As we look ahead to the next week of college football action, this is the weekly essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us inside as we examine a clash of Group of 5 titans, explain why we're selling a top-15 team that's won every game by at least 20 points, and look back at the telling ATS history of some coaches coming off an open date.
Portfolio Checkup
In portfolio checkup, we explore which teams we're buying and selling, and why.
SELL: UCF Knights
Sure, the offense is still legit with star QB McKenzie Milton at the controls,
BUY: Air Force Falcons
The Air Force defense was overmatched against the skill personnel of Florida Atlantic and Utah State, but most teams remaining on their schedule don't have that kind of explosiveness, and this stop unit is still its usual, salty self in a fair fight. The offense has been a jumble, as injuries and emerging new players have caused a carousel in the backfield. Now, although none of them started the season, the Falcons are finally settling on the trio of Isaiah Sanders at quarterback, Cole Fagan at fullback, and Kade Remsberg at tailback. Slot receiver Ronald Cleveland, who plays a key role in the running game, is finally healthy as well.
Remsberg had just one career carry before last week, but he has speed and elusiveness that are reminiscent of departed star Timothy McVey -- and he'll be the featured guy in this offense going forward. This outfit has always been well coached, usually has good chemistry and is on the come up this season after finding its identity during a 1-2 start that featured two of the tougher matchups on their schedule.
Slate Standout
Slate standout provides games that we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for out of the contest.
Toledo Rockets at Fresno State Bulldogs (-7.5)
Jason Candle, a Mount Union product like his predecessor and former boss Matt Cambell, inherited a good Toledo program and kept it humming. Candle usually fields the best team and usually delivers when he does, with a 22-8 overall straight up record and 13-7 ATS mark as a favorite of a touchdown or more.
When he isn't the clear favorite, though, Candle's Rockets have struggled. They're 0-3 both straight up and ATS as an underdog of more than a touchdown or as a favorite of less than one score.
We're fans of Candle's work, as well as that of his opponent this week, Jeff Tedford. The former Cal boss has seen a couple games fall around a push since joining Fresno State, but if you got the best number on all of them you could be as well off as 14-3 ATS backing the Dogs in his tenure. Tedford's an offensive guy, but it's the Bulldogs' defense that has starred thus far despite an offseason coordinator change.
Toledo has allowed at least four touchdowns in six of its past seven games versus FBS opponents, while Fresno hasn't allowed 28 points to anyone but Alabama and Washington since Tedford arrived.
If each team brings its best, it would be hard to lay points in this matchup of two squads that are among the best in the Group of 5 and certainly conference title contenders. If you dig a little deeper, though, Toledo not only has to travel to the West Coast, but they have to make sure they don't overlook their opponents. Toledo routed Fresno State two years ago and has now hung 100 points on Mountain West entrant Nevada in consecutive seasons.
One of the keys we'll be following this week is whether Candle and his staff are able to instill full appreciation in their players for how radically different the Bulldogs are under Tedford than they were when the Rockets whipped them by five touchdowns back in 2016.
Handicapper's Toolbox
Handicapper's toolbox offers a different concept every Monday, along with how to apply it on Saturday.
Road favorite is the worst role for a team coming off a difficult loss
Quantifying this angle is difficult, as it depends on the input definition of "tough loss." But whether it's losing as a favorite, losing in the final seconds or losing a game after holding a double-digit fourth-quarter lead, no matter how the data is sliced, trust us when we say that road favorite is the worst role for such teams the following week. Why that role? Any team that's still a dog despite being at home is probably perceived as inferior, so there's not enough fear or concern to instill urgency in preparation -- plus, there's no home crowd to spark the need for immediate atonement.
Now trust us again when we say that no matter how you define it, Oregon's meltdown versus Stanford counts. A 14-point swing on a long defensive score, just as the Ducks were about to go up 31-7. A field goal at the buzzer to tie it up, and an eventual overtime loss. This was as devastating as they come, and it would probably take a panel of Hall of Fame motivators to get this team off the mat this week.
On rare occasions, it works the other way as the devastation fuels an inspired encore. But the early signs don't suggest that here, and the Ducks are unbackable without a quality read that they've defied convention this week.
Chalk Bits
Chalk bits is a collection of observations, issues, clues and questions from around each week's slate.
Some coaches really shine with extra prep time. Utah's Kyle Whittingham is 11-2 in season openers and 11-1 in bowl games, and his results with extra time during the regular season are almost as impressive. Whitt is 14-7 straight up and 15-6 ATS in those spots, and his Utes are coming off their only open date of 2018 this week when they travel to Washington State, who will themselves have one more day than usual after playing at USC Friday night.
Other coaches fare better in the regular weekly routine. Thirteenth-year Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald is just 3-10 straight up and 5-8 ATS in regular season spots with extra rest. The Wildcats host Michigan off their first bye of the year this week.
One coach who hasn't posted a sufficient sample yet is second-year Cal boss Justin Wilcox. Well-traveled as an assistant, Wilcox held five defensive coordinator jobs before being hired to replace Sonny Dykes. He got the money in his only chance off a bye last year, and the stellar extra-time records of his two principal coaching mentors might be clues that he'll be successful in these spots going forward. Wilcox spent the most time working for Chris Peterson, a top extra-prep stud, and Steve Sarkisian, who obviously had a good process as well as he went 6-0 ATS with regular season rest as the head coach of Washington.
Hawaii has only been asked to lay points on the mainland four times in the past eight years. The results are ugly: 2-2 straight up and 0-4 ATS, with the games landing an average of 16 points away from the number. The Warriors will try again this week as they lay San Jose State nearly two scores on the road.
Florida International, Washington State, Virginia and Texas A&M are the only four teams with a perfect 4-0 ATS mark. Honorable mentions go to Utah State at 3-0-1 and Appalachian State, West Virginia and Georgia Southern at 3-0.
The list of teams that haven't scored a cover yet is longer: Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Florida Atlantic, Bowling Green, Louisville, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Tennessee, UTSA and Wake Forest.