Ultimate NFL betting preview: Best bets for all 32 teams

Green Bay Packers

Super Bowl odds: 12-1 (opened 10-1)
Win total: 10 (O -120/U EV)
FPI projection rank: 8
FO DVOA projection rank: 7
FO schedule rank: 25

Sharp: The 2018 Packers need to fix a number of little things, but I'm betting they don't.

The NFL average is a 21 percent target share to running backs, but Green Bay targeted its backs on fewer than 15 percent of early downs in the past three years, lowest in the league. Simply designing more early-down running back passes would spike the Packers' offensive efficiency while enhancing Green Bay's other weapons by forcing defenses to at least account for the possibility of running back targets.

They also need to run more on second-and-short. The past two years, no team runs less than the Packers on second-and-short. But in Aaron Rodgers' starts, they produce a 75 percent first-down rate when rushing compared to a 51 percent rate when passing.

And they need to relax their overuse of three-plus WR sets inside the 5-yard line (over 90 percent). But overall, Rodgers attempted 91 percent of his throws in 11 personnel the past two years, so the chances we see new formations to specifically feed Green Bay's new tight ends seem small.

Fixing the "little things" is especially important in a loaded NFC. Of the nine teams with better than 20-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, seven play in the NFC. Of the seven highest over/unders, five teams play in the NFC. If the Packers are going to have a shot this year, they can't let Rodgers do it all himself again. They need Mike Pettine to rescue the defense and Mike McCarthy to make more analytically sound decisions on offense. But the ceiling on this team is extremely high with a healthy Rodgers.

Sharp's pick: Super Bowl matchup of Green Bay vs. New England +3050

Kacsmar: Rodgers looked to be in MVP form again after carrying the Packers to late wins over the Bengals and Cowboys on the way to a 4-1 start. Then he broke his collarbone against Minnesota and the season was all downhill from there, snapping Green Bay's postseason streak at eight seasons (2009-2016). The team had to improve beyond just getting Rodgers back, and one of the biggest moves could be the addition of Pettine as its defensive coordinator.

While Rodgers now has Jimmy Graham at tight end, this isn't one of the strongest offensive casts he's ever had, especially after the team said goodbye to Jordy Nelson. The balance will have to come from the defensive side of the ball, where the Packers actually signed a big name in free agency (Muhammad Wilkerson). The biggest difference should be in the secondary, where Green Bay is loaded with young talent from recent drafts: Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, Josh Jones and Josh Jackson should all contribute heavily this season. Bring Rodgers back with a halfway decent defense and an easy schedule, and there's a decent chance that the Packers can get back to doing big things in the postseason.

Green Bay has surpassed 10 wins only once in the past five seasons (12-4 in 2014). Granted, two collarbone injuries to Rodgers had something to do with that (2013 and 2017), but his health is not guaranteed, and the team has been struggling even with him in recent years. The Packers have a fine shot to return to the postseason, but 10-6 may be Green Bay's ceiling this year.

FO over/under pick: Pass

Minnesota Vikings

Super Bowl odds: 10-1 (opened 10-1)
Win total: 10 (O -140/U +120)
FPI projection rank: 6
FO DVOA projection rank: 5
FO schedule rank: 16

Sharp: The 2017 Vikings led at halftime in 12 of 16 games, and won 11 of them. Mike Zimmer was terrific at second-half adjustments and the team rarely trailed.

In 2018, I'm excited to see how Dalvin Cook looks in his return from ACL surgery. With Jerick McKinnon (49ers) vacating a ton of running back touches, Cook's lone backup is pedestrian grinder Latavius Murray. Murray did record a passable 44 percent success rate off the bench last year, but he wasn't nearly as effective as Cook. Albeit against the NFL's fifth-softest schedule of run defenses in Weeks 1-4, Cook produced a 54 percent success rate and 53 percent early-down success rate. Those metrics ranked 10th and 11th in the league, respectively.

I'm also excited to see new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo's scheme after he learned under Doug Pederson and Frank Reich in Philadelphia. As Eagles quarterbacks coach, DeFilippo had hands-on knowledge of Carson Wentz's Year 2 breakout and journeyman Nick Foles' magical postseason run. With DeFilippo's creativity, an elite supporting cast, and feeling he doesn't have to do everything himself because of Zimmer's stout defense, new quarterback Kirk Cousins is set up for his most productive year. Cousins' ceiling is especially high in the red zone, where Zimmer's defense will consistently get him short fields.

Sharp's lean: Over 10 wins

Kacsmar: Case Keenum had the kind of breakout season in Year 6 that journeyman quarterbacks only dream about. He led the league in passing DVOA, and even had a miracle playoff win over the Saints after Stefon Diggs shocked the world with a 61-yard touchdown as time expired. Then Keenum threw a bad pick-six in Philadelphia in the first quarter of the NFC Championship Game and everything was downhill from there. The Vikings failed to host a home Super Bowl and Keenum was off to Denver, leaving one of the most talented rosters in the league behind.

The thought process has been that if Zimmer's staff can get the best out of Teddy Bridgewater (2015), Sam Bradford (2016) and Keenum (2017), then why couldn't it do the same with a more consistent passer in Kirk Cousins?

Cousins has outstanding wide receivers (Diggs and Adam Thielen), gets Cook back at running back and the defense was one of the best last year with stars at every level. Cousins always kept Washington's consistently injured rosters near .500, so why couldn't he do better than that with this roster? Our only concern would be that Minnesota was unusually healthy last year, but there's still so much talent throughout this roster that an injury or two shouldn't derail the season.

Zimmer has gone 11-5 and 13-3 in two of the past three seasons. With Cousins at quarterback, this offense should be able to sustain a lot of the efficiency it had last season as long as the offensive line, the only real roster weakness, holds up.

FO over/under pick: Over 10

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Super Bowl odds: 14-1 (opened 16-1)
Win total: 9.5 (O -120/U EVEN)
FPI projection rank: 7
FO DVOA projection rank: 9
FO schedule rank: 2

Sharp: The 2017 Falcons' offense was hardly a dud, but it barely left the ground compared to 2016 and it left us in the analytics community scratching our heads to figure out what went wrong. The personnel was essentially the same, and Atlanta faced a much easier schedule. Without getting into too much detail, the issue was simple.

First-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian didn't target Julio Jones on first down enough, they didn't call enough deep shots on first down and called far too many targets to Jones on the short-right area of the field. After recording a league-best 121.0 first-down passer rating with Kyle Shanahan in 2016, Ryan's rating plummeted to 86.4 under Sarkisian. Ryan's first-down yards per attempt fell from 10.8 in 2016 to 7.9 last year. Atlanta also ignored Jones in scoring position over the first half of last year.

Atlanta appeared to fix these issues. I genuinely believe Sarkisian improved as his first year as Falcons offensive coordinator progressed. Atlanta didn't light up the scoreboard, but the team played six of its final seven games against top-10 pass defenses, including four top-five groups.

Apart from new RG Brandon Fusco and rookie WR Calvin Ridley, Falcons' offensive starters this year are identical to theirs to 2017. Their biggest 2018 problem may not be Sarkisian, but a pass-defense schedule that Matt Ryan must face which is much tougher than last year's. The Falcons should be able to lean on their run game, however, and Atlanta figures to find itself back in the playoffs if Sarkisian solves his offense's red zone woes.

Sharp's pick: Make playoffs -140

Verhei: There's a good chance that the Falcons will be a better football team in 2018 than they were in 2017 but win fewer games. Instead of playing the AFC East, which includes the Patriots and three bad teams, they must play the AFC North, where the Ravens, Bengals and even (maybe) the Browns could join the Steelers as playoff contenders. Instead of playing the NFC North, they will play the NFC East, home of the Super Bowl champion Eagles, underrated Washington and a Dallas club looking to rebound. There's also a daunting game against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Green Bay, and that's not even counting Atlanta's own division, where the Saints and Panthers also made the playoffs last year.

The Falcons should be fine on offense. Since Ryan was drafted in 2008, only New England, New Orleans, Green Bay and Philadelphia have scored more points than Atlanta. The defense is more of a question mark. There is plenty of talent here, but so far the likes of Grady Jarrett, Vic Beasley, Takk McKinley, Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Desmond Trufant and the rest have yet to jell into a dominant unit.

If all the pieces fall into place, Atlanta seems capable of hitting the over here and even winning the division. But that's what we said last year, and we're still waiting for those young defenders to develop. At this point it's fair to wonder if that will ever happen.

FO over/under pick: Under 9.5

Carolina Panthers

Super Bowl odds: 30-1 (opened 20-1)
Win total: 8.5 (O +110/U -130)
FPI projection rank: 11
FO DVOA projection rank: 16
FO schedule rank: 1

Sharp: I've called Cam Newton a "frontrunner" before, and that remained the case in 2017. When Newton starts hot and gets rolling early, we see his fun-loving nature. He'll run over you, laugh, then throw a 45-yard touchdown pass on the next play. But when pressure gets to him or he throws an early pick, Newton tends to get too down on himself, and it's hard to right the ship. Over the past five years, Carolina is 45-8 with a halftime lead but just 9-24-1 when tied or losing at the half. Newton's 85 percent win rate when leading at the half is far above league average (77 percent).

