Week 10 was the week of the blowout. It started Thursday night with the Steelers 52-21 win over the Panthers. Bears-Lions, Bengals-Saints and Chiefs-Cardinals followed suit on Sunday. Hell, even the Titans blew out the Patriots, the Browns smacked the Falcons, and the Bills -- yes, those Bills -- beat up a Jets team on the road, 41-10. Buccaneers-Redskins was closer than the final score, but there was no late-game drama.
Packers-Dolphins and Chargers-Raiders in the afternoon slate were never interesting late. In fact, only three games on Sunday ended in a one-possession game (Colts-Jaguars, Rams-Seahawks, Eagles-Cowboys). That is the fewest such games on a given day to this point in the season.
So what can we derive from a week with a plethora of blowouts? We have to be
For example, the Lions and Bengals were in situations in the fourth quarters of their respective games in which they were playing against backup units playing prevent defense. Cincinnati gained half of their yardage and one of its two touchdowns in what I refer to as "garbage time." The Lions scored back-to-back touchdowns in the fourth quarter and actually had a shot to cover on their final drive despite trailing 34-10 heading into the final 15 minutes.
I don't weigh garbage time data as heavily as I would the other three quarters of the football game. We want to eliminate as much noise as we can from data that already yields plenty of it anyway.
Let's dive into some of the details that stuck out to me from Week 10 -- and we'll look at how we can apply them to our betting process for Week 11.
Buy/Sell
Buy: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have been a preseason darling leading into each of the past three seasons. In 2016, the Chargers went 4-12, and in 2017 they finished 9-7 but missed the playoffs. I didn't buy the hype in either season, but I also didn't bother getting too worked up before the 2018 season either. I made a conscious effort not to jump to any early conclusions, but the numbers don't lie at this point.
The Chargers have been ridiculously good.
Los Angeles gains 6.9 yards every time they run a play on offense. This is tied for the NFL lead with both the Chiefs and the Rams. Defensively the Chargers rank 14th, which is actually better than the Chiefs and the Rams (by a sizable margin). The Chiefs and Rams have certainly been the more discussed teams in the general media. I don't blame them, I wanted to be cautious as well. But the Chargers are for real. At 7-2, who were their only losses to earlier in the season? The Chiefs and the Rams. Not too shabby. They have improved since, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
This doesn't mean that I am betting their futures or looking to back them every week -- this will always be dependent on the market price -- but I do consider them a Super Bowl contender, and I wasn't willing to give them that before.
Sell: Washington Redskins
My sell for this week is the Redskins -- more on that below.
Behind the box score: Understanding the whole story
Team A: 501 yards, 29 first downs, 5 red zone trips
Team B: 286 yards, 15 first downs, 2 red zone trips
If readers didn't already know the intent of this section, I imagine I could poll each one and not a single person would be able to guess the final score of this game. Team A, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, hosted the Washington Redskins this past Sunday. The Redskins are no stranger to this piece either (see Panthers-Redskins a few weeks back). It could be argued that Washington has been the luckiest team in football to this point in the season. They won this game 16-3. Tampa Bay scored three points! You know how hard it is to gain over 500 yards on offense, drive your way into the opponent's red zone on five separate occasions, and only score three points?
Four turnovers and two missed field goals sum up the Buccaneers issues, but the main takeaway should be on the Washington side. They aren't a very good football team. Their record says they are 6-3 and they sit atop the NFC East division, but they have a point differential this season of plus one. They rank 26th in the NFL in offensive efficiency and 21st in defense. They are +3 at home in Week 11 against the Houston Texans; after opening at +2, they were immediately bet against. My feeling is that people will see the 6-3 Redskins getting three points at home and think it is too good to be true. The Redskins record and turnover margin, however, is too good to be true. Don't get caught up buying in.
Early line moves: Week 11
Move I agree with: The Vikings opened up as three-point underdogs in Chicago in Week 11. Accounting for their bye week, my projection for this game is Minnesota -1.1. I have been slightly lower on the Bears than the market has been, and I have been making adjustments, but it's a big edge to be getting a +3 on a team that my model says should be the favorite. It has since moved to +2.5 a few spots, and the +3s that are still around are juiced at -115 or -120, but I would still recommend a bet at either option. The Bears are the only team with a bigger turnover margin in the NFL than the Redskins. Their defense deserves some credit, but so does Nathan Peterman and some other factors that can be attributed to luck. I think the early money is on the right side of this one on the Vikings.
Move I disagree with: It's tough sometimes to go back to the well and back teams that cost you money the previous week. I bet the Lions at +7 in a losing proposition in Week 10. The Panthers got smashed in Pittsburgh on Thursday night, and maybe people are anticipating a bounce-back performance against an inferior team, but Detroit isn't that inferior. It opened Carolina -3.5 and was bet up to -4, and my numbers for this game make the Panthers -1.3. I will be making a bet on the Lions at +4 or better.
Slate standout: Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs
As bad as I wanted to find another game to use, Rams-Chiefs is the absolute no-brainer slate standout for Week 11. This matchup is one of the four most likely scenarios to represent the NFC and AFC in the Super Bowl. These two teams are tied for the league lead in gaining 6.9 yards per play (along with the Chargers). The two leading candidates for the MVP award are Todd Gurley and Patrick Mahomes. The total line at 63.5 points is the highest in the history of the NFL. We could go on and on.
The most intriguing part of this particular matchup to me is that neither team has a strength or weakness that is much different than that of their counterpart. Both are historically elite through the air and dominant in the run game. Both teams are atrocious defending the run (30th and 31st) and middle of the pack in the NFL against the pass. Sean McVay is an innovative young coach. Andy Reid is still an innovative coach and has adapted as well as anybody over the years.
My projection with the game now being played in Los Angeles (previously Mexico City) is Rams -4.6 with a total of 61.2. I anticipate the total to drop a little, but there isn't enough of a discrepancy in the market and my number to warrant a bet.