There are plenty of enticing matchups for the weekend, including Duke-UCF and Oklahoma-Virginia.
Our college basketball experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the weekend's second-round games.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections for every NCAA tournament game.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 23. All times Eastern.
Regions:
East | West
South | Midwest
East Region
No. 9 UCF Knights vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (-13)
Total: 143.5
BPI line: Duke -15.3
Sunday at 5:15 p.m. in Columbia, South Carolina
Johnson: I make the Blue Devils a 14.6-point favorite in this game, so the minus-12 open was a little low, and I'm not surprised by the move up at all. However, I think Central Florida is a really intriguing opponent. Duke's strength is attacking the rim with future NBA studs Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. As we witnessed Friday night against VCU, Tacko Fall (7-foot-6) presents a major problem for anybody trying to do that. Not only is he blocking shots, but he's altering countless others. This could ultimately turn into a game that forces the Blue Devils to take a high rate of 3-pointers, and this would play into the UCF's favor considerably, seeing as Duke made only 30.5 percent of its attempts from deep this season (ranking 334th). I think the best look in this game is the under, but with my projection coming in at 141.9, there isn't a big enough of a discrepancy yet to play it.
Pick: Pass
Kezirian: Duke is the nation's best team, despite only managing a three-point halftime lead in its opener. I expect
ATS pick: Duke -13, Duke -7.5 (1H)
No. 12 Liberty Flames vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech Hokies (-8.5)
Total: 125.5
BPI line: Virginia Tech -9.9
Sunday at 7:10 p.m. in San Jose, California
Fortenbaugh: Right off the bat, you need to be advised of the pace at which these two teams play, as Virginia Tech ranks 336th in adjusted tempo, and Liberty ranks 349th. Now take note of the fact that Vegas bookmakers hung the low total of just 126 points to open this game, and you've got an implication that we are potentially headed for a low-scoring affair. Given that information, I'm inclined to grab the points with a Liberty squad that can absolutely shoot the lights out (seventh in the country in adjusted field goal percentage at 57 percent).
ATS pick: Liberty +8.5
Johnson: Justin Robinson struggled in his return with only nine points on 2-for-7 shooting to go along with four turnovers. The Hokies as a team, however, didn't miss a beat. I think that's what makes Virginia Tech so dangerous. If Robinson is able to transition into being even just a glimmer of his old self, then this team is going to give Duke a legitimate run -- should they meet. Liberty shot the lights out against a good Mississippi State defense and deserves credit for pulling off the upset. In the unlikely scenario that Liberty duplicates its performance, I was hoping for a lower number and more drastic of a reaction in the market. We didn't see one.
With my projection Hokies -9.3, my buy point is -7.5 or better. There is a chance we see Liberty money come in and push this down, but I will be holding off until then.
Pick: Pass
Midwest Region
No. 9 Washington Huskies vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-11.5)
Total: 148
BPI line: UNC -15.5
Sunday at 2:40 p.m. in Columbus, Ohio
Fortenbaugh: What do you get when you take a slower-than-average Washington team (259th in adjusted tempo) that ranks 109th in adjusted offense and 124th in adjusted field goal percentage and put it up against an elite North Carolina squad that ranks 11th in adjusted defense? The answer can be phrased a variety of different ways, but it should always result in difficulty scoring on a consistent basis. There's a reason the early money dropped this total from 150.5 to 148.
ATS pick: Under 148 points
Kezirian: Washington coach Mike Hopkins is a former Syracuse assistant and has implemented the signature zone defense that typically thrives in the NCAA tournament. It will not have the same effect on UNC, given the Tar Heels faced the Orange earlier this season and coach Roy Williams is experienced preparing for it. However, I still think Washington has the size and length to pose problems for UNC. The Huskies should be able to keep this to single digits.
ATS pick: Washington +11.5
Schultz: Washington matches up really well against North Carolina, an average shooting team -- 75th nationally in 3s at 36.4 percent -- that will be flummoxed by the Huskies' length and quickness out of their 2-3 matchup zone. If Washington can make some 3s, this game will be tight late and all of the pressure will shift onto the Heels. Matisse Thybulle -- who leads the nation in steals at 3.5 per game -- is a real problem, and Mike Hopkins' club has a shot to pull the shocker as a result.
