With the 2019 college football season about to be in full swing, it's time to lock down those value bets.
Lucky for you, college football experts Bill Connelly, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele are here to offer their best bets for the upcoming season. Here are their favorite plays for the College Football Playoff, conference titles, season win totals, the Heisman and games of the year.
For an individual look at how to bet on each of the top 25 teams, according to ESPN College Football Rankings, check out our team-by-team best bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds and picks as of Aug. 20.
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Win totals | Conference | CFP | Heisman | Games
Best season win total bets
Clemson Tigers over 11.5 wins (-110)
Kezirian: ESPN's FPI projects the Tigers as at least 20-point favorites in all but two regular-season games. In those two others, they are favored by more than two touchdowns. Clemson should roll easily through a mediocre ACC schedule, while also catching Texas A&M at home. Additionally, Georgia Tech comes to Death Valley, and the Tigers no longer have the possibility of being stumped by that unique option offense. Alabama demonstrated last year what happens when a historically dominant defense unveils a prolific offense. We also got a taste of that with Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and the Tigers will be incredibly explosive this coming season as he evolves even more. "Clemsoning" is a thing of the past; the Tigers ran the table last season and two of the past four years.
Texas Longhorns under 9 wins (+105)
Connelly: If you've followed anything Texas-related this offseason, you know the stats are very much not in agreement with conventional wisdom re: the Longhorns. S&P+ gives Texas all of a 4 percent chance of going 10-2 or better, and while Tom Herman has defied the stats in two of his four seasons as a head coach, he a) he certainly didn't in the other two, and b) 4 percent ! I noticed you can find 9.5 in some places, which makes this an even better bet.
Johnson: There isn't a more overhyped -- and overvalued -- team in the country this year. In just about every media poll I've seen, Texas (win projection of 6.99) ranks in the top 10. I think the Longhorns are the 28th-best team in the country entering the season.
Let's look back at what we know from last year's squad: Texas allowed 5.6 yards per play to opponents and gained only 5.5 YPP on offense. It's hard to score more points than an opponent doing that.
So how did Tom Herman muster a 10-4 season? The Longhorns were 7-3 in one-score games. We know that is expected to regress to 50-50 long term, so while it's possible they could defy the odds again in 2019, I'm looking to bet on what is expected to happen, on average. Is a defense replacing its front seven and both starting cornerbacks in a prime position to be relied on in close games (if it can even keep them close)? Big 12 offenses are tough to defend, and Texas lands an elite LSU team in nonconference early in the season while the defense is still inexperienced. I'm willing to bet against it.
Season win totals for Texas at 9.5 in the -150 price range exist in the market as well, and I think both are worthwhile options. I project the Longhorns to be underdogs in four games this season and pick 'em in three others. If Sam Ehlinger and the young defense can lead the program to double-digit wins in the regular season and beat us, I'll tip my cap.
Florida State Seminoles over 7 wins (-175)
Steele: Florida State is 12-13 over the past two seasons and needed to reschedule a game just to get to six wins two years ago. The Seminoles are coming off their first losing season since 1976, but they are my No. 3 most improved team in 2019. Willie Taggart should be on the hot seat to start the season, but will be off of it by the end. Typically there is a learning curve for first-year head coaches, as they have to learn players' strengths and weaknesses and the players have to learn new schemes. When I talked to Taggart this spring, he felt the players were fully bought in for Year 2, and this team is deeper than the 2018 squad. I only have the Seminoles as a true underdog in two games this year with a couple of toss-up games. They should surpass this total by early November.
Michigan State Spartans over 8 wins (-115)
Kezirian: Cheesy movies have been easier to watch than Michigan State's offense was last season. Simply put, it was a brutal. But the Spartans also battled injuries, have since changed its offensive coordinator and return several key players. QB Brian Lewerke is capable and should lead an improved unit. Meanwhile, the defense ranked among the nation's best and will likely be just as potent this year. The schedule presents an interesting slate as the three toughest opponents (Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan) are all on the road. Sparty should be favored in the other nine games. Given it takes five losses to lose this wager, I think the over is a strong play. Head coach Mark Dantonio thrives when he is overlooked or dismissed.
North Carolina Tar Heels under 5.5 wins (-160)
Kezirian: Mack Brown is a college football staple, but he will learn quickly the cupboard in Chapel Hill is much more bare than the one he enjoyed at Texas. I just do not see six wins on this schedule. Mercer presents the only automatic win. FPI only favors the Heels in four other games. With that being said, I can see UNC losing to Appalachian State. The Tar Heels face 11 schools that reached bowl games in 2018, and that includes Clemson.