Although the Panthers have historically been a run-first team that tries to punch the ball down opponents' throats and play great defense, they need to figure out more optimal ways to build leads. They can resume run-heavy offense after gaining those leads. But it's a first-half race to a lead, and Carolina's most-efficient means is for Newton to pass early and more often than he has in the past. Early-down passes followed by later-down runs will be optimal for the Panthers.

The Panthers' 2017 defense ranked No. 2 in early-down success rate and No. 7 in efficiency against the NFL's second-toughest schedule of offenses; their offense faced the eighth-easiest pass defenses and the third-easiest pass rushes. In 2018, I project the Panthers to face a top-10 schedule of pass defenses and the 14th-most difficult schedule of pass rushes. I love Christian McCaffrey in fantasy, but the Panthers have a difficult schedule.

Sharp's pick: Miss playoffs -180

Verhei: Few teams in the NFL have more obvious strengths and more obvious weaknesses than Carolina. Newton already has one MVP award, and every time he runs for a touchdown he breaks his own record for most rushing scores by a quarterback. McCaffrey is dangerous as both a runner and a returner, and he'll be joined in the backfield by C.J. Anderson, who averaged 4.4 yards per carry in five years in Denver. The front seven has stars all over the place, from Julius Peppers, Kawann Short and Dontari Poe, to Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson.

But then you look at the wide receivers, where first-round rookie D.J. Moore looks like the top weapon by default. The offensive line still features both Kalil brothers, journeyman Amini Silatolu and is beset by injuries already. The secondary is comprised of one good corner (James Bradberry), a handful of spare parts from other teams and a pair of Day 2 draft picks in Rashaan Gaulden and Donte Jackson. This is an uneven roster -- one that's strong enough to roll over bad teams, but with enough flaws that good teams will pick it apart.

The Panthers will have to go into battle against the Saints and Falcons twice each, plus face the Super Bowl champion Eagles, the Super Bowl favorite Steelers and perennial playoff contenders such as Baltimore, Dallas, Detroit and Seattle. On paper, this is the NFL's hardest schedule, and we don't think the Panthers will be up to the task.

FO over/under pick: Under 8.5

New Orleans Saints

Super Bowl odds: 14-1 (opened 16-1)
Win total: 9.5 (O -140/U +120)
FPI projection rank: 5
FO DVOA projection rank: 3
FO schedule rank: 4

Sharp: Fewer people are talking about Drew Brees heading into 2018 than at any time in recent memory, primarily due to his poor fantasy production in 2017. But that wasn't even close to telling the story. His 8.1 yards per attempt was his highest since 2011 and his 1.5 percent interception rate was a career best. His 72 percent completion rate was a career best and set the NFL record. And his 103.9 passer rating was his best since 2013.

Yet, all the talk was of the run game and the defense. Both deserve massive praise and were major factors in the Saints making the playoffs, but I think the passing game will do more of the lifting in 2018. The Saints had the excellent fortune of acquiring WR Cameron Meredith, and added back Ben Watson at tight end, a player who caught 74 passes for them in 2015 before heading to Baltimore for two seasons. In addition, the Saints face the eighth-most difficult run defenses, after facing the 20th-rated run defenses in 2017.

They face four bottom-10 teams in the first five weeks, but from Week 8 onward, New Orleans draws four top-10 teams in a five-week span (Vikings, Rams, Eagles, Falcons) and overall has the NFL's most difficult schedule in the season's second half. The offenses they draw during this stretch are cumulatively the toughest any defense will face, and Brees will have his work cut out against a tough slate of defenses, as well. The Saints play three prime-time games in four weeks between Weeks 12-15, and two are on the road. (New Orleans is 0-3 in road prime-time games since 2016.)

Sharp's lean: Make playoffs -180

Verhei: Brees completed 72 percent of his passes last year, the all-time single-season record and the fourth time he has hit the 70 percent threshold. He has thrown for 5,000 yards or more five times -- more than every other quarterback ever, combined. Yet he remains the most under-rated all-time great player at the game's most important position ever. That's partly because he has been overshadowed by Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, and partly because his defenses have usually been among the worst in the league, making each and every win a monumental achievement.

Last year was the exception, as rookies such as Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams joined Cameron Jordan and other veterans to form one of the NFL's better stop units. Between that defense, that quarterback and other young stars such as Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, the Saints won the NFL's toughest division and came within one missed tackle of reaching the conference championship game.

Virtually the whole gang is back for another try in 2018, but between the Falcons, Panthers and Buccaneers, the NFC South still looks like the conference's toughest division. New Orleans' out-of-division schedule includes Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Minnesota and the Rams. We think that 9.5-win line is fair for this team, and we don't have enough faith in New Orleans to meet it or fall short. Stay away from this bet.

FO over/under pick: Pass

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Super Bowl odds: 300-1 (opened 40-1)
Win total: 6.5 (O +130/U -150)
FPI projection rank: 28
FO DVOA projection rank: 27
FO schedule rank: 3

Sharp: The biggest issue holding back the Buccaneers is coaching. Case in point: In the first quarter of games last season, the Bucs ranked No. 7 in success rate and No. 3 in passing efficiency. In the second quarter, when their game script was exhausted, they dropped to No. 30 in success rate and No. 27 in passing efficiency. A big part of that was due to lack of creativity. In the first quarter, they juggled their personnel a ton, using 11 personnel just 38 percent of the time (12 personnel 46 percent, 13 personnel 10 percent). But in the second quarter, they used 11 personnel on 75 percent of their passes and 12 personnel the other 25 percent.

Jameis Winston is suspended the first three weeks of the season, so it will be Ryan Fitzpatrick time. The team is reluctant to target Chris Godwin as much as it should, even though Godwin posted an early-down 10.7 YPA (No. 5 in NFL) and was one of eight wide receivers with at least a 9.5 YPA and 50 percent success rate. He was also the team's most efficient receiver, finishing No. 1 in YPA, success rate and passer rating delivered.

Unfortunately, the Bucs coaching in 2018 is the same as 2017. Tampa Bay is better than last year's 5-11 record, but its 2018 schedule is outrageously difficult: They have the second-toughest overall schedule and the most difficult schedule of opposing offenses.

Sharp's pick: Under 6.5

Verhei: The Buccaneers need to push the league to realign immediately. Tampa Bay looks like the worst team in the NFC South, but it might be a wild-card contender in the AFC. It seems patently unfair to share a division with perpetual MVP candidates such as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. The Bucs, however, have fared better than you'd think against that trio. In the three years since drafting Winston, they have gone 8-10 (.444) against NFC South rivals, while going 12-16 (.429) against everyone else. And yes, Winston has been suspended for the first three games of 2018, but all is not lost. Winston has an 18-27 record (.400) as a starter in Tampa Bay, while his backup, Fitzpatrick, has gone 15-15 in the same time frame for the Jets and Bucs.

The Saints-Steelers-Eagles gauntlet to start the season is horrifying, but odds are that the Bucs will have a chance to win at least one of those games in the fourth quarter. The defense has all sorts of issues on the back end, but hopefully a rebuilt defensive line will be able to cover up a lot of those flaws. The Bucs had the NFL's worst pass rush in 2017, so they almost can't help but improve there.

If Fitzpatrick can engineer one upset to get the Bucs to 1-2, Tampa Bay will need to go only 6-7 or better with Winston to hit the over. With DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, Cameron Brate and OJ Howard in the passing game, and Jason Pierre-Paul, Vinny Curry and first-round draft choice Vita Vea joining Gerald McCoy on the rebuilt defensive line, we like the Buccaneers' chances.

FO over/under pick: Over 6.5

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Super Bowl odds: 100-1 (opened 40-1)
Win total: 6 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection rank: 27
FO DVOA projection rank: 24
FO schedule rank: 9

Sharp: The 2018 Cardinals have a completely new quarterback room headlined by Sam Bradford and No. 10 overall pick Josh Rosen. New offensive coordinator Mike McCoy designed an offense for Tim Tebow's 2011 Broncos to make the playoffs, oversaw Peyton Manning's prolific Denver years and engineered Philip Rivers' late-career renaissance in San Diego. In McCoy's 2013 offense, Rivers completed a career-high 69.5 percent of his passes at 8.5 yards per attempt. Rivers hasn't topped 7.9 YPA since.

Bradford and Rosen are in good hands, and the Cardinals should turn to Rosen sooner rather than later. Bradford signed what amounts to a one-year deal with the Cardinals, who aren't going anywhere in 2018. To compete in a division featuring Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson and Jared Goff, the Cardinals must develop their own young star quarterback -- and Rosen can't do that from the bench. The hope here is that better quarterback play and pass protection will elevate this passing game. But the biggest return is that of do-it-all running back David Johnson.