ATS pick: Washington +11.5
Johnson: The Huskies were extremely impressive Friday night (especially on the offensive end after scoring only 48 against Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game). Their schtick defensively is Syracuse's 2-3 zone, with Mike Hopkins implementing it in Washington after working under Jim Boeheim for over 20 years. The Tar Heels utilize their bigs in the high post and low post well when breaking down zone defenses and typically generate a lot of easy looks at the rim or open 3-pointers. Where they are even better is with their ultra-fast pace and ability to push the ball up the floor off of misses and attack the defense before it is even able to get back and set up the zone.
North Carolina is a bad matchup for a Washington zone that certainly could have given other teams fits (remember the Tar Heels see this zone at least once every season anyway, and they scored 93 against the Orange this year at Chapel Hill). My projection for the point spread is UNC -10.4, so the numbers say the market is a little high. But I think the matchup favors the Heels tremendously, so I'm staying away.
Pick: Pass
No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Houston Cougars (-5.5)
Total: 131.5
BPI line: Houston -6.6
Sunday at 8:40 p.m. in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Kezirian: Houston is 32-3 on the season, yet somehow flying under the radar. The Cougars have an offensive rating of 113.3, which ranks 25th in the country. The Big Ten has looked impressive so far, but Ohio State is arguably the weakest of the bunch. Kaleb Wesson is a stud, but this is a one-man team for the most part. I'll take the explosive Cougars.
ATS pick: Houston -6
Johnson: The Big Ten absolutely dominated the first round of the tournament, and the Buckeyes' upset over Iowa State was the most impressive. If someone had given me the opportunity to bet Iowa State -5.5 after telling me Ohio State would shoot 39.7 percent from the field and 25 percent from long range on 20 attempts, I would have gladly shipped it in on the Cyclones -- and lost. The Buckeyes' defense was phenomenal and will likely need to replicate that performance against a much superior Cougars squad. My numbers are Houston -5.9 and a total of 133.0, but with the recent woes from both schools on the offensive side and two top-22 defensive efficiencies matching up, I would need this to drop to 130 before I had any interest betting for points.
Pick: Pass
South Region
No. 10 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers (-8)
Total: 155.5
BPI line: Tennessee -8.8
Sunday at 12:10 p.m. in Columbus, Ohio
Johnson: Both the spread and total are spot-on in this matchup despite the Hawkeyes' upset over Cincinnati (that game should have been lined closer to a pick-em anyway, in my opinion). We won't be getting any value on Iowa again here, but even if there was an edge showing, Jordan Bohannon's late injury is at least somewhat concerning. He fell on his elbow diving for a loose ball and seemed to be fine finishing the game, but if this impacts his efficiency or ability at all, then I don't see how the Hawkeyes ultimately can keep this close. It might point to an advantage on the under, however, and is something to watch for in-game early. The Vols' zone attacks are a weakness for their offense this season (they are much more efficient against man defenses), and Iowa will throw a combination of 1-2-2, 2-3 and 3-2 zone looks at Tennessee in this game.
Pick: Pass
No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (-10.5)
Total: 127.5
BPI line: Virginia -15.6
Sunday at 7:45 p.m. in Columbia, South Carolina
Johnson: I was really hoping for a short number in this matchup after Virginia's showing (at least early on) against Gardner-Webb and Oklahoma's absolutely dismantling the Ole Miss defense. My projection for the game is Cavaliers -12.3, however, so the market hasn't overreacted much. Despite the data for the Sooners this season showing an ineffectiveness to score on zones, they dropped 95 on Mississippi (the most they have scored in a game all season). It feels like Oklahoma puts up a dud and struggles to reach 50, but we aren't betting on feel here. This number has come down a bit from its opening, so at -10 or -10, it's a play for me.
ATS pick: Virginia -10.5
No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters vs. No. 12 Oregon Ducks (-4.5)
Total: 124.5
BPI line: Oregon -6.2
Sunday at 9:40 p.m. in San Jose, California
Johnson: This should be an absolute slugfest (like we thought Oregon-Wisconsin and UC Irvine-Kansas State would be, and they both flew over the total). Similar to the Anteaters' matchup against KSU, it feels like getting 5.5-points in a total lined this low should be automatic. However, I fell victim to what is now a Ducks powerhouse when I backed the Badgers in the opening round. After adjusting my numbers some for both schools, my projection for this game is -5.4. I was somewhat surprised to see the over get steamed Saturday morning up to 124.5, but it isn't anything too extreme yet. If this were to move another two points, my look would be the under. Oregon is hot, and the numbers line up. This is a complete stay-away for me.
