College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.
In Week 7, we put the losers of last week's marquee games under the microscope of handicapping best practices, and we shout-out an offensive coordinator who suddenly has the personnel to relive his innovative glory days and a head coach whose longtime line-crossing behavior is finally alienating people in his own house.
All lines and totals from Circa Sportsbook as of Sunday.
Openers
First impressions from the schedule and opening lines.
A season-high four games pit ranked teams this week, though the oddsmakers aren't impressed by the pollsters' definition of a marquee game, hanging double-digit prices on three of them. Week 7 also sees the return of Wednesday night football and Virginia Tech plays the slate's only added game versus an FCS foe.
Colorado State Rams (-4) at New Mexico Lobos
8 p.m. ET Friday (CBSSN)
The Rams have won nine straight in this series and covered five of the past six, but the past two meetings have been decided by two and three points, respectively. A graphic posted during last week's New Mexico-San Jose State telecast reminded viewers that the Lobos haven't had a quarterback make more than four consecutive starts in the past 25 games (and have sported six starters under center in that span), but the Rams have quarterback issues as well and have dropped four straight since losing Colin Hill for the season at Arkansas in Week 3.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Indiana Hoosiers (-25.5)
Noon ET Saturday
Indiana doesn't see many lines like this in Big Ten games, but so far, Tom Allen is 4-0 in his short head-coaching career as a favorite of at least 20 points. You won't need to do any deep digging to realize that Rutgers players are divided on the issue of the starting quarterback and tailback refusing to play last week, quitting on the season but not leaving the team. Yesterday's AP story alone quoted one player as saying that "we support them" for "cheering on" from the sideline and another as saying, "Whoever's with us, we'll take that and play as hard as we can." If you were to dig a little deeper, you'll find what you probably already know, which is that this is a mess.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)
12:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ACCNX)
Are prices finally catching up with the rebuilding Yellow Jackets? Duke has covered five straight versus Tech, all as an underdog, but has missed five straight ATS versus teams with losing records and has never offered Tech a price this large in the history of the series.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Florida Atlantic Owls (-11.5)
4 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN+)
One thing you'll hear a lot of coaches lament early in the season after a couple weeks of facing either overmatched foes (such as Penn State's opening tilts with Idaho and Buffalo) or paycheck games versus larger programs (such as New Mexico State's first two weeks at Wazzu and Bama) is that the staff doesn't really know what the team is yet because it has yet to play a team with remotely similar talent. That happens all the time -- but not usually as deep into the season as Week 6. Most Group of 5 schedules have at least one September nonconference matchup versus another Group of 5 team, and most Power 5 teams likewise have a nominal peer on the September docket these days.
Middle Tennessee opened with two far more talented Big Ten teams and an ACC team, along with an FCS squad and an open date through five weeks. It was fair for the coaches to wonder if the defending CUSA East champs knew what the 2019 edition was heading into last week's clash with Marshall, the first fair fight of the season. After an 11-point win that nevertheless saw the Blue Raiders be outgained by a whopping 177 yards, it's fair to wonder if the oddsmakers have much idea of what this team is. We were really surprised by the double-digit price on offer from CUSA also-ran Florida Atlantic, which has beaten the Raiders just once and covered just twice in the past 11 meetings.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying or selling and why.
Buy: Ole Miss Rebels
We loved the impact Mike MacIntyre made on the Ole Miss defense this offseason and have already written about expecting a return to Land Shark standards on that side of the ball. But now the other deposed Pac-12 coach that Matt Luke hired as a coordinator this offseason is starting to make his impact felt.
In freshman John Rhys Plumlee, Rich Rodriguez has the quarterback he needs to make his run-first spread attack soar. Plumlee led a rushing attack that gashed Alabama for 279 yards last week and blitzed Vandy for 413 more. In fellow true freshman Jerrion Ealy, the offense has a backfield complement to senior tailback Scottie Phillips who gives opponents three ball carriers worthy of special attention. Plumlee is still a poor passer by FBS starter standards, but as an 18-year-old true freshman, he can only improve, and he has an All-SEC-caliber wideout to work with in Elijah Moore. That isn't Rodriguez's game anyway, and this admittedly one-dimensional offense should be considered a very potent threat to all but top-shelf run defenses.
Don't be surprised to hear a ton of Pat White/Steve Slaton comparisons about Plumlee and Ealy in the months leading into the 2020 season.
Sell: Florida Gators
Props to Florida and Ohio State for big wins Saturday, but both results have more to do with the performance of the losers than that of the winners. One of the most important concepts we regularly stress here is one that coaches often speak about and everybody intuitively understands, but few give its real and very powerful due: It's a different team every week.
