Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay, and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:
Season ATS records:
Fortenbaugh 2-3 (10-11 on season)
Youmans 2-2 (14-6)
Kezirian 1-0 (8-5)
Bearman 1-1 (4-4-1)
Clay 1-1 (5-4)
Johnson 1-0 (9-12)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Thursday night; all times Eastern.
9:30 a.m. game
Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 47.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in London)
Fortenbaugh: This is a brutal scheduling spot for Bruce Arians and the Buccaneers, who have spent the past five weeks crisscrossing the planet as follows: at Carolina, vs. New York Giants, at Los Angeles to play the Rams, at New Orleans and, this weekend, in London to "host" the Panthers. That type of travel will wreak havoc on a person's circadian rhythm. On the flip side, the Panthers have quietly become a much more effective football team in the quarterback transition from Cam Newton to Kyle Allen, posting a 3-0 record while averaging a robust 29.3 points per game. As for Allen, he suits offensive coordinator Norv Turner's vertical passing attack quite naturally, completing 66.6% of his passes with five touchdowns, zero interceptions and a healthy 7.49 yards per attempt. And for those of you who believe in "revenge spots," this game fits the bill following Tampa's 20-14 upset victory at Carolina back in Week 2.
Pick: Panthers -2.5
1 p.m. games
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 55)
Kezirian: I realize the Texans are a good team with a dynamic quarterback, but this line has come down too low. The Chiefs are still a juggernaut. I realize they showed some vulnerability last weekend, but I am banking on a healthy Patrick Mahomes and possibly even the return of Tyreek Hill. It's going to take a lot more for me to believe the Chiefs riddle has been solved. The NFL season is long, and sometimes very good teams play poorly, but that usually means it's a good time to back them. I expect a bounce-back performance from K.C. at home.
Pick: Chiefs -4.5, over 30.5 team total (FanDuel)
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 44)
Fortenbaugh: Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer loves to run the football, but that type of approach would prove foolish in Week 6 against a Philadelphia defense that attacks the ground game better than anybody in the NFL (first in the league, allowing 63.0 YPG rushing). As a result, Zimmer will have no choice but to trust Kirk Cousins early and often in this showdown against a highly suspect Eagles secondary that is permitting an average of 271.2 passing yards per game (27th in the NFL). Minnesota's defense is holding the opposition to just 14.6 points per game (fifth in the NFL), but will face its toughest challenge of the season Sunday against a Carson Wentz-led attack averaging 28.2 points per contest (seventh in the NFL).
Pick: Over 44
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 46.5) at Cleveland Browns
Bearman: I've been in the vocal minority of not believing the Browns' offseason hype, and Monday night showed why. Freddie Kitchens got outcoached up and down the field, and Baker Mayfield just isn't ready to take this talented team to the next level. The Browns showed the star power the weekend before vs. Baltimore, but that might have been more an indication of a struggling Ravens defense that has now given up 96 points the past three games. Now, coming off short rest, the turnaround is against a solid 4-1 Seattle team that has nine days' rest from the victory over the Rams. Since 2015, when teams off a Thursday game play a team off a Monday game, the team with more rest is 10-3 ATS (0-1 this season). Road favorites have been hitting at a 61% clip this season, a trend that will regress over time, but I like the road team -- and better team -- here.
Pick: Seahawks -1.5
Fortenbaugh: You can smell this one coming from a mile away. Seattle is on nine days' worth of rest and coming off a nationally televised win over the defending NFC champion Rams, while the Browns are working on a short week after getting humiliated on national television at San Francisco. As a result, Johnny Public is going to dump a small fortune into Russell Wilson & Co. Personally, I'll be taking a contrarian approach to this matchup. Cleveland has bounced back from previous losses this season to defeat the Jets in New Jersey by 20 and the Ravens in Baltimore by 15. Additionally, the Browns won't have to battle the crowd noise and superb defensive front they faced at San Francisco, while the Seahawks won't have a hostile Thursday night CenturyLink Field crowd at their disposal. Give me Mayfield and the Browns in an upset.