Pick: Pass
Fortenbaugh: Make that 17 straight wins for an Anteaters team that took a bevy of early money, knocking down the opening number from +5.5 to +4.5. UC Irvine (288th in adjusted tempo) should feel right at home playing at Oregon's glacial pace (328th) in a Round of 32 showdown that features the lowest total on Sunday's card (124.5 points). The Anteaters averaged a healthy 72.8 PPG on the season, but they have busted loose to produce a meaty 82.6 PPG over their past six outings.
ATS pick: UC Irvine +4.5
West Region
No. 6 Buffalo Bulls vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3.5)
Total: 146
BPI line: Texas Tech -6.3
Sunday at 6:10 p.m. in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Schultz: Another live 'dog, the Bulls play a balanced brand of basketball, ranking in the top 30 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. MAC Player of the Year CJ Massinburg -- who is from Texas and was not recruited by Tech -- will have his hands full with the Red Raiders' second-ranked defense (per KenPom), but he is a capable scorer who already hit Syracuse for 25 this season in a Carrier Dome win. Senior forward Jeremy Harris can get you a bucket as well and is averaging 22 PPG over his past four games.
The Bulls -- fifth in the nation in scoring -- have won 13 straight, are 6-0 SU in neutral site games and an impressive 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 nonconference games. This should be a great game -- and a very close one as well.
ATS pick: Buffalo +4
Johnson: My projections for this game are Texas Tech -3.9 with a total of 148.1. The Red Raiders' top-rated 2-3 matchup zone defense is difficult to break down, but I think the Buffalo offense can score on anybody. The question for me is what it always is regarding Tech: Will the Red Raiders be able to score enough to keep up with teams that can generate points against their zone? They certainly looked the part for the majority of the past two months, and Jarrett Culver is a legitimate player of the year candidate. I'm going to be fine with sitting back and enjoying this X's and O's battle between two of the best teams in the country. Unless this total keeps dropping (opened 147), I won't be getting involved.
Play: Pass
Completed/in-progress games
The team in bold is the one that covered.
No. 6 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 3 LSU Tigers (-2.5)
Total: 146
BPI line: LSU -1.1
Saturday at 12:10 p.m. in Jacksonville, Florida
Johnson: I don't show any value on either the side or with the total in this matchup. I anticipate the narrative will be that LSU would have lost Thursday to Yale if the Bulldogs didn't start 4-for-30 from long range and NBA prospect Miye Oni didn't shoot 2-for-16. It's true too. But that doesn't mean you should rush to bet Maryland here. LSU shot only 23.5 percent on 17 3-point attempts, and the Tigers shot well below their season average at the free throw line. The spread is fair and it isn't worth forcing a position in this game.
Pick: Pass
Kezirian: Kentucky and Tennessee get all the attention, but LSU won the SEC regular-season championship. The Tigers have some disarray with coach Will Wade not currently with the team. However, I think they just have too much talent here against a mediocre Maryland squad. The Terrapins have lost three of five and are just 1-4 ATS during that stretch.
ATS pick: LSU -2.5
Fortenbaugh: The downgrade at head coach from the suspended Will Wade to assistant Tony Benford for the Tigers still concerns me, but I loved the way LSU bounced back from a one-and-done performance in the SEC tournament to defeat Yale on Thursday. Maryland hung on for a two-point victory over Belmont in the opening round, but it has failed to cover the number in four of its past five games. Expect LSU to rebound from Thursday's pathetic 4 for 17 3-point performance.
ATS pick: LSU -2.5
Result: LSU 69, Maryland 67. Game goes UNDER total.
No. 7 Wofford Terriers vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (-5)
Total: 138.5
BPI line: Kentucky -4.4
Saturday at 2:40 p.m. in Jacksonville, Florida
Johnson: I jumped the gun making a small play on Abilene Christian +20.5 after the PJ Washington injury news for Kentucky. Washington has been ruled out Saturday, and Wofford is clearly a different beast. I'm still concerned about Kentucky's ability to score regularly enough without him, especially when the Terriers' strengths defensively are defending the post and isolation. The ultimate key for me is Kentucky's weak pick-and-roll defense going up against a Wofford team with Fletcher Magee that ranked in the 97th percentile offensively running pick-and-rolls. The Terriers' offense is deadly, and I don't think the Wildcats will be able to keep up without Washington on the floor. Give me Wofford +5.5 as well as a smaller play on the money line +205.
