Welcome to 2019 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Just pick a winner each week, and don't use the same team twice. If you win all 17 weeks (or outlast your group members), you win. You can find all the rules here.
This article will look at the top Eliminator options each week, using betting lines, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), trends, future schedules and anything else that will help determine the best picks. (For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here.)
Usually, September is the hardest month to pick in Eliminator Challenge. Teams haven't separated themselves yet, and September typically has the fewest games with double-digit spreads.
That's not the case this week. For the first time in a non-strike season since the merger, two teams are favored by at least 21 points. The Dallas Cowboys and the New England Patriots both are facing overmatched opponents in their home stadiums. As a result, take them and move onto next week.
Top picks
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins
Miami has been outscored 102-10 in its first two games, and FPI views the Dolphins as nearly eight points worse than any other team in the NFL. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook lists them at +350 to go winless, so fading Miami every week possible is a viable strategy. Dallas is up to sixth overall in the FPI rankings, and this is by far their easiest game of the season. The only other game remaining where they have a better than 75% chance to win is in Week 17 against Washington, and who knows what Dallas will have to play for by then.
The other best opportunity to use them is Week 9 at the Giants, but between New England and Dallas, the better team to save is New England. Dallas hasn't been this big of a favorite in a non-strike year since Roger Staubach was the quarterback. Early in the week, Dallas is the overwhelming chalk, but there's little reason to fade it.
Caesars line: Cowboys -21.5
FPI favorite: Cowboys (94%)
Eliminator Challenge: 58% selected
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Once again, the Patriots are massive favorites against an overmatched opponent. New England is 27-0 as a favorite of at least 14 points under Bill Belichick, and they've covered nine of the past 10 meetings. Belichick is 6-0 against quarterbacks making their first career starts, and the Jets don't even have a full week to get quarterback Luke Falk, who wasn't even on the roster until Monday morning, prepared. The Patriots have won eight straight home meetings and 10 straight regular-season home meetings. It's hard to go wrong picking New England here. That said, they also will be the biggest FPI favorites in Week 6 at home against the Giants, and there are fewer appealing options that week, which is why I prefer Dallas to New England this week.
Caesars line: Patriots -22.5
FPI favorite: Patriots (90%)
Eliminator Challenge: 7% selected
Minnesota Vikings vs. Oakland Raiders
This is one of only two games on the Vikings' schedule where FPI gives them at least a 71% chance to win. The other is in Week 8 against Washington, when the chalk will likely be Pittsburgh at home against Miami. Just like with San Francisco, taking Minnesota in leagues where you need to pick only one winner is getting too cute, but they have a 78% chance to win according to FPI. Derek Carr is 1-11 in his past 12 starts as a road underdog.
Caesars line: Vikings -7.5
FPI favorite: Vikings (78%)
Eliminator Challenge: 3% selected
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Again, there is no reason to avoid Dallas or New England, but if you really want to get cute or your group makes you take multiple teams, San Francisco is a viable option. FPI is very high on what the 49ers have done this season, as they've moved well inside the top 10 in the FPI rankings. FPI makes them an 80% favorite to beat the Steelers, as Mason Rudolph makes his first career start. The 49ers' defense has been the second-most efficient in the NFL this season, as they have completely shut down the Buccaneers and Bengals. The Steelers' defense was expected to be improved, but so far they rank just 26th in the NFL in efficiency. Under Mike Tomlin, they've lost seven straight games as underdogs of at least six points.
Caesars line: 49ers -6.5
FPI favorite: 49ers (80%)
Eliminator Challenge: 2% selected