The 2019 Auburn team has an identity, and that identity is quite distinct from the dozen-plus iterations that take the field each week, as are those from each other. Week 6 Auburn was one of the worst Tigers teams we've seen take the field in a long time, and you don't want to fall into the trap of thinking that it was a quality win for the Gators. You instead want to understand that playing this specific opponent has reduced the average quality of Florida's schedule, not enhanced it, and in the process of that realize that the Gators haven't played anybody this season that a top-five team wouldn't bludgeon by four or five touchdowns.
Auburn wasn't "exposed" here any more than its truths were laid bare beforehand. We all knew Bo Nix was playing his fifth career game and likewise knew the accompanying risks, right? A true freshman quarterback faced a very good defense in one of the nation's toughest places to play. He played poorly and was overmatched. It happens. We didn't know whether that would be the case Saturday (and in fact leaned toward "not" here), but that doesn't change the fact that everybody knew it was likely to happen at some point.
Don't make the mistake of dismissing Auburn or over-crediting Florida. You just saw what will be the worst game of Nix's career, and Florida is a long way from being a legit top-10 team (or even a top-20 one in our ratings.)
Sell: Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is very much a top-10 team in our ratings but is now overrated nationally thanks to a runaway win in which the Buckeyes had the red carpet rolled out for them. Again, you need to hear us say "it's a different team every week." If you want to feel less bewildered about what just happened than the folks on your television every Saturday, you need to understand not merely that it's true but also that it's the most important predictive concept not fully baked into the numbers.
Michigan State gets a lot of credit for a lot of good things that are pretty consistent hallmarks of the program, including but not limited to elite rush defense, tendency to avoid beating itself, toughness and effort. Don't give Ohio State full credit for overcoming those things when the reality is Sparty put none of those elements on anything close to full display Saturday. Don't credit any team with defeating anything other than what it actually had to defeat. It is a fatal predictive mistake to think that a team's opponent just defeated the 2019 edition of Program X because opponents are never playing the 2019 edition of Program X, always and only simply the Week Z sub-edition of the 2019 edition.
In this case, Sparty's issues were magnified this time by the caliber of opponent and the environment, but they've been on display longer than that (and we're annoyed at ourselves for dismissing some of this week's red flags and backing them anyway). Michigan State isn't anywhere near what we hoped and expected in August. A litany of off-field issues are taking their toll, and we're very concerned that this might be the end for a head coach who is rightfully highly respected and a personal favorite.
Sell: Washington State Cougars
One coach whose act is finally wearing thin, even with his own people, is Mike Leach, who predictably threw his players under the bus after a lackluster Week 5 loss at Utah. In an all-too-familiar postgame rant, Leach tagged his players as soft and entitled, among other things. He needs to be reminded of the truism that a team's personality and character are a reflection of its coach.
We've seen this program's best already, and it's downhill from here as more and more players, fans and formerly fawning media members are waking up to the idea that maybe constant debasement isn't the ideal way to manage a program. Defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys, resigned on the Friday of the Cougars' open date. Claeys has a history of standing up for both his players and what he believes is right, and this isn't the first time it has cost him a lucrative coaching position. Don't fall into believing that this is all about a defense that allowed 105 points its past two games; it's more about the toxic work environment and the head coach's lengthy, ugly, public history of belittling, shaming and passing accountability downward.
The boat's getting lighter in Pullman, and you should be looking for spots to fade this declining regime.
Around the slate
Congratulations to Billy Napier and his Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, the last team in America still undefeated against the spread. It's safe to say the books are adjusting, though, as Louisiana is a one-point favorite in the first Wednesday game of the season over an Appalachian State outfit that laid the Cajuns 26 and 17 points in their two meetings last season.
Only Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt are still winless at the betting window, and if you're trying to decide whether to ride those streaks or hop off, remember that these are two programs headed in opposite directions. Sixth-year Vandy boss Derek "Brother Mouzone" Mason is on his way out, and Geoff "Minister of Mayhem" Collins is in a total-forgiveness Year Zero situation at Georgia Tech. Collins' team is understandably awful during a dramatic scheme change rebuild. Mason's tenure has featured a lot more highlights than that of most former Vandy coaches but is not showing any consistency after more than half a decade.
We didn't think anyone of our generation would live to see Tulane laying nearly five touchdowns in a conference game, but here we are. The Wave are 32.5-point chalk over hapless Connecticut, the highest number of the week.
As the weather gets colder, totals drop and this week there are a season-high six games with totals of fewer than 45, led by the 38.5 between Wyoming at San Diego State.
The highest number is by far the total of 75 on the Oklahoma-Texas game. It's lower than the total of 80 on last season's Big 12 title game meeting, but it's the second-highest in Red River series history.