively competent defenses, Bridgewater led the Saints to only 12 points against Dallas and 13 points against Jacksonville. The Saints' defense was stellar enough to secure wins in both instances, but going into Chicago with the Bears having extra preparation time and rest will be his most difficult test yet. My raw projection is Bears -4.3, but considering all of the other variables at hand and the discount we're getting now at -3, I'm jumping in.
Pick: Bears -3