Maryland Terrapins over 3.5 wins (-160)
Coughlin: Mike Locksley takes over as head coach for the Terrapins. All the naysayers will mention how bad the Locksley era was at New Mexico, but this has a totally different feel. Locksley knows the "DMV" area better than almost anyone in college football recruiting, and it's already showing, as the defense has two five-star recruits transferring in that are eligible immediately. That will help a defense that finished last in the Big Ten in tackles for loss. The offense brings in Virginia Tech transfer Josh Jackson, who has plenty of experience playing quarterback in the ACC. The offense also returns star running back Anthony McFarland, who rushed for 298 years against Ohio State last year. There is enough talent on this roster to win four games, even though the Terps play in one of the toughest divisions in college football.
New Mexico Lobos under 4.5 wins (-110)
At FanDuel
Connelly: Let's just say there's a confluence of anti-Lobo factors at the moment. A) After winning nine games in 2016, New Mexico has gone just 6-18 over the past two seasons. The Lobos stumbled to 108th in S&P+ (my tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency measure) in 2017 and "rebounded" to only 99th last season. B) Bob Davie has yet to field a top-100 defense in Albuquerque, and now he has to replace most of his linebacker corps and secondary. To address this issue, he went all-in on juco transfers. That almost never works. C) New Mexico is projected to fall to 120th in S&P+. Average win total 3.4 wins. Odds of winning 5 or more games: 21 percent. Feels like a pretty good under bet, yeah?
Ohio Bobcats over 7.5 wins (-165)
At FanDuel
Steele: Ohio rarely returns a lot of starters, so I am not concerned that only10 starters are back this year. The Bobcats do return quarterback Nathan Rourke, so the offense is in good hands once again. Last year they lost their top five defensive linemen and in the first four games allowed 38.3 points per game, but over the final nine games they allowed just 18.6 points per game and now have a veteran defense. The MAC East is in a rebuilding mode overall, and Ohio, who face my No. 127 schedule, has three MAC road games against teams that were a combined 11-25 last year. The other MAC road game is against a Buffalo team that lost five of its top players to either the NFL or transfer. I have the Bobcats favored in 10 games, and that gives us some breathing room.
Texas State Bobcats over 4 wins (-145)
At Circa Sports
Coughlin: Texas State won three games last year while averaging less than 20 points per game, including scoring seven in each of its last three. Enter first-time head coach Jake Spavital and offensive coordinator Bob Stitt, who comes in from Montana. Stitt is known as an offensive mastermind, having coached for over 30 years at all levels of college football all across the country. The defense returns 10 of its top 12 tacklers. And Texas State avoids defending conference champion Georgia Southern on the schedule. I see the Bobcats possibly doubling their win total from a year ago and competing for a bowl game.
East Carolina Pirates over 5 wins (-125)
At Circa Sports
Coughlin: The Mike Houston era begins in Greenville. Houston is coming off a stint at FCS powerhouse James Madison where he went 37-6, which includes a national championship. The Pirates' offense scored 20 or less seven times last year, but they return seven starters, including one of my favorite players in college football in quarterback Holton Ahlers, who started some games at the end of last season. Ahlers must improve on his 48% completion percentage from a year ago, but I don't think that will be a problem as he returns six of his eight top pass-catchers. The defense also returns seven starters, but it needs to change the turnover differential after ending last season minus-14.
Best conference title bets
Oklahoma Sooners to win the Big 12 (-165)
Johnson: The factors that we need to address for this bet are twofold. The first part is assessing the likelihood that Oklahoma (win projection of 10.97) doesn't finish in one of the top two positions in the Big 12 at the end of the season. There aren't any divisions in the league, so the best two teams from the regular season move on to compete in the conference championship game. I rate the Sooners head and shoulders above every other team in the conference, and I project them to be a double-digit favorite in every game this season until their finale on the road against Oklahoma State (and still an 8.5-point favorite in that one).
The second part is looking ahead at that point to potential prices for the Sooners against their opponents in the Big 12 title game. I currently project Oklahoma to be a double-digit favorite over any other team in the conference on a neutral field, so at the very least we would be holding a -165 ticket in a game that the Sooners will likely be priced in the -300s (or higher). That is an extremely advantageous spot to be in.
