Welcome to 2019 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Just pick a winner each week, and don't use the same team twice. If you win all 17 weeks (or outlast your group members), you win. You can find all the rules here.
This article will look at the top Eliminator options each week, using betting lines, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), trends, future schedules and anything else that will help determine the best picks. (For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here.)
In Week 1, the chalk mostly held, as the four highest-selected teams all earned wins in Week 1, and over 81% of Eliminator entrants advanced. The biggest upset was the Tennessee Titans upsetting the Cleveland Browns, knocking out 5.7% of the field. It's a big change from last season, when the only double-digit favorite, the New Orleans Saints, lost outright at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This week is simple. The New England Patriots are the biggest favorites we have seen in the NFL in over a decade. You can take them as your free square, move on to next week, and likely be safe. You could also save them for later -- remember, they will face the Miami Dolphins again later this season, and a Week 6 home matchup against the New York Giants is very appealing, too. Or you can take the Baltimore Ravens at home against the Arizona Cardinals, who were the worst team in the NFL last year and don't appear to be much better this year.
Top Picks
Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals
According to FPI, the Ravens have the same chance to win as the Patriots, except they will likely be selected by about half as many people as the Patriots will be. This line may be inflated a little based on just how bad the Dolphins were last week, but FPI views the Cardinals as the second-worst team in the NFL, so the level of competition doesn't increase a lot.
Caesars line: Ravens -13.5
FPI favorite: Ravens (86%)
Eliminator Challenge: 17% selected
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
So much for not taking road teams early in the season. After last week's 59-10 loss, the Dolphins look like they will be in this column all year as a team to fade. FPI ranks the Dolphins as over five points worse than any other team. This betting line is already historic, with the Patriots installed as 19-point favorites early in the week. Teams favored by at least 17 points are 24-1 in their past 25 games, though the last time it happened, the Minnesota Vikings were stunned by the Buffalo Bills last season. The last 35 teams favored by as many as 19 points got the win. The Patriots will be the biggest weekly favorites three more times this season, including in Week 6 at home against the Giants, so there will be other times to use them when they are a less popular pick. But it's hard to go wrong taking them here.
Caesars line: Patriots -19
FPI favorite: Patriots (86%)
Eliminator Challenge: 35% selected
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There isn't a great reason to go past the Ravens or Patriots, but if you want to get cute, going against a rookie sixth-round pick making his first career start on the road is a good place to start. While Gardner Minshew was actually very solid last week, the Texans should be able to adjust with a week to review tape. The Jaguars scored a total of 10 points in two meetings against Houston last year, with the Texans winning both games by double-digits. And on paper, there aren't many great weeks to take the Texans. There isn't a single week this season where the Texans are listed as one of the two biggest favorites. But while this would be a great week to burn the Texans strategically, fading the Ravens and Patriots seems like fancy-play syndrome.
Caesars line: Texans -8.5
FPI favorite: Texans (74%)
Eliminator Challenge: 4% selected