Arizona's win total is 6, a mark they'll struggle to beat against the NFL's toughest schedule. The 2018 Cardinals draw just one top-10 opponent at home (Rams) and a league-high five top-10 opponents on the road. I can already envision myself backing this year's Cardinals against the spread at home multiple times after a tough road loss that improves our line value. The back half of Arizona's schedule features four top-10 opponents in a five-week span. The Cardinals are the only team that doesn't face a single bottom-five opponent all year.

Sharp's pick: Pass

Knowles: Under new head coach Steve Wilks and McCoy, Arizona's offense will be vastly different in 2018, replacing 94.5 percent of the team's carries and pass attempts from a season ago. This is a good thing associated with the return of Johnson and the upgrade at quarterback to either Bradford or Rosen. Upgrades at those two positions alone are likely to bump Arizona's offense up to being merely below average, rather than one of the worst units in the league.

Arizona's defense was very good as usual last season, though there are a few reasons to wonder if it can continue performing at that level. Wilks brings with him a new defensive scheme, with all the uncertainty that comes with it. The Cardinals also lost Karlos Dansby, Frostee Rucker, Josh Mauro, Tyrann Mathieu and Tramon Williams, and are counting on young players like Hasson Reddick and Budda Baker to take on larger roles to compensate. While we expect to see some improvement from Arizona, it probably won't be enough to fuel a playoff push in 2018.

The return of Johnson alone will do wonders for the Arizona offense, as will an upgrade over Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton at quarterback. The scheme change and personnel drain is concerning on defense, but last year's rookie class produced some very promising young players, and Wilks' scheme keeps the same aggressive, blitz-happy style that the Cardinals have had success with in the past. In addition, consider taking "yes" on Arizona's playoff odds. While we do not have the Cardinals projected to be a playoff team in 2018, we think they're closer than the general public seems to believe, and 6-1 odds are hard to turn down.

FO over/under pick: Over 6

Los Angeles Rams

Super Bowl odds: 10-1 (opened 20-1)
Win total: 10 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection rank: 4
FO DVOA projection rank: 4
FO schedule rank: 14

Sharp: No team experienced better injury fortune than the Rams over the past two years -- a benefit that may be headed for regression. The Rams also face a tougher 2018 schedule on both offense and defense; the silver lining is that they draw their three hardest opponents (Eagles, Vikings, Packers) at home.

The Rams plundered the free-agency pool as they acquired wide receiver Brandin Cooks, nose tackle Ndamukong Suh and cornerbacks Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib and Sam Shields this offseason after paying up for wideouts Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins, left tackle Andrew Whitworth and center John Sullivan last year.

I love the Rams' talent, but I love their coaching even more with Sean McVay running the offense and Wade Phillips controlling the defense. But in the Rams' five losses that mattered -- including the playoffs and excluding Week 17 -- the common themes were losing the turnover battle, Jared Goff playing poorly and Goff taking at least two sacks. Todd Gurley played well in three of the five losses, averaging 5.5 yards per carry or better with a 57 percent success rate. But passing efficiency correlates more to wins and losses, and McVay still needs more out of Goff.

The Rams have a treasure trove at wide receiver but lack a strong tight end group, which is why they run so much of their three-wide 11 personnel. Cooks is an upgrade on Sammy Watkins (Chiefs), and Woods is coming off a breakout year despite missing four games to a shoulder injury. Woods is also one of the NFL's top blocking receivers, while Cooks ranked eighth in the NFL in yards per target on early downs (10.4) last year.

You could certainly argue McVay ran the most quarterback-friendly offense in the league last year. The key 2018 question is whether defenses will find weaknesses in the scheme after offseason film study.

Sharp's lean: Win NFC conference +450

Knowles: The Rams' turnaround in McVay's first year as head coach was nearly unprecedented. It was the second-best total and offensive turnaround in DVOA history (since 1986).

Whenever you see a huge single-season bump like that, you have to beware of regression; it's often caused not only by an increase in skill but also by an increase in luck. Teams that significantly improve in one season have a tendency to regress in the next. When these improvements come with new coaches and new quarterbacks, they tend to regress less than when they come out of the blue, but this is why we have the Rams' offense projected to come back toward the middle of the pack.

On defense, the Rams' jumped from No. 15 to No. 6 under Phillips. The Rams have added three stars to their defensive lineup, pairing Aaron Donald with Suh up the middle and bringing in Peters and Talib at cornerback. We project it to be the top defense in the league, and if the offense can again be even above average, the Rams should be a Super Bowl contender.

This is a tough one. Our forecast has the Rams averaging 9.5 wins, which is under the 10-win line. However, that's the third-highest win total we have projected, and our projections are always somewhat conservative. More than two teams are going to hit double-digit wins, as an average of 10 teams do a year, and the Rams are our top team in the NFC. Remember, the only two teams in the NFL with an active streak of 11 or more wins in a season are the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, and you should never take the over on a double-digit line unless you're certain a team belongs in that rarified air.

FO over/under pick: Pass

San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl odds: 30-1 (opened 20-1)
Win total: 8.5 (O +130/U -150)
FPI projection rank: 15
FO DVOA projection rank: 23
FO schedule rank: 23

Sharp: The 49ers enter the season as the league's second-hottest team and the energy coming out of San Francisco is tangible. Once Jimmy Garoppolo won his first game against the Bears last season, hope was born anew.

A lot of things should change in 2018, partly because of San Francisco's schedule. Last year, the 49ers offense played the NFL's most difficult schedule of opposing defenses. In 2018, the in-division defenses (and especially secondaries) of the Seahawks and Cardinals won't be as strong. The team has finally given Kyle Shanahan a talented roster of dynamic offensive chess pieces to deploy as well. The 49ers now have the league's highest-paid fullback and had the third-highest paid running back (before Jerrick McKinnon was lost for the season). Both players have dual-threat potential as rushers and receivers out of the backfield. Last year, before Garoppolo, fullback Kyle Juszczyk had a 45 percent success rate and 5.5 YPA, but with Garoppolo, the fullback had a 65 percent success rate and 10.3 YPA.

The 49ers may not have a true No. 1 wide receiver, but they have enough talent and versatility to be proficient. They have some reliable guys, some burners and some high-agility guys. They don't have a Julio Jones-style guy as Shanahan did in Atlanta, but the receivers should be good enough to make defensive coordinators worry about the offense.

Marquise Goodwin was the biggest beneficiary of Pierre Garcon's 2017 absence, and for the season he had 105 targets and a tremendous 9.2 YPA. He scored only two touchdowns, but that's not surprising given who his quarterbacks were for most of the season. Watch out for the tight ends in 2018. When targeting tight ends, Garoppolo had a 140 rating and 11.9 YPA (vs. 79.8 rating and 7.9 YPA with wide receivers).

Sharp's pick: Pass

Knowles: The 49ers might be the most-hyped team ever to have started the season 0-9 the year before, but that's what adding a potential franchise quarterback like Garoppolo will do for you. Garoppolo's small sample makes it difficult to project the 49ers as a top offense, despite the strong finish to the season, and it would be unprecedented for him to keep up that level of performance in his first full season as a starter. It's also not as if the rest of the offense is loaded with tenured, experienced talent. Outside of Garcon, San Francisco's receiving corps is young and/or unproven. It would come as no surprise if the 49ers were able to have a top offense in Year 2 of the Kyle Shanahan regime, but it's far from a guarantee.

The defense is going to have to take a significant step forward, as well. San Francisco essentially had no pass rush to speak of last season and will need some of the young defensive prospects to improve significantly. The secondary is also questionable, with the 49ers relying on Richard Sherman coming off of a torn Achilles to improve a secondary that ranked 30th in DVOA against wideouts a season ago.

Garoppolo-mania has boosted San Francisco's line to a level it hasn't hit in years. If the offense clicks as well as it did in the small sample size of December, it's a legitimate possibility, but let's not go overboard just yet. Even if Garoppolo is as good as advertised, San Francisco still has plenty of question marks at edge rusher, offensive line and cornerback. Things are looking up in San Francisco, but the Niners might be a year and a draft class away from contending for the playoffs in a very tough NFC.

FO over/under pick: Under 8.5

Seattle Seahawks

Super Bowl odds: 60-1 (opened 20-1)
Win total: 7.5 (O EVEN/U -120)
FPI projection rank: 18
FO DVOA projection rank: 11
FO schedule rank: 13

Sharp: This offseason the Seahawks surprisingly hired Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator. In 2010, the league implemented a set of passing-friendly rules, and in this new era Schottenheimer has underperformed.

