"You play like you practice."
The old coaching adage is mostly true. To know what's likely to happen on Saturday, you have to know what's happening in the meeting rooms and on the practice fields during the week.
That's why the college football bettor's team notes will be here for you every Friday with the inside word on weekly preparations around the country. We'll check in on depth charts, game plans, personnel and health, while unmasking practice standouts ready to break out and assessing the quality of prep, who's distracted and who's dialed in, the mood of the fans and the coaches' message for the week.
Let's dive into Week 8.
Lines and totals from Westgate Sportsbook as of Friday, October 19.
Maryland Terrapins at Iowa Hawkeyes (-9.5)
12:00 p.m. ET, Saturday
Not only have Maryland and Iowa not met since 2015, the Terrapins offense is radically different from anything even the older Iowa defenders have seen in their careers. Kirk Ferentz compared the challenge of this week's unusual preparation to getting ready to face Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. That's a stretch, but, like Paul Johnson's option attack, Matt Canada's "motions and shifts" offense does feature a lot of confusing looks. There's a lot going on in the backfield when Maryland has the ball, and it's all designed to produce what Iowa generally yields very grudgingly -- explosive rushing plays.
This is a tough prep week for Iowa coaches, who have found themselves digging into film of Canada's offenses at Wisconsin, Pitt, N.C. State and LSU. The Iowa staff has a lot to figure out and communicate to the players, while Maryland coaches have the luxury that all the Iowa film from the past two decades is fundamentally similar. It's a battle of the known versus the unknown, and we expect the Maryland offense to put forth the best showing on the ground of any offense the Hawkeyes' third-ranked rush defense has faced this season.
Explosive rushing plays have been the missing ingredient in Iowa's offense. The Hawkeyes have just one rush over 20 yards all season, but will get a boost this week from the return of running back Ivory Kelly-Martin. Nate Stanley and the receivers have been carrying the load, but that might be difficult on Saturday in conditions that could feature 25 mph winds. Iowa has some disadvantages to overcome in order to win this one by more than a score, and it's not surprising that this number moved off of double-digits quickly this week.
Auburn Tigers (-3.5) at Ole Miss Rebels
12:00 p.m. ET, Saturday
Gus Malzahn wouldn't get specific, but the Auburn coach promised tweaks to his struggling offense this week. The Tigers are a run-first, play-action team that hasn't been able to run the ball effectively enough. This is the week to get the rush attack healthy, as the Ole Miss run defense has been consistently out of position, and the Rebels' roster is thinning with injuries. Ole Miss is a worn-out bunch that really needs next week's open date, and while all the talk this week is about gutting through another game and "trying to go 1-0," we think some of the Rebels are peeking ahead to a badly needed week of recovery.
As for Auburn, you can be sure that the "tweaks" unveiled Saturday will include more touches for wideout Anthony Schwartz. Malzahn admitted that the talented true freshman needs to be a bigger part of the game plan moving forward. We also expect to see changes on the offensive line, heavier doses of running backs Malik Miller and Shaun Shivers, as well as some different looks to get wide receivers more involved in the run game.
SMU Mustangs at Tulane Green Wave (-7)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Both teams are coming off an open date, and both have fluid quarterback competitions playing out in practice this week that may come down to game-time decisions. Both Willie Fritz and Sonny Dykes are the type who prefer to play one quarterback all the time, but both coaches are torn between two options at the moment.
Tulane incumbent Jonathan Banks has struggled, and might be about to give way to LSU transfer Justin McMillan, who played the second half of last week's loss at Cincinnati. Tulane's open week coincided with fall break, which not only allowed more time for rest and recovery, but also more exclusive attention to football. McMillan has been getting plenty of reps, and -- though Fritz won't commit to it -- seems to be the likely starter.
Banks was the player who came up an inch short of the end zone at the end of last year's thriller with SMU, a season-ending 41-38 road loss that dropped the Wave to 5-7 and out of a bowl berth. Fritz has downplayed last year's outcome, but SMU players are very conscious that the game kept Tulane from the postseason and expect the Green Wave to bring a little extra juice to the rematch.
Likewise, SMU also has a quarterback quandary. Freshman William Brown had supplanted returning starter Ben Hicks, but he's been banged up of late. Hicks has now played well in consecutive games, plus has two good outings against Tulane on his career resume.
Injury reports don't tell really that much of the story, and the Mustangs have not been as healthy as perhaps it would seem. While SMU has not had many season-ending injuries or even that many missed starts, as far as cumulative blows to overall team health that don't make the news, the team's luck has been the worst in the conference. This was a much-needed open date, especially for the banged-up secondary, and we like the refreshed and committed attitude the team brought back to work this week.