ATS pick: Wofford +5.5, smaller play on +205
Result: Kentucky 62, Wofford 56. Game goes UNDER total.
No. 10 Florida Gators vs. No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (-7)
Total: 121
BPI line: Michigan -7.6
Saturday at 5:15 p.m. in Des Moines, Iowa
Johnson: My projections for this game are Michigan -5.8 with a total of 122.3, so there isn't enough of a discrepancy to fire on anything in this game. Florida has the athletes and bigs inside to give Michigan issues in the post, but the Wolverines did a great job Thursday against Montana by forcing the ball out for jump shots and 3-pointers (the Grizzlies went 6-for-24). I envision more of the same game plan from John Beilein, seeing as Florida made only 33.3 percent of its 3s this season (ranking 225th). I would stay away.
Pick: Pass
Result: Michigan 64, Florida 49. Game goes UNDER total.
No. 12 Murray State Racers vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-5)
Total: 144
BPI line: FSU -5.6
Saturday at 6:10 p.m. in Hartford, Connecticut
Johnson: This is my formal apology to the Morant family and Murray State fans everywhere. The Racers absolutely balled out on a historic level on Thursday. Ja Morant is the first player with 15 points and 15 assists in a game since Earl Watson did it in 2000. Morant's 55 points created was the most by a player in the past 10 tournaments. How do we bet against this guy again? The next time I do will be when he's playing in the Association (all right, that could be a lie, but I won't be backing FSU here in the round of 32). My projection is Seminoles -6.1, but it's worth noting that senior Phil Cofer missed the opening-round game against Vermont due to a foot injury. Without Cofer, a 5-point spread is pretty fair.
Pick: Pass
Kezirian: If there is still room, I am jumping on the Ja Morant bandwagon. I occasionally question the ability for mid-majors to hang with high-caliber players in top-notch conferences, but Morant is the real deal. His triple-double demonstrated an ability to do more than just score. Plus, the underdog is 16-4 ATS when Leonard Hamilton coaches an NCAA tournament game. Hamilton's teams are much better as an underdog (7-1 ATS) and weaker as a favorite (3-9 ATS).
ATS pick: Murray State +5
Result: Florida State 90, Murray State 62. Game goes OVER total.
No. 9 Baylor Bears vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-13)
Total: 148
BPI line: Gonzaga -17.5
Saturday at 7:10 p.m. in Salt Lake City
Johnson: I make Gonzaga a 14.6-point favorite in this game against the Bears. Baylor did work as we anticipated against the Syracuse 2-3 zone, but the reasoning behind our belief was data-driven. Baylor finished in the 20th percentile or worse offensively in the pick-and-roll, in isolation and off-ball against man-to-man defenses. The Bears were elite when facing zones. The Zags play strictly man-to-man. The Bulldogs also roster the best offense in the country this season and should pick Baylor apart, whether the Bears utilize man defense or zone defense themselves. The number is 1½ points short, and tactically the matchup favors Gonzaga big-time. I laid -13.
ATS pick: Gonzaga -13
Kezirian: Baylor had a nice win over Syracuse, but this is an inconsistent team. The Bears even entered the Big Dance on a four-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Gonzaga is a legitimate national championship contender. Mark Few is loaded on offense, and the Bulldogs should be just fine against Baylor's length.
ATS pick: Gonzaga -13
Result: Gonzaga 83, Baylor 71. Game goes OVER total.
No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (-10)
Total: 142
BPI line: MSU -14
Saturday at 8 p.m. in Des Moines, Iowa
Johnson: Everything in me wants to lay the big number with the Spartans here. Minnesota scored only 16 points per game this season from behind the 3-point line, which ranked 341st in the country. On Thursday, the Golden Gophers scored 33 points via 11 3-pointers against Louisville. That seems likely to regress Saturday. Michigan State slept through its opening game against Bradley, and we should expect a much better effort in the round of 32. The problem is that my projection is Michigan State -10.0 exactly. I will very rarely make a bet when my numbers don't agree, and discipline during March Madness seems to be as good a lesson as any here. I'm sure I will be kicking myself when Sparty wins by 20, but there isn't an edge here worth betting, so I will not be involved.