But Schottenheimer isn't even the Seahawks' most concerning change from 2017. Defensively, they were a shell of their 2016 selves last year, primarily due to injury. After ranking as the fourth-healthiest defense in 2016, Seattle ranked 22nd in 2017, losing key secondary players in cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Kam Chancellor, who each played only nine games. A once-reliable defense moved from No. 5 overall in 2016 to No. 26 in 2017. Without Sherman, defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson, defensive ends Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril and Chancellor, the unit that last year had the fourth-highest cap figure will have an approximately league-average allocation this year.

While the first month will be manageable, the Seahawks will face one of the most difficult schedules of opposing offenses starting in Week 5, with two games apiece against the Rams and 49ers, one-offs with the Packers, Vikings, Chiefs and Chargers, and road dates against the Raiders, Lions and Panthers.

Sharp's pick: Under 8.5 wins

Knowles: The Seahawks are going to look mighty different this season. They've replaced both coordinators and parted with Sherman, Bennett, Richardson, Jimmy Graham, Paul Richardson, Avril and Chancellor. The era of the Legion of Boom is over.

On offense, the Seahawks have gone all-in on revitalizing a rushing game that produced the second-worst red zone rushing DVOA we've ever recorded. The success of Seattle's offense, in large part, depends on a potential turnaround by the offensive line under new coach Mike Solari. Otherwise, it will be another season of Russell Wilson scrambling away from rushers trying to find Doug Baldwin, and Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny thudding into loaded boxes up front.

There's more to like on defense. While the players Seattle lost are nearly irreplaceable, the Seahawks have added quite a few potential contributors over the past few drafts, and Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright and Justin Coleman are all still around. Though the young talent has some very large shoes to fill, there's the potential for this unit to get back to the top 10 sooner rather than later.

By our projections, this is a fairly simple over. We have the Seahawks at 8.3 wins, well over the 7.5 line set by Vegas. But, as we say every year, a few of our projections will look strange to you and a few of them look strange to us. This one falls firmly in the latter category.

There's a lot of defensive value to replace in one offseason, and it's likely that at least a few of those young players won't take the needed step forward in 2018. Color us hugely skeptical that Schottenheimer, with only one top-15 offense in nine seasons as a coordinator, is the guy to turn the offense around. It's not hard to imagine the defense being a terror once again and the running game simply being run-of-the-mill bad rather than disastrous, leading to a return to contention for Seattle. It's also not hard to imagine the bottom falling out, and a full rebuild beginning in earnest next offseason. Steer clear of this one.

FO over/under pick: Pass

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Super Bowl odds: 300-1 (opened 100-1)
Win total: 5.5 (O +120/U -140)
FPI projection rank: 32
FO DVOA projection rank: 32
FO schedule rank: 15

Sharp: While Bills fans won't want to hear that their lone playoff trip in two decades was undeserved, facts and statistics show the 2017 Bills went 0-6 in regulation when tying or losing the turnover battle, and an otherworldly 8-2 when winning the turnover battle with 5-of-8 wins decided by one score.

The Bills' 2017 metrics were horrendous. Their offense ranked dead last in early down success rate -- my most reliable team-efficiency analytic -- and their defense finished 27th in EDSR. The offense ranked average or worse in 11 of 13 metrics. Defensively, Buffalo won its EDSR battle in three of 16 games -- with wins against the Jets and Dolphins twice, all by narrow margins.

The context was even worse when considering Buffalo's efficiency flopped even against the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the league, including the NFL's softest pass defense slate and seventh-softest rush defense slate.

Ex-quarterback Tyrod Taylor was not above scrutiny, but he played a big role in Buffalo's 9-7 finish simply by limiting turnovers. Interceptions and lost fumbles would be catastrophic to Sean McDermott's conservative team. Taylor recorded a 1.29 percent interception rate, second-best in the league during that span behind only Tom Brady. With rookie Josh Allen the projected starter, it's noteworthy that over the past five years, the NFL's average interception rate for rookie quarterbacks is 2.95 percent, more than doubling Taylor's pick rate in three seasons as a starter.

While I'm not extremely high on offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's hire, I do think the inclusion of college concepts could provide an edge. But Buffalo must be careful how it "practices" these concepts in preseason games. The Bills will be tested early by the NFL's toughest first-half schedule.

Sharp's pick: Under 6 wins

McCown: Buffalo's secondary was completely rebuilt in the 2017 offseason. That and big years from running back LeSean McCoy and quarterback Tyrod Taylor helped make the Bills a surprise playoff contender last season. This year sees an offense made up of McCoy caretaking a bunch of rookies and false hope, paired with a defense our DVOA projections expect to regress a bit.

Taylor's offense was not a display of quarterback mastery at all times, but it worked. Rookie quarterback Josh Allen has gotten some fans and analysts excited in the preseason, but his college statistical production made our QBASE projection system do a double take. And with center Eric Wood, guard Richie Incognito and left tackle Cordy Glenn all gone from the offensive line, McCoy might not have the room to run like he did last season.

You can craft a compelling case for over if you believe in Allen. Unfortunately, we're not among those in that camp. Our forecast has the Bills as the worst team in the NFL entering the season.

FO over/under pick: Under 6

Miami Dolphins

Super Bowl odds: 80-1 (opened 60-1)
Win total: 6.5 (O -140/U +120)
FPI projection rank: 29
FO DVOA projection rank: 26
FO schedule rank: 30

Sharp: It's amazing that last year's Dolphins team won six games. Why? Their Week 1 home game against the Bucs was canceled because of a hurricane, they played Week 4 in London (which counted as a home game) and they didn't get a bye at all. The Dolphins played 16 games in a row. Their quarterback wasn't signed until two weeks into camp. They played the league's ninth-toughest schedule. Their defense allowed the fourth-most points per game. Overall, their team was third-most injured in the NFL. I could go on.

To win six games and beat three playoff teams in the Patriots, Falcons, and Titans, in addition to the Chargers, was remarkable.

With an easy schedule, the 2016 Dolphins finished 10-6. With a hard schedule and overwhelming adversity, last year's Dolphins went 6-10. In 2018, they're back in the easy-schedule mix. The Dolphins' win projection is just six games, and they are favored in five. Miami's worst 2018 stretch is Weeks 10-16, drawing the Packers, Vikings, Jaguars and Patriots. But it's certainly within the realm of possibility for the Dolphins to win enough pre-Week 14 games to beat their low win total.

Sharp's lean: Over 6.5 wins

McCown: The Dolphins had a typical Dolphins offseason. They rid themselves of two of their best players, wide receiver Jarvis Landry and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. They then replaced Landry with Danny Amendola (until he gets injured) and Albert Wilson. They replaced Suh's production with hopes that Charles Harris can provide a full season of disruption.

Despite this, the Dolphins aren't in a bad position this season. They have a few players who could break out, including running back Kenyan Drake, Harris and defensive back Xavien Howard. Hope exists that veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill can play a full season at his late-2016 form, where he produced 321 DYAR from Week 6 on. They were also blessed with a tantalizing schedule.

At an updated line of 6.5, the Dolphins have a schedule to chase. Even a mid-range outcome for the season as a whole could beat that line with some luck.

FO over/under pick: Over 6.5

New England Patriots

Super Bowl odds: 6-1 (opened 5-1)
Win total: 11 (O -120/U EVEN)
FPI projection rank: 2
FO DVOA projection rank: 2
FO schedule rank: 32

Sharp: Critical to New England's two-decade greatness is its willingness to constantly evolve. The 2016 Patriots fielded a roster with the 10th-most expensive offensive line. Last year, that cost dropped to 21st. The Patriots' 2018 line projects as cheapest in the league, after they let Nate Solder walk to the Giants in free agency. This offensive line savings allowed New England to spend more defensively on CB Jason McCourty, DE Adrian Clayborn and NT Danny Shelton. New England will have carved out a competitive advantage if it can adequately protect Brady at such a low cost.

In the three years before the 2018 NFL draft, the Patriots made just one top-50 pick. For perspective, the Saints made eight top-50 picks in that span. And it was evident the Patriots needed an infusion of youth on underpriced rookie deals. So in 2018, New England added two top-50 picks.

Part of the Patriots' beauty is balance. Last year, New England was the lone NFL team with at least six receivers in double digits for red zone targets, with at least four different rushers at double-digit red zone carries.

It will be an adjustment for the passing game without Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola, particularly the first four weeks without the suspended Julian Edelman.

They're the best-coached team in football with some of the best players in the league, are constantly looking for ways to innovate and an easy schedule yet again, thanks to the incompetence of the AFC East and general weakness of the AFC. The Patriots' only obstacle would be injuries, but they've overcome those before.

Sharp's pick: Pass

McCown: A bet against the Patriots is spitting into the wind at this point. Not only are they armed with the easiest schedule in the NFL, they've also got the best combination of coach and quarterback in the league. New England's major weakness last season was stopping the run. The Patriots will bring back middle linebacker Dont'a Hightower from a torn pectoral muscle. An offseason trade added run-stuffing the run-stuffing Shelton from Cleveland to solidify the interior line.

