Unified middleweight champion Gennady "GGG" Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KOs) takes on Canelo Alvarez (49-1-2, 34 KOs) on Saturday night at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The bout will be shown live on HBO PPV beginning at 8 p.m. ET. This will be a rematch of their highly controversial draw last September, in which most boxing fans and experts saw GGG winning.
A year has passed and we have seen Alvarez suspended, GGG stripped of his IBF middleweight title, controversy, last-minute negotiations and now trash talk from both camps.
At stake are GGG's WBA and WBC middleweight titles and the vacant, but historic, Ring Magazine middleweight title, not to mention Alvarez's lineal middleweight championship he won over Miguel Cotto in 2015. Boxing fans -- we have a high-drama megafight!
Here's a look at where the money is going from Vegas bookmakers, along with opinions from boxing experts, boxers, trainers and my prediction for the fight.
Where is the money going?
Jeff Sherman, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's manager, opened the fight with Golovkin -155 Alvarez +135 and a total-rounds prop of 11.5 over -180 under +150.
"With 55 percent of tickets written and 61 percent of money wagered supporting Alvarez, our price is down to -140/+120," Sherman said.
Sherman saw initial support on the over and now is at 11.5 over -240 and under +190. The Westgate has 70 percent of tickets written on the under, but the total money wagered is split 50-50 with the sharps backing the over.
At William Hill US, senior trader Adam Pullen opened the fight with GGG -155 and Canelo +135. "We have 5-1 in money wagered and 2-1 on Canelo tickets written and have adjusted the line to -140/+120," Pullen said. He posted the total rounds of the fight at 11.5 rounds over -165 and under +145. "We had good early action on the over and adjusted to over -240 and under +200."
Experts weigh in
Colin Morrison (boxing sharp): "What's gone is gone, so the focus has to be on what's about to come. Has GGG slowed down a bit since last September? Will Canelo's knee surgery help him deliver a more dynamic offensive showing? This is pick 'em stuff in my mind. I'm siding with Golovkin, though. I think he will drag a big performance out of himself for what has become a grudge match and will win in a manner that prevents the judging being the main talking point of the night. GGG, using a brutal body attack as his main weapon, to win via unanimous decision."
Abraham Gonzalez (boxing sharp): "GGG will start faster this time and will take more chances earlier. This game plan will lead to Canelo countering more early but may lead to him tiring later in the fight. This fight will go 12 rounds and have the world anxiously awaiting the decision. That decision will be Canelo victorious by split decision, setting up Canelo vs. GGG III in May."
Stephen "Breadman" Edwards (boxing trainer): "I hope I'm wrong because I think GGG was avoided throughout his real prime years, but my gut tells me Canelo is a little too young and fresh. I think he also won't go through the initial shock of dealing with GGG's freakish power because he felt it already and he won't be as respectful early. Canelo will get out to an early lead and hold off a late charge and win 115-113."
Luke Chapman (boxing sharp): "I like GGG in this. He consistently lands the jab and, though Canelo was great at avoiding GGG's power punches last time by slipping out to his left, if GGG can adjust by cutting off Canelo's escape route, he lands that big right hand and wins. GGG -140 for me."
Nayka Mercedes (boxing sharp): "I am picking Canelo to win this because with every fight he is improving. Canelo works on his craft, and to me GGG is becoming stagnant. GGG has looked very sluggish his past few fights while Canelo, as mentioned, continues to improve. GGG comes off as a stubborn fighter who thinks whatever he has been doing will keep working for him. Canelo is going to work the body and get the win."
Rich Marotta (Hall of Fame sportscaster): "The matchup is quality, and it should be an intriguing battle. I thought the first fight was good, but far short of great. Given the emotions that seem to be present this time around, the rematch has every chance of being better in terms of overall action and intensity. I doubt Golovkin will grant Canelo the same type of respect in the early rounds, so they should go at it earlier. Canelo will try to be somewhat more aggressive this time, but I think that will actually work to his detriment. Golovkin's greater power will be the difference and GGG will stop Canelo somewhere between rounds 9-12."
