Welcome to the 2018 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Pick one team every week. If that team wins, you move on to the next week. If that team loses, your entry is eliminated. The only caveat is that you cannot use the same team twice. You can find all the rules here.
To determine the best picks each week, I lean heavily upon ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here. I also look at the pick percentages for each team on the ESPN Eliminator Challenge page to see which teams the majority of fans are picking.
Week 1 was a wild one, as the New Orleans Saints' loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers knocked out 26 percent of the field. The Lions (12 percent) also lost, while the Packers (10 percent) and Steelers (9 percent) were pushed to the brink. The only chalk team to cover the spread was the Baltimore Ravens.
This week,
Top Picks
New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns
As bad as the Saints were last week, they are again a top play this week -- though this is more of a game theory play. After this week, FPI doesn't make them more than a 65 percent favorite in any game this season (Week 17 vs. Panthers). This is probably the last chance to pick the Saints confidently for the rest of the season. Fading the Browns in Eliminator Challenge has now been successful in 18 straight games, including last week's tie against Pittsburgh. That streak will likely end soon, but it's hard to see it being on the road in New Orleans.
Line: Saints -9
FPI chance to win: 74 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 21 percent selected
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
This is the safest game on the board. The Rams, in this game, are the fourth-biggest FPI favorite when considering the rest of the season's schedule (and the biggest in any game not involving the Bills).
The Cardinals ranked in the bottom seven in the NFL in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while the Rams lived up to a lot of the offseason hype in Week 1. FPI now views the Rams as the best team in the NFL, while the Cardinals are 31st. The Rams won both meetings last season by at least 16 points each time out, and both Vegas and FPI are projecting another double-digit win. While the Rams are good enough where you can use them against better teams, this is the only time the Rams face a bottom-12 team in the NFL at home.
Line: Rams -12.5
FPI chance to win: 86 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 18 percent selected
Other options
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Early returns on the Bills are that they are the worst team in the NFL. FPI ranks them 3.4 points worse than the second-worst team (Cardinals). While it's highly unlikely they go 0-16 (FPI gives that a 0.6 percent chance of happening), they are one of the rare teams bad enough where you can pick against them in their building. Still, they aren't quite as confident a pick as the Rams and Saints. The Chargers are just 11-10 as a road favorite since 2010, and they are 4-10 outright in their last 14 1 p.m. games. Plus, the Chargers have home games remaining against Oakland and Arizona, so you will have other chances to pick them.
Line: Chargers -7.5
FPI chance to win: 75 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 26 percent selected
San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions
Want to go off the board? FPI has the 49ers as the fourth-biggest favorite this week, yet they are being selected by just 2 percent of participants. Outside of the Bills, no team saw its stock drop in FPI more than the Detroit Lions. They ranked near the bottom in offense, defense and special teams, allowing scores in all three areas last week. Now they have to go out to the West Coast on a short week to try to fix their problems. While the 49ers struggled last week in a road loss to the Vikings, that's a lot more respectable than losing by 31 against the Jets at home. This is the least confident of the four recommendations, but if you want to be tricky, this is your best bet.
Line: 49ers -5.5
FPI chance to win: 74 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 2 percent selected
Team to fade
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The line for this game is only three points, with FPI giving the Eagles just a 60 percent chance to win. That margin is far too narrow to take them in Eliminator Challenge, especially without Carson Wentz. Last week, Tampa Bay led the NFL in yards per play (8.5) while Philadelphia was 31st (3.6). I expect both of those numbers to regress to the mean, but given how well the Buccaneers looked last week, it's not worth picking against them just yet.
Line: Eagles -3
FPI chance to win: 60 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 8 percent selected