There is some concern about injuries and suspensions in the skill-position corps, and we understand that. Remember that Brady once dragged wide receiver Reche Caldwell to an AFC Championship Game. There are scenarios in which New England has a bad season, but they revolve around a major injury or regression from No. 12.

We'll need to see Brady regress before we believe it. And any sort of vintage Brady season should be good enough to at least push this line.

FO over/under pick: Over 11.

New York Jets

Super Bowl odds: 200-1 (opened 100-1)
Win total: 6 (O +110/U -130)
FPI projection rank: 31
FO DVOA projection rank: 30
FO schedule rank: 28

Sharp: While the Jets trailed at halftime in just seven games, they led the league in punts when trailing in the second half -- that's not a stat you want to lead the league in. The Jets had 31 punts in the second half of games when trailing, more than the 0-16 Browns. This was because of their terrible playcalling and execution in the second half when working from behind. Of their 61 drives when trailing in the second half, nearly 75 percent of them ended with a punt, turnover, by the clock running out, on downs, or by a safety.

One thing the Jets need to work on in preparation for a less-experienced QB is fixing an offensive line that ranked sixth-worst in the league last year in pass protection. They face a near equivalent schedule of pass-rushing defenses this season as they did in 2017, and overall I project them to face the third-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. But the problem is that they faced the same ranked schedule of opposing defenses in 2017 (third), and look where that got them.

A much easier schedule of offenses should allow the defense to play better. And if the defense plays better, there won't be as much required out of the offense. That's ideal for rookie Sam Darnold, as he may not be put in as many situations where he needs to pass the ball 35-plus times. I'm interested to see what new offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates implements, and what he does with largely the same team from last season apart from the QB.

Sharp's pick: Pass

McCown: The Jets have spent most of the preseason leaking their interest in pass-rushers like defensive ends Khalil Mack and Dante Fowler Jr.. It's easy to see why: By trading up in this year's draft for Darnold, they lost a bunch of picks that could have reinforced their pass rush. However, New York did bring in cornerback Trumaine Johnson from Los Angeles and appears to have a nice secondary in place.

Were it not for the major weaknesses this team has on the offensive line, at tight end and in the front seven, you could talk yourself into the Darnold hype. He was widely considered the No. 1 quarterback prospect before the 2017 season. Our QBASE projections were down on him because of a lack of college experience, but he certainly could still be a special prospect. A turnover-filled rookie season and an easy schedule worked out well for Andrew Luck in 2012.

Six wins feels right for the Jets. Rookie quarterbacks always introduce some volatility into a team's projection, and anywhere from four to eight wins wouldn't be a surprise.

FO over/under pick: Push 6

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Super Bowl odds: 30-1 (opened 40-1)
Win total: 8.5 (O -120/U EVEN)
FPI projection rank: 10
FO DVOA projection rank: 10
FO schedule rank: 19

Sharp: I'm optimistic about the Ravens because of their run blocking and rushing talent ... specifically, a Seahawks castoff. Last season, Alex Collins' 50 percent rushing success rate ranked fourth among 32 running backs with at least 150 carries, trailing only Todd Gurley II, Ezekiel Elliott and Dion Lewis. Collins faced the league's eighth-hardest run-defense schedule while Elliott and Lewis both faced easier-than-average slates. Collins' 4.6 yards-per-carry average ranked fifth among those 32 backs.

It was tremendous efficiency relative to Collins' situation. He wasn't playing with Brady, Belichick, McVay or the Cowboys' offensive line; Collins tore it up with Joe Flacco, Marty Mornhinweg and the league's most-injured line blocking for him. And their tight end corps -- a big factor in run blocking -- was sixth-most injured across the league.

Defensively, the Ravens are again poised to field one of the best units in football once Jimmy Smith returns from a four-game suspension. The 2017 Ravens were a top-10 defense by most advanced metrics and the league's best defense against wide receivers. Flacco is healthy this offseason, something that wasn't the case last year. I'm not high on Flacco, but if he's better this season than in 2016 and 2017 when the Ravens won eight and nine games, this team could exceed expectations.

Baltimore faces an easier-than-average schedule this year, featuring a far softer slate of run defenses. If the Ravens keep feeding Collins and the new pass-catching faces help improve Flacco's efficiency, this team will be set up for a better season than its projected eight-game win total.

Sharp's pick: Over 8 wins

Kacsmar: The Ravens were in the playoffs last year until Andy Dalton threw a 49-yard touchdown on fourth-and-12 in Week 17 to end Baltimore's season. John Harbaugh still coached a well-rounded team by DVOA (No. 7 in rushing offense, No. 3 in defense and No. 1 special teams), but Flacco was the least valuable quarterback relative to his team in the NFL again. He finished last in the league in yards per pass attempt (5.72). Baltimore might be the only team in the NFL of which you can say the kicker (Justin Tucker) is the team's best player.

While rookie Lamar Jackson should be the future in Baltimore, look for Flacco to remain the starter this season. The team will hope to fix the passing game with a new haul of receivers in Michael Crabtree, John Brown, Willie Snead and rookie tight end Hayden Hurst. Running back Alex Collins had a breakout year behind an offensive line that gets Marshal Yanda back, and the defense (still led by Terrell Suggs) is projected to remain one of the best in the league. The return of CB Tavon Young should give the Ravens one of the deepest secondaries in the league (even with Smith suspended the first four games).

The home schedule looks very favorable, and Harbaugh has finished 8-8 or better in nine of his first 10 seasons as head coach. Our average simulation had Baltimore with 8.4 wins, so it's likely going to be another 8-8 or 9-7 finish for this team in a weak AFC. We'll go with the over in the hopes that Flacco takes the Jackson selection as motivation to do better with a stronger roster around him this year.

FO over/under pick: Over 8.5

Cincinnati Bengals

Super Bowl odds: 80-1 (opened 100-1)
Win total: 7 (O -135/U +115)
FPI projection rank: 25
FO DVOA projection rank: 20
FO schedule rank: 6

Sharp: Center is a highly underrated position. The league average success rate on run plays behind center is 46 percent. The Bengals managed a 41 percent success rate behind center Russell Bodine during the past two seasons and even to above-average success rates behind all other offensive line positions. They were even worse running behind center on early downs, managing a 39 percent success rate, 7 percent below league average. While the NFL average is 29 percent runs behind center, the Bengals ran behind Bodine on only 11.5 percent of carries in an effort to decrease his impact on games.

The 2018 Bengals replaced Bodine with Ohio State's Billy Price in the first round and traded for LT Cordy Glenn. Bodine's departure for Buffalo is addition by subtraction. And the Bengals face a softer 2018 slate after drawing last season's third-toughest schedule of pass rushes.

Cincinnati's 2018 rushing offense fell off against the NFL's third-toughest schedule of run defenses, coupled with Bodine's poor play. And their creativity lacked under Bill Lazor. The 2018 Bengals face an easier schedule of opposing defenses. They need their offense to play better because their defense draws a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses, specifically featuring the NFL's third-highest jump in pass offense degree of difficulty.

Apart from beating the Lions outdoors in late December, Cincinnati's other wins came against struggling quarterbacks: DeShone Kizer (twice), Jacoby Brissett (by one point), Brock Osweiler (by three) and Flacco (four-point miracle comeback). Dalton's pass protection should improve behind an upgraded offensive line and losing Bodine and facing an easier schedule should help spark Cincinnati's rushing attack.

Sharp's lean: Over 7 wins

Kacsmar: After a five-year postseason run, the Bengals missed the playoffs for the second year in a row. The 7-9 finish was tough to swallow after Cincinnati became the only team since 2016 to lose multiple games after leading by at least seven points in the final four minutes. The Bengals allowed game-tying touchdown passes to Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger before losing by a field goal. They also allowed a game-winning touchdown pass with 36 seconds left to Marcus Mariota in Tennessee. While the Week 17 win in Baltimore was miraculous, that game could well have been about Baltimore trying to deny the Bengals a playoff spot rather than the other way around, had Cincy played against Brett Hundley and Tom Savage rather than Rodgers and Deshaun Watson (like Baltimore did).

A major roster overhaul wasn't necessary, but the Bengals should be stronger on the offensive line after trading for Cordy Glenn and drafting center Billy Price in the first round. Wide receiver John Ross already showed more on one preseason touchdown against Buffalo than he did all of his catchless rookie season. If Ross can produce and Tyler Eifert stays healthy, then Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have a complete offense to work with. The defense still has some key building blocks in Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and Dre Kirkpatrick, but look for rising stars in Andrew Billings, William Jackson and Carl Lawson to continue to have an impact.

An 8-8 finish is realistic if this team can survive a September road schedule that has the Bengals in Indianapolis, Carolina and Atlanta. But with Marvin Lewis' commitment to mediocrity, the fifth-hardest schedule in the NFL and a quarterback who peaked in 2015, the Bengals seem like a push at 7-9. There are better betting options to explore in the AFC North.