Pick: Browns +1.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-11, 48)
Bearman: On the surface, the Ravens are in the driver's seat for the AFC North title and a playoff run, while the Bengals are in the hunt with the Dolphins, Jets and Redskins for the top pick in the 2020 draft. I fully expect the Ravens to win, but 11 points is too much to ignore with two bad defenses. As rude of an awakening as 0-5 has been in Zac Taylor's coaching debut, three of the losses have been one-score games in which Cincinnati held fourth-quarter leads, and, in two of them, the Bengals led at the two-minute warning. What do we know about the Ravens? They blew out the Dolphins and have looked pedestrian ever since, barely beating the one-win Cardinals and Steelers and being dominated for the most part in losses to the Chiefs and Browns. The defense has allowed 96 points the past three games and ranks near the bottom (with the Bengals) in yards per play and pass yards per play allowed. I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball and score, which also favors getting 11 points.
Pick: Bengals +11 and over 48
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, 44)
Youmans: A sub-.500 AFC South team with a rookie quarterback is laying a point to the team most books currently favor to win the NFC? The pros and Average Joes are likely going head to head, with Jacksonville being the sharp side. Even with Drew Brees out, the Saints continue to roll. The New Orleans defense has been tough against the run, and Teddy Bridgewater just had his breakout game by passing for 314 yards and four touchdowns against Tampa Bay. After back-to-back home wins, expect some regression this weekend from Bridgewater, who will return to being an efficient game manager on the road.
Leonard Fournette is the AFC's top rusher with 512 yards, and DJ Chark is the AFC's top receiver with 485 yards and five touchdowns. The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS in starts made by rookie Gardner Minshew, who has nine touchdown passes and one interception. Jacksonville is a team on the rise. New Orleans is off a tough stretch against four NFC opponents (Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys and Buccaneers) with a trip to Chicago on deck. Not many numbers support the Jaguars' side, but this looks like a flat spot for the Saints.
Pick: Jaguars -1
Washington Redskins (-3.5, 41) at Miami Dolphins
Johnson: I mentioned this in my Week 6 first look on Monday, but nothing fascinates me more than the Dolphins' showdown on Sunday in Miami. Arguably the worst team in the history of the NFL had a bye week to prepare to face the second-worst team of the season (Washington is winless, with a minus-78 point differential). This is one of the better opportunities for the Dolphins to notch a victory this season. The early betting market moved from as high as Miami +5.5 to the current +3.5 number. Was it warranted? I believe it was. My projection is Dolphins +2.7, so I still show a little value on the Miami side. Fortunately, we are never forced to make a bet. This is a team that is 0-4 ATS and has been outscored by 137 points. Bye week or not, it has the inferior roster. I'll be rooting for Dolphins fans, but for now I don't have it in me to get involved.
Pick: Pass
4 p.m. games
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3, 50.5)
Fortenbaugh: Through five weeks, the 49ers rank first in the NFL in both rushing (200.0 YPG) and rushing attempts per game (38.5), second in time of possession (34:05) and fourth in plays per game (69.0). Translation: These guys excel at controlling game flow, which is part of the reason why the under is 3-1 in San Francisco's four games played to date. Meanwhile, the Rams rank 15th in run defense (106.8 YPG) and, despite 10 days of rest, will face their stiffest challenge of the season in rookie sensation Nick Bosa and the 49ers' defense. This game should be more of a grind than most people anticipate.
Pick: Under 50.5
Kezirian: I do recognize that Super Bowl hangovers exist, but I think this is a fantastic spot for the Rams. You have one of the league's best teams at home, coming off back-to-back losses. Also, when Sean McVay has more time to prepare than his opponent, he's 8-0 and 7-1 ATS. San Francisco has a short week after Monday Night Football; the Rams played last Thursday. This is a golden opportunity for the Rams to flex their muscles and get back into the NFC West race. I also think both teams will run the ball, so I lean to the under.