Pick: Pass
Result: Michigan State 70, Minnesota 50. Game goes UNDER total.
No. 6 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers (-4)
Total: 137
BPI line: Purdue -3.5
Saturday at 8:40 p.m. in Hartford, Connecticut
Johnson: Seemingly everybody was quick to back an 18th percentile Old Dominion offense (against a weak schedule) against Purdue because the Boilermakers "just aren't very good." I didn't understand this notion. The Boilermakers weren't great against ODU, but they still handled the game with relative ease. How about waiting to bet against Purdue with a team that is actually efficient at scoring the basketball (16th offensively) and is coached by one of the best in the world? Purdue's biggest weakness defensively is allowing 36.1 percent of its opponents' points to come from behind the 3-point line (ranks 301st). Villanova scored 42.7 percent of its points from long range, ranking ninth in the country. Jay Wright's adjustments defensively utilizing the Wildcats' 1-2-2 full-court press and 2-3 matchup zone will give this Purdue offense a wide variety of looks to deal with. I took Villanova plus-4.
ATS pick: Villanova +4
Kezirian: As I have stated before, I think Purdue is extremely shaky. The Boilermakers finished as Big Ten regular-season co-champions, but I attribute that more to a fortunate conference schedule. Jay Wright lost his key players from last season's national championship roster, but I trust him in this spot as an underdog. Villanova is 5-0 ATS this season as an underdog.
ATS pick: Villanova +4
Schultz: Undoubtedly, this line is flummoxing. Villanova, which won the Big East tournament, is peaking, thanks in large part to senior Phil Booth, whose offensive and defensive versatility will be a huge factor against the Boilers. Expect Booth to bother diminutive Purdue star Carsen Edwards, the leading scorer in the Big Ten at 23 points per game. The Fighting Jay Wrights are 14-3 ATS in their past 17 tournament games -- and are tied with Murray State for the best ATS clip (5-0) as an underdog this season. The Wildcats have a good chance to not only cover, but to win this game outright.
ATS pick: Villanova +4
Result: Purdue 87, Maryland 61. Game goes OVER total.
No. 5 Auburn Tigers (-2) vs. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks
Total: 147.5
BPI line: Auburn -0.7
Saturday at 9:40 p.m. in Salt Lake City
Johnson: I'm already essentially on Auburn in this game, with my futures bets for the Tigers to win it all and to win the Midwest Region. If you already have a similar type of play pending, then this is a stay-away. If you want a little action on the Tigers, then I think they match up fairly well with Kansas. The Jayhawks have struggled offensively since losing Lagerald Vick for the season, but I have praised Bill Self for the job he has done defensively with this squad (ranking 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency). Like many Auburn games, it certainly could come down to whether the Tigers are making their 3-pointers, but they have other advantages inside and defensively with their nation-leading turnover rate that I think will give a less experienced Kansas team issues. The total is a little high, but I wouldn't jump in and play under unless it reached 148.5 or better.
Pick: Pass
Fortenbaugh: Any other season and this point spread would look like a serious mistake on behalf of the sportsbook. But 2019 is different, and the Jayhawks appear more mortal than ever. An inconsistent Big 12 campaign ended in a 12-point loss to Iowa State in the conference tournament. Auburn survived a Thursday scare from New Mexico State and has found a way to emerge victorious in nine consecutive contests, thanks in large part to a high-flying attack that ranks eighth in the country in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric.
ATS pick: Auburn -2
Schultz: Auburn barely survived New Mexico State, but the Tigers actually match up better against KU. Why? Because the Jayhawks are not especially big, aside from Big 12 newcomer of the year Dedric Lawson. Nor are they especially talented sans Lagerald Vick. Auburn has a pair of terrific guards in Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, both of whom hover around 40 percent from deep. Chuma Okeke is another option for Bruce Pearl offensively and is a disruptive force defensively. The 6-foot-8, 230-pound sophomore has recorded 63 steals and 44 blocks in just 36 games. Maybe most important, KU is just 5-11 ATS in its past 16 games after a win, while the Tigers are 5-2 in their past seven ATS after a victory. War Eagle rolls in this second-round tilt.
ATS pick: Auburn -2
Result: Auburn 89, Kansas 75. Game goes OVER total.