FO over/under pick: Push 7

Cleveland Browns

Super Bowl odds: 80-1 (opened 100-1)
Win total: 6 (O EVEN/U -120)
FPI projection rank: 30
FO DVOA projection rank: 21
FO schedule rank: 7

Sharp: There was no excuse for this team to finish 0-16. The Browns went winless because of poor coaching, asking too much from players and egregiously poor in-game decisions. Despite going 1-31 in two years as Browns coach, Hue Jackson somehow kept Jimmy Haslam's blessing and his job. Jackson's incompetence wasn't the sole reason for Cleveland's winless year. Also to blame was defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' callous arrogance.

Over the final 14 games, Williams' defense got gashed for league highs allowed on deep passes in completion rate (50 percent) and success rate (50 percent). Cleveland was skewered for the NFL's second-worst passer rating (121) on deep passes. This was despite the Browns facing the league's fourth-easiest schedule of explosive passing offenses. Williams' "angel" strategy (playing Jabrill Peppers way off the line of scrimmage) is designed to limit big plays, but it was the worst in the league at doing so. A byproduct of the "angel" is it opens up a ton of holes underneath. The 2017 Browns also ranked last in passer rating allowed on short passes.

After a busy offseason, the 2018 Browns have a rejuvenated roster with upside and their ceiling is higher than last year. But coaching matters in the NFL. Tyrod Taylor was an underrated acquisition and posted top-seven interception rates all three seasons in Buffalo, including last year's league-best 0.95 percent clip. He threw just 16 picks across 1,236 pass attempts in Buffalo, good for a 1.29 percent INT rate that ranks second to only Brady during the past three seasons. Jarvis Landry has a limited set of skills, but he is excellent in his role. Of the 33 players who drew at least 20 targets inside the 15-yard line last season, Landry's 72 percent success rate ranked No. 1. I worry only about coaching, but this roster should hit six wins in 2018.

Sharp's lean: Lean over 6 wins

Kacsmar: Not only were the Browns the second 0-16 team ever, but they also finished a league-worst 4-12 ATS in 2017. This team blew only one fourth-quarter lead (Green Bay), so it wasn't even an unlucky 0-16 in the way that the 2008 Lions (four blown leads) were. At the very least, there is a lot of talent here after another big draft haul under new general manager John Dorsey. Whether it's the turnover-light Taylor or projected QB of the future Baker Mayfield, the Browns should no longer field the most ineffective quarterback in the league like they did a year ago (Kizer led the NFL with 22 interceptions and fumbled nine times).

If Jackson can get stability at quarterback, then the Browns have an intriguingly deep cast of skill players with Josh Gordon, Landry, Antonio Callaway, David Njoku, Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson. Myles Garrett looked the part of a No. 1 overall pick last season, and he's joined by the likes of Emmanuel Ogbah, Jamie Collins, Joe Schobert, Peppers and rookie Denzel Ward. Of course, this roster's success is still tied to the brain trust of its suspect coaching staff in Jackson, offensive coordinator Todd Haley and Williams.

The Browns are 4-49 since Thanksgiving 2014, so it's difficult to expect many wins when they kept the head coach with the 1-31 record. Our projection actually came out to an optimistic 7.5 wins, but safe money may want to look elsewhere until we see these coaches turn talent on paper into production on the field. Still, the Browns should be in that 5-11 or 6-10 mix again, a big step up from what has been a historically bad stretch.

FO over/under pick: Pass

Pittsburgh Steelers

Super Bowl odds: 10-1 (opened 8-1)
Win total: 10.5 (O +125/U -145)
FPI projection rank: 3
FO DVOA projection rank: 1
FO schedule rank: 21

Sharp: This offseason the Steelers decided not to renew the contract of six-year offensive coordinator Todd Haley and instead promoted quarterbacks coach Randy Fichtner to coordinator. Fichtner, who turns 55 this season, hasn't called plays at the NFL level. The last time he called plays was in the college ranks at Memphis in 2006, using an up-tempo spread system before it was in vogue, but that was a long time ago. So what are Fichtner's plans?

Ben Roethlisberger says the offense is completely new. Haley is now with the Browns, whom the Steelers play in Week 1, so the terminology should be new, but how will the offense vary from Haley's? The plan is to see more tempo and no-huddle offense, but the data shows the Steelers have not been substantially better in the no-huddle during the past two seasons.

In up-tempo situations, experienced play-callers will have a play ready so the quarterback can go no-huddle more easily. If it takes Fichtner time to figure out the play he wants, either Roethlisberger will call some of the plays in no-huddle or there will be fewer no-huddle options. To this point in his career, Roethlisberger hasn't exhibited a Peyton Manning-like ability to be a high-level playcaller as well as quarterback.

Defensively, the Steelers were weak against the run last year (ranking 18th in efficiency) but they had the league's toughest run offense schedule, so it's natural that they would struggle. The problem is that this season they have the second-toughest run offense schedule. Last season they also ranked 23rd in explosive run defense and 25th in explosive pass defense; this year they are facing teams considerably more explosive than their 2017 opponents.

Sharp's pick: Pass

Kacsmar: It was a different year in 2017, but the same story for the Steelers. They lost a road game to a team they should have beaten comfortably (Chicago), which hurt in their quest for home-field advantage. In their best shot to beat the Patriots for the first time since 2011, Jesse James' touchdown was overturned and Roethlisberger threw the most crushing red zone interception of his career. In the playoffs against Jacksonville, the Steelers became the first home team in NFL history to lose a playoff game after scoring more than 38 points after the defense badly faltered down the stretch following Ryan Shazier's injury.

It's a little too late, but the good news is that the James play would count as a touchdown -- we think -- in 2018. However, the same questions can remain for this team. Can it avoid its annual road letdown in Tampa Bay (Week 3) when Jameis Winston is suspended? Can the offensive stars (Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell) stay healthy and focused for a full season? We project the Steelers to have the No. 1 offense, boosting them to the top overall DVOA ranking. Can a defense that did not add many pieces in the offseason replace Shazier better than it did last year? Finally, can this team ever beat the Patriots again? They'll meet at Heinz Field in Week 15.

The Steelers have hit 11 wins in three of the past four seasons, but they're not as much of a lock for the over here as New England due to Roethlisberger's injury history. The offense has had to carry this team since 2014. This feels like a breaking-point year where the Steelers either put it all together for a Super Bowl, or everything falls apart with Roethlisberger's age, Bell's contract distractions and the lack of development on defense. I would take a chance on getting value on the under, banking on a 10-6 finish.

FO over/under pick: Under 10.5

AFC South

Houston Texans

Super Bowl odds: 12-1 (opened 20-1)
Win total: 8.5 (O -140/U +120)
FPI projection rank: 16
FO DVOA projection rank: 12
FO schedule rank: 31

Sharp: Entering 2017, the Texans had to design a specific offense for statuesque Week 1 starting QB Tom Savage. Deshaun Watson made his first NFL start at quarterback in Week 2 -- on a short week -- giving head coach Bill O'Brien minimal time to change systems to try to maximize Watson's strengths. We should see a more creative offense in 2018.

Last year's Texans were the NFL's fourth-most-injured team with the second-most-injured defensive line. Houston lost DE J.J. Watt (tibial plateau fracture) and OLB Whitney Mercilus (torn pectoral) for the year in the same Week 5 game. They had already lost many of their best defensive players that offseason or due to suspension, including cornerback A.J. Bouye, nose tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Brian Cushing. If the Texans get Watt and Mercilus back at 100 percent, with free safety Tyrann Mathieu and cornerback Aaron Colvin having been added in free agency, this defense should look much better. Last year's unit ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency, dead-last in the red zone and third-worst in explosive passing plays allowed. When a team is minus-22 in sack margin and minus-12 in turnover margin, they aren't going to win many games. The Texans managed to win four.

The 2018 schedule should help. I project it as the softest slate in the league, including the NFL's easiest schedule of both opposing offenses and opposing defenses.

My biggest concern is the offensive line, which is a mess. Watson was pressured on a league-high 48 percent of his dropbacks last season. For perspective, Drew Brees faced pressure just 23 percent of the time. To his credit, though, Watson was incredible at avoiding pressure, taking sacks on only 17 percent of his pressured dropbacks. Compare that to Andy Dalton, who faced pressure on 31 percent of dropbacks but was sacked on 23 percent of those plays. Tyrod Taylor faced pressured on 38 percent of dropbacks and was sacked on 23 percent.

Sharp's lean: Make playoffs -130

McCown: Last season the Texans introduced a brand-new concept with quarterback Deshaun Watson: offense. With Watson in the lineup, the Texans had an offensive DVOA of 13.8 percent. With Watson hurt, the Texans had a more Texans-esque DVOA of minus-24.8 percent. Projecting how much of that production Watson can deliver this season falls into the category of basic regression analysis. But even with some regression, what Watson can do in this offense for a full season should make Houston watchable for the first time since 2012.