Pick: Rams -3
Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Arizona Cardinals
Johnson: This is a historical account of my relationship with the 2019 Atlanta Falcons. In the offseason, I bet the Atlanta over 8.5 wins and a Super Bowl future at 40-1. They are both losers. In Week 1, I jumped all over the Falcons +4 in Minnesota. The Vikings scored the first 28 points of the contest and won with ease. While it's important not to overreact to any single result, let alone one in the season opener, I wasn't feeling great about my Super Bowl wager. I was cautious about getting involved against the Eagles the following Sunday, but in Week 3, the Falcons were getting points in Indianapolis! At the time, I projected them to be small favorites, and I used them in a teaser leg with the Vikings, who were hosting the Raiders. While it was a successful endeavor in an Atlanta three-point loss, there were signs pointing to a team with multiple issues. For starters, the Falcons committed 16 penalties for 128 yards in the game. I stayed on the sideline for the past two weekends as I watched the Titans and Texans each defeat Atlanta in dominating fashion. This team is bad. But are the Falcons short-favorites-in-Arizona bad? The short answer is no. I've been downgrading this team every week since the start of the season, and I still project it to be 3.3-point favorites in this matchup against the Cardinals. Kliff Kingsbury's new squad deserves credit for snatching its first victory in Cincinnati on Sunday. It's evident at this point, however, that the Cardinals are (also) one of the league's worst teams. I'm willing to bet the Falcons aren't on that level quite yet, and I laid the -2.
Pick: Falcons -2
Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45) at New York Jets
Johnson: I was shocked that the market reopened the line in this game +9.5 and +9 after the Sam Darnold news. Darnold has been practicing with the Jets for the past two weeks, and even if he isn't 100%, the upgrade over Luke Falk is massive. I grabbed what I could at those numbers, and within an hour it was bet down to +7.5 and +7 throughout the market. My projection is Jets +5.3, and considering that they've been slowly getting healthier on the defensive side of the ball, a bet at +7.5 or better is warranted. As good as the Cowboys looked through the first three weeks of the season, when they faced the easiest schedule in the NFL, they've looked just as bad in matchups against the Saints and Packers. The overreaction to New York's recent play with Falk under center is too extreme.
Pick: Jets a buy at +7.5 or better
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 40.5)
Johnson: Early market openers had the Titans favored over the Broncos in Week 6 by as much as 2 points this past Sunday morning. After a home loss to the Bills, combined with Denver picking up its first win on the road against the Chargers, Tennessee is a 2.5-point underdog. I project this game to be an exact PK, with each team winning the game 50% of the time. I certainly think betting the Titans +2.5 is a fine option, but I chose to use the Titans as a leg in a teaser with the Browns (+8.5 and +7.5). Cleveland is another example after a poor showing against the 49ers on Monday night of a line that moved significantly. The Browns were laying 2.5 points before kickoff at San Francisco, and now they're getting 1.5. Both of these legs are teased through the necessary key numbers to make it a play with positive expected value, so I'm all over it.
Pick: Titans +8.5/Browns +7.5
8:20 p.m. game
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 41.5)
Youmans: Philip Rivers was so bad in a loss to the Broncos, he was outplayed by Joe Flacco. Rivers threw two picks and averaged a pathetic 4.4 yards on 48 pass attempts. An injury-riddled offensive line is part of the problem, and now center Mike Pouncey is out with a neck injury. The Chargers are a beat-up team on both sides of the ball and really have no home-field advantage, losing two of three at home this season. Rivers is 2-8-1 in his past 11 laying points at home.
The Pittsburgh defense is tied for the league lead with 12 takeaways and ranks third with 20 sacks. The defense is capable of keeping this game tight while quarterback Devlin Hodges, an undrafted rookie from Samford, operates a conservative offense. Assume that Hodges will start after Mason Rudolph (concussion) was knocked out last weekend. The Steelers' past three losses without Ben Roethlisberger were by three, four and two points. With most books moving to 7, it's important to get the best number instead of 6.5.
Pick: Steelers at +7