What do the Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos all have in common? They were all woeful in Week 1. Overreactions are abound, which makes betting on -- or against -- these teams in Week 2 very compelling.
But what else did we learn in Week 1? Lamar Jackson won the league's MVP award, Gardner Minshew won Offensive Rookie of the Year and the New England Patriots won Super Bowl LIV.
I say this in jest, but those are legitimate reactions I have seen running rampant since Sunday (even if the Patriots one is probably true). I'll be driving this home throughout the start of this NFL season, but one of the biggest mistakes a bettor can make is betting the NFL in Week 2 based solely on the results of Week 1 (or the results of any single week for that matter). Paying premiums does not equal value, and we are on a constant search for value.
I'll be discussing the team performances I'm buying and selling each week and taking a look at early line moves with which I agree and disagree. Let's dive into some of the details that stuck out to me in Week 1 -- and we'll look at how we can apply them to our betting process for Week 2.
Portfolio checkup
Buy
The Packers won with relative ease on opening night in Chicago despite only scoring 10 points. Frankly, their offense has nowhere to go but up. They only managed to gain 3.74 yards per play, and the running game was nonexistent. The difference in the game was that Aaron Rodgers made enough plays to lead Green Bay on a touchdown drive, while Mitchell Trubisky did not. The Packers defense was so impressive for the entirety of the game that I have no choice but to buy on the upside in Green Bay. Once new head coach Matt LaFleur has time to correctly deploy an offense led by one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, I don't think it would shock anybody if they were contending in the NFC (the Packers are currently +800 to win the NFC at Caesars Sportsbook, and as high as +1000 in the market).
Sell
Denver Broncos
It would be fairly obvious to sell on the Dolphins here, but if you weren't already doing that prior to Week 1, then you certainly are now. Let's look at a team instead that was bet from +3 when Week 1 lines opened this summer all the way to -3 on Monday night. I've been bearish on the new-look, Joe Flacco-led Broncos throughout the offseason. I understand the market movement to some extent with all of the off-the-field drama surrounding the Raiders, and if Oakland had lost the Monday night game by three touchdowns, nobody would have batted an eye. But that puts the actual result in perspective.
The Broncos got beat up from the get-go by that Oakland team, managing to gain just 344 yards despite keeping a clean sheet in the turnover department and only committing six penalties (and benefited from a myriad of Raiders' missed tackles in the second half). Denver has major issues offensively, and they were glaring against a defense that ranked dead last in the NFL last season, allowing 6.3 yards per play.
Now, I went on record in an article last week and on Daily Wager saying I projected the Raiders to be a slight favorite in their matchup against the Broncos and bet the +3, but I still don't think Oakland is very good. They'll likely still end up with one of the five worst records in the NFL this season. So where does that leave Denver?
The Broncos are certainly fade or pass for me in the early-season, and I still put a great deal of weight into what the Bears did last season when projecting their performance for 2019. If Denver struggled that mightily offensively against the Raiders, how difficult is it going to be for Flacco and the offense against the Chicago defense and a team coming off of an embarrassing loss in a season-opener in front of their home crowd to a divisional rival? I know I preach limiting overreaction after Week 1, but I thought the market was wrong on the Broncos entering Monday night anyway. I'm perfectly fine with officially selling on Denver at this point in the season.
Hold
I wish I knew how much stock to put into the Ravens' 59-10 demolition of the Dolphins this past Sunday. It's hard to win an NFL game by 49 points and outgain an opponent 643 yards to 200. But does that speak more to the hot mess in Miami or to the Ravens' Super Bowl aspirations? The answer is likely a less drastic combination of both. We won't likely get a clear answer to assessing just how good Baltimore is this season until they visit the Chiefs in Week 3, as the Ravens are currently 13.5-point favorites against the Cardinals this week. While I made a few adjustments and the Ravens do project to be a better team than I anticipated entering the season, I will be cautious evaluating -- and ultimately betting -- their games going forward.
Early line moves: Week 2
Agree
Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens
Total: Opened 42.5
Now: 46.5
The Cardinals-Ravens matchup in Baltimore opened with a total of 42.5 points, and that has already moved up to 46.5 at this point in the week. Four-point moves in an NFL game aren't common, but this is one that -- after the offensive display from the Ravens in Week 1 -- was clearly too low. Even Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' offense under Kliff Kingsbury found a groove in the second half of their matchup against the Lions after erasing an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit. While it's important to tread lightly in Week 2, the upside for both of these offenses is certainly visible and nobody is expecting much from the Arizona defense anyway (it allowed 6.0 yards per play to Detroit). My projection for this game total is 47.3, so the move up was absolutely warranted.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Total: Opened 44
Now: 46.5
The new-look RPO offense for Dallas under first-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was magnificent. The downfall of the Cowboys' offense has always been the suspect playcalling from head coach Jason Garrett. He deserves credit for putting his ego in his back pocket and handing the reins to Moore, as it already resulted in Dak Prescott throwing for 405 yards and four touchdowns in the best opening-day quarterback performance in franchise history. The game total against a Redskins team that just averaged 6.9 yards per play on offense in Philadelphia opened at 44. It's now sitting at 46.5 in the betting market.
If there is a single team I trust that I can correctly react to after Week 1, it's the Cowboys (and the fact my under-nine season wins ticket is going to be a loser). Whether it be against the New York Giants or not, it was one of the more fluid offensive displays I have seen -- and it was Moore's first time ever calling offensive plays. It may take multiple weeks before the market catches up to correctly lining Dallas game totals.
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos
Spread: Opened Bears +1
Now: Bears -2.5
The Bears opened as one-point underdogs in Denver on Sunday evening but have since moved to 2.5-point favorites after the Broncos' showing on Monday Night Football. I strongly agree with the move (if it wasn't already evident), and I wouldn't be at all shocked if this reaches -3 at some point later in the week. If you like Chicago, I would recommend betting it now. If you're stubbornly eager to invest in Denver, then I think holding out for a +3 is a viable option.
Disagree
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Opened Bengals -2
Now: Bengals -1.5
While the Bengals opening as a two-point home favorite against the 49ers was fairly close to my personal projection (Bengals +0.7), I backed Cincinnati anyway because it fell under one of the best angles to bet in the NFL over the past four seasons: Betting against a team beginning the season with back-to-back road games (San Francisco in this case) is 14-1 against the spread since 2015. This is significant because 2015 is the year the CBA made offseason conditioning less intense (I wrote about this and the four games it affects in Week 2 on Monday here).
So while my raw projections conflict with the movement in the market to Bengals -1.5 now, there are other factors at bay. I bring this up because some may wonder why Cincinnati is laying points to a Week 1 underdog that won, 31-17, on the road in Tampa Bay. I'm certainly not taking anything but positives away from the 49ers' performance, but I can't get behind a play on San Francisco either in this particular spot.