SMU's indoor facility is scheduled for completion next spring, and not having it was a disadvantage over the open date when weather washed out some practice time. However, the Mustangs did get to practice in the Dallas Cowboys' facility, where the team also worked out in preparation for last year's bowl game. The staff changed up some elements of practice to make it more competitive, and the team responded with what Dykes called maybe the best practice of his tenure.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at UMass Minutemen (-3)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Last week, we wrote about how fresh Coastal Carolina seemed to be coming out of its open date and, fresh or not, the Chanticleers were flat for the first half of a 45-20 loss to Louisiana-Monroe. The Chanticleers have a good attitude this week, even coming off a loss that featured some stretches of bad play and plenty of self-inflicted wounds, but we're not sure this team is mature enough to play a clean, disciplined game on the road right now. One red flag this week was a rash of penalties in an otherwise spirited practice session.
Coastal has by no means racked up obnoxious penalty yardage this year, but the unforced errors have been enough of an issue over the past three weeks that the coaching staff has involved extra officials at practice. There is a lot to like about this program under former Wall Street baron Joe Moglia, and it's one we're actively looking for opportunities to back, but we're still not ready to green-light regularly sending it in on the Chanticleers quite yet. Be aware, though, that this is a well-coached outfit with a strong culture, and a rising program in the Sun Belt.
UCF Knights (-21.5) at East Carolina Pirates
7:00 p.m. ET, Saturday
Those looking to fade UCF in an obvious letdown spot following the Knights' big comeback win at Memphis will be backing an East Carolina team that will look very different on offense. True freshman quarterback Holton Ahlers sparked the offense late in the past two games, and will make his first start on Saturday night. We like the way this team has rallied around Ahlers, a physical runner who brings an element of toughness to an offense that has struggled to establish the tailback this year.
Coaches weren't too specific, of course, but we get the impression that with Ahlers now in as the centerpiece, the offensive changes will involve plenty of new formations, and that the final product will be very different from the offense he operated in garbage time during the past two games. It should be unlike anything UCF is seeing on film. The ECU offense seems to be handling the changes well, however, and turned in its best red-zone practice period of the season this week with Ahlers at the controls.
The QB change has injected the Pirates with a new energy that we like this week. Some underdogs are so dialed in on the stakes of a particular game that once victory is out of reach, the scoreboard no longer matters, and we've seen plenty of dogs put up a heroic fight for much of the game only to allow the favorite to dominate the fourth quarter and notch a front-door cover.
With this price, what we don't want is the kind of underdog with nothing to play for once it can't win but, rather, the kind who sees inherent value in scoring drives and defensive stops beyond their meaning to the outcome. These are usually teams that are not nearly a finished product, but who know and accept that reality and relish the journey -- teams that may not believe they have a shot at the upset, but will keep playing for four quarters because racking up small victories on the field is fun and rewarding.
That's East Carolina right now. We think this team is excited about the rest of the season and, come this Saturday, will be more fixated on "playing the next play" than the score of the game. The Pirates will be able to move the ball and it looks like they'll play hard for four quarters. That gives their backers a good shot at a back-door cover this week, in addition to the more traditional route where the favorite in the letdown spot fails to bring its "A game" and never gets on top of the number as it slogs to an uninspiring win.
Other notes
One benefit LSU enjoyed in last week's whipping of Georgia was being able to start the same five on the offensive line in consecutive weeks for the first time all year. The Tigers won't make it three straight versus Mississippi State, though, as true freshman Chasen Hines will make his first start at left guard across from star Bulldogs quarterback-eater Jeffery Simmons. Though he played tackle most of the game against Georgia after relieving an ineffective starter, Hines has played 173 snaps at left guard this year. Even with that experience, asking a freshman to contain Simmons is a tall order. We don't read him as mentally or physically ready, and there's little doubt State will enjoy a matchup advantage on the line of scrimmage when LSU has the ball.
Florida State lost basically its entire open date of practices thanks to Hurricane Matthew, but came back to work this week with a more unified and competitive attitude than we've seen so far this season. It's still hard to see this team keeping their 36-year bowl streak alive, but the Seminoles have had a good week after a washed-out open date. Expect to see some unannounced offensive line changes against Wake Forest.
Two very significant injuries will have an impact on this weekend's marquee Pac-12 games. USC linebacker Porter Gustin is the team's best player, but has been lost for the season ahead of the Trojans' road date with a Utah offense playing its best ball of the year. Oregon offensive lineman Penei Sewell -- a certain freshman All-American -- has also been lost to a severe ankle injury. His replacement has started 13 games, but Sewell was the physical tone-setter up front and had quickly become the heart and soul of the unit.