College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us inside this week to find out what perennial malady has caused its eight 2018 victims to cover just two of 18 games since infection. We'll also tell you which disappointing Pac-12 power is poised to finish strong, which perennial doormat just flashed its last sign of life for the year and which favorite we don't trust to lock up its division title this week.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling, and why.
Buy: Stanford Cardinal
Stanford's disappointing season isn't hard to diagnose. The once-mighty
Love is finally healthy, Arcega-Whiteside should return soon and this team is picking up momentum despite a 6-4 overall record. We're not really that bullish on Stanford's prospects in 2019 and beyond, but a strong finish to 2018 seems likely.
Sell: Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas rallied up admirably behind fired coach David Beaty and took its best shot at longtime tormentor Bill Snyder and Sunflower State overlord Kansas State, but in the end the Jayhawks couldn't break the wizard's spell and lost the game in that heartbreaking way bad teams so often do -- with an unforced fumble on the final drive.
The Jayhawks put everything they had into a game effort in Manhattan, trying to get Beaty a memorable sendoff as he coaches out the year, but now they are a team without another real opportunity to book a win or even prove much of anything. Oklahoma and Texas await to close the season, and neither will be laying nearly enough points to lure us into considering a defeated Kansas outfit that just fired its best barrel and came up short.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week, and what we're looking for.
Pittsburgh Panthers (-6) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Last Thursday's win over NC State saw the Wake Forest defense stop an opposing rushing attack for the first time all year. Wake fired its defensive coordinator after a Week 4 loss to Notre Dame, but the bleeding hadn't stopped on defense until this past week. Next on the schedule is an explosive rushing attack in the form of a Pitt squad that can clinch the ACC Coastal division with a win. Wake has lost quarterback Sam Hartman for the season, but the receiving corps is as healthy as it's been and we think this offense can make hay on a Pitt defense that we still don't trust.
We also think the Panthers are more than capable of laying an egg in this high-stakes spot, although their powerful rushing game must be respected. That makes the key task for us this week to watch more tape on the Wake Forest defense, listen to what the coaches and players have to say and otherwise do whatever possible to try to determine whether the big night from this beleaguered defense last Thursday was a legitimate step forward or a one-time offer.
Handicapper's toolbox
A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.
A second loss often bursts the bubble for contending teams.
The bubble-burst phenomenon has always been an extremely powerful concept, and these days the sport is delivered primarily in a way that defines that bubble. That leads most people -- players included -- to think that a second loss closes the door on any prize that's really worth having. That's not our take, but proof of its pervasiveness is in the profits.
Eight teams that were in the top 10 at the time took a second loss in Week 7 or later: Penn State, Wisconsin, Washington, Miami, Texas, LSU, Kentucky and Florida. Those eight teams have combined for a 3-16-1 record against the number since taking that second loss, and one of those three against-the-spread covers was within the group, in last week's Penn State win over Wisconsin.
Two of the newest members to this collective are Kentucky and LSU, each of whom took a second loss in Week 10 that also settled their division race unfavorably. Each team failed its first test as a two-loss has-been contender in Week 11. Those two teams are laying big numbers to out-of-conference have-nots this week, not exactly the spot you should be looking for even if you're inclined to stand under the falling rock that is the "bubble-burst" club.
Iowa and Oregon never quite cracked the top 10, but the Hawkeyes are on a two game SU and ATS skid since taking their second loss, while the Ducks are 1-2 both SU and ATS since theirs.
Chalk bits
Ohio hosts Buffalo Tuesday night, and the Bobcats are the only home dog on the Week 12 slate taking their first turn of the year in that role.
Central Florida barely covered low double digits against Temple, and now they're laying just 7.5 to a Cincinnati team with a similar profile. It's the first time during UCF's 22-game winning streak that the Knights have been a single-digit favorite against any team, save Memphis.
Texas is a three-point favorite over Iowa State, marking the fourth time this year that the Longhorns have been competitively priced (+3 to -3) in a conference game. Cyclones coach Matt Campbell has coached only one such affair in 25 conference games.
Kalani Sitake's BYU outfit looks like the kind of team that wouldn't make a great big favorite, because the Cougars offense in each of his three seasons has consistently lacked explosiveness and finished outside the top 90 in yards per play. Nonetheless, Sitake will be putting a perfect 5-0 mark against the spread as a double-digit favorite in FBS games on the line this week when the Cougars lay 23.5 to visiting New Mexico State.
San Diego State is getting 15 points from Fresno this week, marking just the fifth time Rocky Long's Aztecs have been an underdog of a touchdown or more in Mountain West play. The first four were all versus Boise State, and Long covered all four times. He's 11-3 ATS overall at San Diego State as a conference underdog of any size, with nine of those results outright wins.
Washington State and Utah State are the only teams to have covered every game but one, while Louisville is the only team to notch just one cover all year.