While there is plenty of value to be had betting sides and totals in the NBA summer league day-to-day, it's also worth looking at futures prices and the playoff format before any of these teams even take the floor. Roster construction is clearly crucial, but summer league futures are often priced more on hype than player experience, talent and depth.
It's no surprise that the New Orleans Pelicans (+1400) and New York Knicks (+800) are two of the three biggest favorites to win the Las Vegas summer league. Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett will draw the crowds, but are their squads really the best suited to make a legitimate run?
Teams with big-name rookies are generally overvalued entering summer league. It's rare to even see rookies taken near the top of the draft play more than two or three games before getting shut down to avoid injury (not to mention teams could be extra cautious this time around after seeing star players go down during the playoffs this past season). Every team participating in summer league will play four games before the top eight are seeded in a single-elimination tournament. The teams facing off in the championship will ultimately be playing seven games in 11 days. That isn't anything the owners, general managers and coaches will be electing to jeopardize their franchise's future on.
Give me the second- and third-year players that are vying for minutes in the rotation this upcoming season or a roster spot at all. Often times, it will be a team constructed of multiple players with professional experience -- not top-tier rookies -- contending in the end (see the Portland Trail Blazers last year). There are two rosters in Las Vegas this weekend that check all of the boxes and offer up value relative to their price in the futures market.
Here are my two best Vegas Summer League futures bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Bucks (25-1)
Milwaukee's team will be led by Sterling Brown and D.J. Wilson (each played roughly 18 minutes per game for the Bucks this past season). The organization has expressed their excitement to see what Brown and Wilson can bring to the table in featured roles. I think both are going to be regular rotation players in the NBA for a long time showing versatility on both ends of the floor -- those skillsets go a long way at the summer league level. It was just last year that Josh Hart won MVP, averaging 24.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.5 steals. Brown and Wilson both have the ability to duplicate that production.
The Bucks also have big man Bonzie Colson on the roster. Colson actually got two starts for Milwaukee late last season and averaged 18 points, 13 rebounds and two made 3-pointers in each game. He has the ability to stretch and space the floor, which bodes well in a Mike Budenholzer system. We'll call it the Brook Lopez role (but a much better rebounder). Point guard Xavier Munford has been an NBA G League regular for the past five seasons. These past two years he averaged 22.6 points and 5.2 assists on 42 percent 3-point shooting for the Wisconsin Herd. The Bucks also rostered a few rookies flying under the radar that can make a positive impact.
Everybody remembers Wofford's Fletcher MaGee (set collegiate record for made 3-pointers in his career) and North Carolina big man Luke Maye (a double-double machine). But even Rayjon Tucker was a 20-point scorer at Arkansas Little Rock last year and will be a viable scoring option off the bench. Finally, we can't forget the Notre Dame connection between Colson and point guard Matt Farrell (another 3-point shooting threat).
Milwaukee's toughest matchup will come in their opener Friday against the Philadelphia 76ers, but their next three preliminary games come against three of the worst rosters in the Las Vegas Summer League (Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Team China). Remember, the top eight teams get seeded for the tournament. I think the Bucks have a great chance of finishing 3-1 or better and snagging one of those eight spots. At that point with a 25-1 ticket in our back pockets, we'll be sitting pretty.
Portland Trail Blazers (10-1)
As far as one of the bigger favorites priced in this range goes, Portland is by far the best bet. The Trail Blazers are stacked with players making positive impacts at a professional level the past few years, including the intriguing Anfernee Simons. I have talked to multiple people working in the NBA that have expressed Portland's desire to treat Simons as an untradable asset.
That might seem surprising, but in Portland's regular-season finale Simons got the start against the Sacramento Kings. He dropped 37 points on 62 percent shooting (7-for-11 from 3) to go along with 9 assists and 6 rebounds. This wasn't a surprise to the Trail Blazers. Simons averaged 17.3 points on 46 percent 3-point shooting in just 22.8 minutes in four G League games last season. Impressive, right? Well fellow Summer League teammate Gary Trent Jr. may have something to say about that. In six G League appearances last season, Trent Jr. averaged 33.3 points per game on 50 percent from distance (on 10 attempts per game). Simons and Trent may be the best backcourt we see in Las Vegas.
Skal Labissiere (29 points and 15 rebounds in that same regular-season finale for Portland), Isaiah Whitehead (averaging 20.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists in two G League seasons), Devin Robinson (20 points and 8.2 rebounds in the G League last season) and Demetrius Jackson (averaged 18.9 points and 7.4 assists last season in the G League) fill out the Trail Blazers' roster with experience and plenty of depth. Undrafted stretch forward Mike Daum out of South Dakota State was also a sneaky good addition to come off the bench for Portland. Daum averaged 25 and 12 for the Jackrabbits this past season and is a career 41 percent 3-point shooter. Don't forget about their first-round draft pick Nassir Little out of North Carolina who fell all the way to pick 25. You don't think the No. 3 recruit in the country last year is out to prove naysayers wrong?
Portland's preliminary schedule sets up nicely as well with matchups coming against the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder (none that I would consider strong contenders). Sign me up for 10-1 in an eight-team tournament with potentially the most dynamic player outside of Zion Williamson in summer league.