The Sooners have the talent, experience and now the defensive mind to put it all together this season. They ranked 95th in 2018 (6.0 YPP defensively) but were No. 1 in offense, gaining 8.4 YPP. While the offense will likely drop off to some degree, there's no reason it can't be made up with an improvement on the defensive side of the ball. I think this squad has the upside to be Lincoln Riley's best since taking over in 2017.
Georgia Bulldogs to win SEC East (-230)
At DraftKings
Fallica: Seeing as I think Georgia will beat Florida, that would mean the Bulldogs would have to lose twice to not win the SEC East. Florida also draws a road game at LSU as one of their crossover opponents, in addition to a home game with Auburn. Georgia visits Auburn and hosts LSU. In the past two years, Georgia is a perfect 12-0 against SEC East opponents, with every win coming by at least 14 points. I expect this to be Georgia's best defense of the past few years, and the Bulldogs have the best offensive line in the country, a dynamic running back, and the concerns over the wide receiver unit will prove to be much ado about nothing. It would be a major surprise if the Bulldogs were not in Atlanta for a third straight year.
Ohio Bobcats to win the Mid-American East (-134)
At DraftKings
Johnson: The Bobcats (win projection of 7.78) begin and end with QB Nathan Rourke. Over the past two seasons, Rourke has thrown for 40 TDs and rushed for 36 more. He's far and away the best quarterback in the MAC, and in a conference with less talent and fewer playmakers across the board, Rourke's versatility and value are compounded. Ohio scored over 40 PPG in 2018, and I project more of the same this season.
The Bobcats also benefit from playing in the East Division. Buffalo won the East this past year behind MAC offensive player of the year Tyree Jackson, but the Bulls are expected to take a major step back after losing Jackson and nine defensive starters to graduation. Akron, Bowling Green and Kent State aren't even in the same vicinity as far as talent level goes in 2019, which leaves the Miami RedHawks as the likely contender in the East with Ohio. Fortunately for the Bobcats, they get to face Miami at home, where I currently project them to be a 6.5-point favorite.
At the price of -134, we only need Ohio to win the East 57.3% of the time to break even, and I have them taking it down 71.0% of the time (or a true line of -246). This is my biggest edge of the preseason.
Appalachian State Mountaineers to win Sun Belt East (-305)
At DraftKings
Fallica: Both Appalachian State and Troy have new coaches this year, but I still think the Mountaineers are a worthy favorite in the Sun Belt East. Nearly everyone returns on offense, including quarterback Zac Thomas, and linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither could play almost anywhere in the country. Appalachian State does have to visit Troy, which it beat by double digits last year, but the Trojans get a bit more difficult schedule, having to face Arkansas State from the West. And that might be the deciding factor in who wins the East. So I'll take the Mountaineers to make a repeat appearance in the Sun Belt title game.
Best title bets
Clemson Tigers to make CFP (-500)
At DraftKings
Fallica: It will take a loss in the ACC championship game to keep the Tigers from the playoff -- and maybe that wouldn't even be enough, depending how that game and their first 12 games go. The Tigers are light years better than anyone in the ACC, they host their toughest opponent (Texas A&M), and it would take something one can't handicap for (injury) to keep them from the playoff. Yeah, it's a huge number to lay, but I wouldn't think twice about doing it.
Best Heisman Trophy bets
Shea Patterson to win the Heisman (22-1)
Connelly: I should probably just take Nebraska under 8.5 wins here, but three win-total picks is no fun, so let's take a bit more of a risk. Patterson tied Clemson's Trevor Lawrence in QBR last year despite playing in a Michigan offense that seemed structurally outdated and a supporting cast that couldn't create big plays against good defenses. If new coordinator Josh Gattis can bring any sort of boost here, and if Michigan plays at the level its FPI projections suggests, then Patterson is going to be putting up excellent stats for a team going about 11-1 or so. That's generally a pretty good Heisman recipe, and at +2200 odds (approximately under a 4% chance), there could be value here.
Best game bets
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+25.5) over Georgia, Nov. 30
At Westgate
Steele: This is a great situational game. Last year Nebraska made a significant change on offense, and after averaging 23 points per game over its first six contests, the Huskers' scoring climbed to 37 points per game over the final six games. The Yellow Jackets are going through a rebuilding year and, like Nebraska, are altering their offense, moving from the option to a pro-style attack. Geoff Collins is a fiery coach that will treat this like a bowl game, with Tech likely in the midst of a losing year. Before this game Georgia will have faced Florida, Missouri, Auburn, and Texas A&M the previous four weeks and likely has the SEC title game on deck, so this is a significant flat spot for them.