So, a surprising amount of Houston's overall projection is tied up in players coming back from injury. Mercilus and Watt both missed most of last season. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney played the most of Houston's star rushers, but also took some time rehabbing. This team lacks depth in a lot of areas but has star power to compensate.

As long as everyone important is healthy, the Texans have a chance to make some noise. Nothing we've seen so far gives us pause on that front. No news is good news.

FO over/under pick: Over 8.5

Indianapolis Colts

Super Bowl odds: 50-1 (opened 40-1)
Win total: 7.5 (O +110/U -130)
FPI projection rank: 20
FO DVOA projection rank: 14
FO schedule rank: 29

Sharp: The Colts finished 4-12 against a stacked deck. They lost a top-two quarterback in value against the spread, started a quarterback (Jacoby Brissett) who was a third-stringer on another team, acquiring him mere days before the season. And that QB played behind the league's fifth-most-injured offensive line. Overall, Chuck Pagano's Colts were the fifth-most-injured team in the NFL. Pagano and OC Rod Chudzinski were lame ducks and their offense faced the league's fifth-most difficult schedule of defenses.

The 2017 Colts trailed at halftime in only six games. yet went 2-7 in games with a halftime lead. Last year's Colts are the only team in the past 27 seasons to lose at least seven games they led at halftime. Indianapolis' leads didn't mysteriously evaporate in the third quarter, however. The Colts led through three quarters in nine separate games, which makes the 2017 Colts the only team in the last 20 years to hold fourth-quarter leads in at least nine games, but finish no better than 4-12.

The biggest improvement the Colts made was replacing Pagano with former Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich, who understood Philadelphia's success with analytics and has vowed to bring strategies that challenge conventional NFL wisdom to Indianapolis. Reich and new OC Nick Sirianni plan to run an "aggressive, up-tempo offense."

The 2018 Colts also benefit from an easier schedule. Last year, this team faced the league's third-toughest slate of opposing defenses; this year, they face one of the easiest. The Colts also draw the league's best schedule variance from both pass and run defenses faced when comparing 2017 to 2018's forecast.

Sharp's lean: Pass

McCown: Luck is back, baby! He returns to see ... a Colts roster pretty much exactly like the one he left. The offensive line is still relying on highly-rated youngsters who haven't produced all that much at the NFL level. The non-T.Y. Hilton skill-position players are still free-agency leftovers and undrafted free agents.

The defense is still a potential dumpster fire, as patch after patch on the post-Bill Polian Colts has not taken. The only real solution they found last season was defensive end Jabaal Sheard, and the only breakout candidate is safety Malik Hooker. If we put a random name in a list of Colts linebackers, only deep observers of the team would know who it was. However, our numbers believe the Colts have a chance to bounce back a bit defensively because of how insanely bad they were on third downs last season. Indianapolis was actually above average on first downs (10th), and average on second downs (16th), but then had the worst third-down defense of any team we've tracked since the 1990 Cleveland Browns. Teams that followed that pattern tended to regress toward the mean the next season.

Questionable line. Defense that's below average but not horrendous. So, Andrew Luck, would you like to be Andrew Luck circa 2013-15 again?

Our numbers think the Colts are now fairly priced by Vegas after opening at 6.5 wins. There are reasons to doubt that Luck will be able to continue to do what he did as a youngster, and this division has gotten a lot better in his absence.

FO over/under pick: Pass

Jacksonville Jaguars

Super Bowl odds: 14-1 (opened 20-1)
Win total: 9 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection rank: 12
FO DVOA projection rank: 25
FO schedule rank: 20

Sharp: Before last season, I projected Jacksonville to face the NFL's softest slate and they indeed wound up facing the easiest cumulative opponents. I have good news for Jaguars fans: I project them to face the NFL's fourth-softest schedule this season, including an easier run-defense slate than Leonard Fournette drew last year. From the 2018 Jaguars, I'd like to see more no-huddle offense. Blake Bortles posted league highs in both completion rate (78 percent) and success rate (64 percent) on no-huddle plays in 2017. His completion rate dipped to 41st (59 percent) when huddling, with a 44 percent success rate (25th).

I'd also like to see more passing volume. Nearly half of Fournette's runs went against eight-plus man boxes. Looking only at first-half plays, last year's Jaguars went 57 percent run on first down and were one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. Fournette produced a poor 45 percent success rate on first-down carries, gaining 3.8 yards per rush. On first-half first-down passes, however, Bortles averaged 8.0 yards per attempt with a 54 percent success rate and a league-best 118 passer rating.

If the defense you're facing is playing the run, you must pass the ball. It's simply more efficient. On top of that, you may want to avoid running down your No. 4 overall draft pick (Fournette) and shortening his career by pounding him into first-down brick walls.

The Jaguars should be very good this year. I'd love to see them give the Patriots another run for the AFC crown. But they won't get there with predictable playcalling, or by using their No. 1 ground option like they did last season. They do benefit from another easy schedule and should repeat as a playoff team. They need to throw the ball more often and let their backup running backs absorb more fourth-quarter carries in blowout games to save wear-and-tear on Fournette.

Sharp's pick: Pass

McCown: The TL;DR guide to defensive regression in the eyes of FO is paramount to understanding the Jaguars.

• Offense is generally more consistent than defense, and sudden massive improvements to the defense are a thing to be skeptical of.

• Run defense tends to be a lot more stable than pass defense, and the Jaguars struggled in that area last season. Since 1988, 15 teams have ranked in the top five for overall defense DVOA but 15th or lower against the run. Only four of those teams had a top-five overall defense the following season.

• Two areas that heavily regress toward the mean from season to season are turnovers and team health. The Jaguars last season ranked third in takeaways per drive and ranked second in adjusted games lost on defense. They will likely lose more games to injury and take away fewer turnovers.

On offense, the Jaguars still use Bortles, who is not a good quarterback, as their starter. Offseason guard signee Andrew Norwell will definitely help them pound the rock, but a lot of their offensive identity involves having a lead. The Jags were 2-5 last season when they didn't score first, and won only one game they trailed at halftime. And in that game, they trailed by one point.

Our numbers tell you to expect a Bortles mutiny around Week 8, while projecting the Jaguars to be the worst team in the NFL's tightest division. Subjectively there are reasons to believe they are better than that, but nine wins is still a reach.

FO over/under pick: Under 9

Tennessee Titans

Super Bowl odds: 25-1 (opened 40-1)
Win total: 8 (O -110/U -110)
FPI projection rank: 17
FO DVOA projection rank: 15
FO schedule rank: 26

Sharp: I'm excited about the new coaching staff here, but it has its work cut out. Last year, the Titans ran a league-low 43 percent of their snaps from 11 personnel (the average was 59 percent), while new Tennessee offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur's Rams were the league's most 11-heavy team with an 81 percent snap rate. Of the Rams' 544 pass attempts last year, 500 (92 percent) came with at least three wide receivers on the field.

We're likely to see more early-down passes to backs in Tennessee. In the first half of games last year, the Rams targeted running backs at an above-average 25 percent rate on early downs, whereas the Titans had a league-low 8 percent (the average was 23 percent). On first down, the Rams threw 26 percent of targets to backs while the Titans ranked last at 6 percent. The Rams were at their most efficient on first-down passing when targeting backs, generating a 55 percent success rate -- compared with 52 percent success targeting tight ends and 46 percent targeting wide receivers.

On the other side of the ball, the Titans ranked 24th in pass defense even though they had the fourth-easiest pass-offense schedule (EDSR) and the easiest after Week 4. The Titans had the fourth-worst defense in EDSR and fifth-worst at defensing running back passes. Still, the unit has some talent, and both head coach Mike Vrabel and DC Dean Pees can get the Titans back on track. The team selected defensive players with their first three picks in the draft and added DT Bennie Logan and CB Malcom Butler in free agency.

The Titans were healthy last year and had the third-easiest schedule (based on efficiency), yet six of their nine wins were by one score. With the AFC South being even tougher this year, I'm avoiding the Titans in futures until I get a better feel for the team.

Sharp's pick: Pass

McCown: The Titans became a team that would be somewhat unpredictable in the eyes of the computers the second they fired Mike Mularkey. Vrabel is a complete rookie, as is the OC LaFleur in his role. Pees has run some defenses that our stats think well of, including last season's Ravens squad (third in DVOA).

Outside of the coaching changes, the Titans brought in running back Dion Lewis and Butler but are otherwise pretty much running it back. While they don't have a dominant defender outside of defensive tackle Jurrell Casey, there is talent on every level of the defense. The development of wide receiver Corey Davis, a 2017 first-round draft pick, will be telling for how far the Titans go this season.

A revamped passing offense built around the principles of LaFleur's mentors -- Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan -- is intriguing, and brought into the AFC South it is a tempting proposition. If you don't believe in this happening, though, push is the correct play.