John "Iceman" Scully (boxing trainer): "I believe that Canelo fought a good fight last time and defensively at times he actually reminded me of Mayweather. And some of his counter punching was literally brilliant. He just didn't sustain it over the full 12 rounds enough to win in my opinion. The thing is, as good as he was last time against a highly formidable opponent, it would take a great deal for him to reach that stride again. I'm guessing that he doesn't quite do it and that GGG wins a relatively strong decision."
Evan Young (boxing sharp): "GGG had a fight in May (and a training camp) in which he looked good in and appeared in very good shape. For Canelo, it will be a full year since he fought GGG and that was his last fight. I do think Canelo's physicality could be diminished to a degree. Although his skills and quickness will likely be on point, I think GGG will look to start faster in this redux and with the possible advantages that I see looming, I think he gets it done this time, including on the official scorecards should they be necessary. I'll say GGG by unanimous decision, perhaps 9-3 or 8-4 in rounds or even a possible late-rounds stoppage."
Jim Karas (boxing sharp): "Both fighters say they are going after the KO. Conventional wisdom suggests that should favor the bigger puncher in Golovkin. However, it was Canelo who was getting the better of the toe-to-toe exchanges in rounds 10-12 when we left off. Even with all this KO talk, it's tough to see a stoppage here as both are defensively responsible with granite chins. The winner of this fight will probably be the fighter who makes the correct adjustments. I think we see a bit more of that aggressive approach Canelo showed late in the first fight mixed in, and that will be the difference in this fight. I have the underdog Canelo winning a closely contested decision."
Michael Mohan (boxing sharp): "While the 2017 fight was a [split] draw, I believe GGG won 116-112. This time around, Canelo decision at +180 is the play. Canelo will have the advantage in this rematch as he is able to adapt to GGG's fight style better than GGG can adapt to his. Canelo will be more active than the first fight and land clearer shots. I strongly believe the result will be Canelo by unanimous decision."
Tale of the tape
Golovkin: The 36-year-old fighting out of Kazakhstan is currently ranked No. 2 in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings. He has an impeccable 38-0-1 record, with an amazing 34 KOs. The only blemish (of sorts) is the highly questionable draw last September versus Alvarez. GGG has more than exceptional power and sports an 87 percent knockout average. He tied Bernard Hopkins for 20 successful title defenses last May when he stopped Vanes Martirosyan via second-round KO. GGG has a crowd-pleasing style of "seek and destroy" and possesses a wicked jab, a vaunted body attack in conjunction with a more than sturdy chin. He is trained by the more-than-capable Abel Sanchez, and looks to right the wrong he feels happened to him last September with that draw.
Alvarez: The 28-year-old fighting out of Guadalajara, Mexico, is the face of boxing. Known by his nickname Canelo, which translates to cinnamon in Spanish because of his dark red hair, he's already had 52 fights at such a young age. He turned pro at the ripe age of 15 as he couldn't find formidable competition. The only loss on his record was a unanimous decision to future Hall of Famer Floyd Mayweather in 2014. He rebounded with seven wins in a row before being awarded a split draw vs. Golovkin last September. He is the lineal middleweight champion of the world via his UD win over Miguel Cotto in 2015. Canelo has very fast hands, very good power and has shown to have a great chin, as he was one of only five opponents to see the final bell vs. GGG.
Betting the fight
The Panel is split 5-5. As I mentioned in the first fight, the judges concerned me and I was certainly ahead of the curve. I was very confident GGG could beat Canelo and I feel he did. Now it's a year later and there are many moving parts to this fight, with suspensions and uncommon trash talk between both camps. I favor GGG with one small concern: Is GGG the same fighter at 36 that he's been in the past? I am going to split the panel and go with GGG.
Pick: GGG to win -140