The 2018 NFL season is finally upon us, as the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Atlanta Falcons in a rematch of last year's playoff game.
Here are our best bets on the game from Warren Sharp and Mike Clay.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
Total: 45
PickCenter public pick: 66 percent on Atlanta
Sharp: Defending Super Bowl Champions aren't supposed to be disrespected like this by the market. Since the NFL began opening the season with these teams in prime time at home, 11 of these defending Super Bowl Champions started the very same quarterback who won the Super Bowl in their Week 1 game.
The defending champs were all favored by over 3 points, (an average of 5.5 points) and all took public money. Until the Philadelphia Eagles. While the line opened at 4, both the public and the sharp bettors bet against the Eagles and on the Falcons, lowering the line.
So why are the Eagles favored by only 1 point at most books? For one, there are other losses. Philadelphia is playing without Alshon Jeffery and Trey Burton, plus Carson Wentz won't be starting. And the Falcons defense has had an entire offseason to plan to defend the Eagles RPOs.
For the Eagles defensively, Nigel Bradham is suspended for this game and his loss a big reason for concern when the Eagles use variant sets and roll out two-back personnel groupings. There are also questions surrounding Nick Foles, and whether he can replicate the playoff magic from last season. Meanwhile, the Falcons improved offensively during the season last year, and Steve Sarkisian seemed to improve his play calling on early downs.
Without Jeffery to target, the Eagles will need to get Foles settled into a rhythm. Additionally, with this game likely to be close throughout and perhaps even seeing the Eagles trail at points, Foles could be passing more than the Eagles otherwise would hope. In the playoffs, Foles connected with Nelson Agholor on 15 of 18 targets, delivering a very high catch rate.
I do think the Falcons have an excellent chance to stay close and a very good chance to win this game outright, but I see absolutely no value on this burnt number. The Eagles -1 means the Falcons would be about 5-point favorites in Atlanta. The Falcons were only favored by five points last year at home to teams like the Bills, Dolphins and Buccaneers, and they lost two of those 3 games outright. At this number, I'd pass on the game.
Pick: Pass (Agholor over 4.5 receptions)
Prop bet
Will Julio Jones score a TD? Yes (+120) or No (-140)
Clay: Touchdowns are tough to predict and if you're making a bar bet straight up, and you almost always want to go "no" for rushers and receivers. However, Jones' underwhelming touchdown production in recent seasons has many docking him in the department entering the 2018 season. That's a mistake.
From 2014 to 2016, Jones totaled 20 touchdown catches (16th-most in the NFL) despite only 19 end zone targets (52nd). In 2017, Jones was limited to three scores, but handled 16 end zone targets (eighth-most). After several seasons of limited usage near the goal line, Jones' role changed significantly in Sarkisian's first season. If not for variance/bad luck, Jones would've had closer to 8 or 9 touchdowns.
Jones gets the Eagles this week, who do not present a particularly intimidating presence at corner. In fact, Jones was targeted 15 times when these teams met in last season's divisional playoff round.
History suggests Jones is a near lock for a massive increase in touchdowns this season, assuming his role is roughly the same. Take advantage now before everyone else catches on.
Recommendation: Yes (and consider over 87.5 receiving yards as well)