FO over/under pick: Lean over 8

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Super Bowl odds: 40-1 (opened 40-1)
Win total: 7 (O -180/U +150)
FPI projection rank: 26
FO DVOA projection rank: 28
FO schedule rank: 22

Sharp: The biggest new piece is Case Keenum, whose 2017 Vikings lost to the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. Facing the NFL's seventh-hardest schedule of pass defenses last season, Keenum recorded an impressive 53 percent early-down success rate, 7.3 yards per attempt and a 95 passer rating. Trevor Siemian's 2017 EDSR was a much-worse 42 percent with a 6.5 YPA and 73 rating.

Keenum shined in a Vikings system that appears similar to Bill Musgrave's from a personnel-package standpoint. Last year's Vikings used 11 personnel on only 56 percent of plays and went with three-tight end 23 personnel 23 percent of the time.

Third-rounder Royce Freeman has won the starting job, but he'll need to hold up in pass protection -- always a challenge for rookie backs. Still, I prefer his upside to Devontae Booker.

The Broncos made major defensive and special teams upgrades in No. 5 overall pick Bradley Chubb and punter Marquette King. Imagine how King's booming punts will look in Denver's thin air as opposed to sea level in Oakland. The Broncos will replace Aqib Talib internally with Bradley Roby opposite Chris Harris at cornerback.

The AFC West has no slam-dunk favorite. If the Broncos' offense can produce enough to keep Denver's defense rested, both sides of the ball will become more efficient. It's still probably a long shot, but if Musgrave maximizes the offensive talent and Keenum maintains his 2017 level of play, the defense is good enough to keep Denver in contention for the postseason.

Sharp's lean: Make playoffs +260

Knowles: The Broncos should have a better offensive season than last year. Keenum is better than the three-headed monster Denver trotted out at quarterback last season, and the draft added much-needed skill-position depth to what entered the offseason as one of the barest cabinets in the NFL. The problem is, there's a long way to go from embarrassing to even just competent.

A significant part of Keenum's success last season in Minnesota was being put in a great situation, and Denver can't match the skill-position talent that the Vikings provided. Handing an unchallenged starting job to a 30-year-old career journeyman coming off of a career year isn't the wisest way to ensure peace and prosperity at the position, though it should at least keep the Broncos from being as embarrassing as they were in 2017.

The defense should still be at least above average, with the addition of Chubb likely to reinvigorate the pass rush. It's just no longer good enough to single-handedly generate wins, as it was in 2015 and 2016. We expect the Broncos to be an expensive veteran .500 team.

The over/under for Denver is seven wins, and our projections come out to ... 7.0 wins. If forced, take the under, as the vig is currently a bit more favorable there. The overall offensive improvement is greater than the expected decline of the defense, but a trip into winning territory seems doubtful. Seven wins feels just about right.

FO over/under pick: Pass

Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl odds: 30-1 (opened 30-1)
Win total: 8.5 (O +115/U -135)
FPI projection rank: 14
FO DVOA projection rank: 19
FO schedule rank: 12

Sharp: I have immense respect for Andy Reid because he has figured out a winning formula: The Chiefs don't beat themselves. In five years under Reid, former QB Alex Smith's interception rate was second best in the NFL. But now Patrick Mahomes is under center. If we assume Mahomes performs at league average in interception rate (2.54 percent), he will nearly double Smith's pick rate.

The Chiefs went 38-14 (73 percent) whenever Smith avoided interceptions, won only 48 percent of games when he threw one interception and 33 percent when Smith threw more. It's going to be paramount that Mahomes executes well and can avoid costly turnovers. One concerning fallout from added interceptions would be Kansas City's defense spending more time on the field. The Chiefs' defense isn't good enough to deal with more snaps or shorter fields. Last year's KC defense ranked 30th in efficiency and dead last in early-down success rate.

Last year, the Chiefs shifted from using high rates of 21 and 13 personnel to more 11 and 12 packages; they went pass heavier in 11 and 12. Kansas City also had the NFL's seventh-most injured receiver corps in 2017. The Chiefs addressed wide receiver by making Sammy Watkins the NFL's fourth-highest-paid player at his position. With Watkins and deep-threat Tyreek Hill on the field together, Travis Kelce dominating over the middle and Kareem Hunt running efficiently, the Chiefs should be more dangerous in 12 personnel than they were last season.

As excited as I am to see Mahomes, I remain concerned about a potential increase in interceptions and difficulty for the defense that would inevitably follow. Reid has a tough task to take on a freakishly gifted quarterback who believes he can make every throw and still keep Mahomes' interception rate low.

Sharp's pick: Pass

Knowles: Swapping out Smith for Mahomes gives the Chiefs a beacon of hope going forward. Going from game manager to deep-ball thrower is probably going to eventually pay off with a more dynamic offense, preventing the likes of the Chiefs' second-half fade of 2017. Mahomes was the top quarterback in the 2017 draft by our QBASE projection system, and paired with a slew of excellent skill players, the Chiefs' offense has a chance to be exciting. However, first-time starting quarterbacks often have growing pains, and Mahomes missed out on a year of experience sitting behind Smith as a rookie. It might take a season for the offense to fully realize it's potential.

Defensively, we're projecting the Chiefs to be in the mid-20s, a step in the right direction. The return of Eric Berry should help, but it's tough to assume he'll be in elite form after piling up injuries throughout his career. Swapping Marcus Peters for Kendall Fuller is at best a break-even move, and might be a downgrade with Fuller asked to play more on the outside. Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali are gone, too, making this the beginning of what looks like a long road of rehabilitation for the Chiefs' D.

While the Chiefs haven't had a losing season since Reid arrived in 2012, this might end up being an awkward transitional year for the franchise. It's an oversimplification to say the Chiefs will go as far as Mahomes' arm takes them, but his development is the single biggest question for 2018. Mahomes' preseason has been encouraging, if not spectacular, and he'll probably get better as the season goes along. Against a tough schedule, and with serious questions on the defensive side of the ball, we'd take the under for the immediate future.

FO over/under pick: Under 8.5

Los Angeles Chargers

Super Bowl odds: 12-1 (opened 30-1)
Win total: 9.5 (O -130/U +110)
FPI projection rank: 9
FO DVOA projection rank: 17
FO schedule rank: 27

Sharp: The 2017 Chargers are a great testament to the impact of coaching on wins and losses.

They made bad decisions to field goals and trusted an undrafted rookie kicker. They were run-dominant on early downs in first halves of games. These flaws were ultimately corrected, but not before it was too late. And they cost the Chargers a postseason berth. This is the problem when a team doesn't have an analytics department.

Especially in a weak AFC, last year's Chargers should have been an 11- to 12-win team. They could have hosted a playoff game in their first year in Los Angeles, but instead the Rams captured the city with more optimal decision-making. Fans don't want incompetence.

The 2017 Chargers posted a plus-12 turnover margin, plus-25 sack margin and plus-4 return-touchdown margin, yet they went 1-4 in games decided by a field goal. They dominated early-down success rate on a weekly basis. Last season's Chargers were a very good team. And they should be very good again in 2018, even with Jason Verrett and Hunter Henry lost for the season.

They do face a slightly tougher schedule, but I love the defensive pieces they added in the draft. They are favored in 10 of their first 15 games and are projected for 9.5 wins. They should have one of the NFL's top defenses, and their wideout corps is extremely deep.

Sharp's pick: Keenan Allen over 6.5 touchdown receptions (-150)

Knowles: The Chargers are more or less set at the most important positions on the roster (quarterback, edge rushers and cornerbacks). It's the middle of the defense that remains a big question, as does Los Angeles' yearly helping of extraordinary bad luck.

Eight Chargers defenders missed at least 10 tackles in 2017; no other team in the league had more than six such players. Rather than making a big splash in free agency, the Chargers are counting on a deep rookie class to turn things around. The fate of the Chargers' defense probably lies on the rookies' ability to adjust to the NFL as quickly as possible.

The Chargers would have made the playoffs last season if they could make a field goal. They suffered three blocked tries, missed five extra point attempts and were 3-of-11 on kicks beyond 40 yards in 2017. Special teams and tackling wasted great seasons by Philip Rivers, Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and Allen, but that always seems to be the case for the Chargers. Something has to go wrong. This season, it might be the injury bug, which has already cost them Henry and Verrett for the season. The Chargers are fairly thin, and a run of injuries would do them no favors.

The Chargers haven't had a double-digit win season since 2009, and it seems unlikely that this will be the season where everything finally clicks. There was a surprising lack of urgency this past offseason, with the team seemingly more than happy to ride with what it has, rather than take advantage of the short-term window provided by rookie deals for players like Bosa and Gordon. In addition, think about taking "no" on the Chargers' playoff odds, which are currently going at +130. Those are the odds you'd give to a clear divisional favorite, and while we have the Chargers with the best projected record in the division, we think it'll be a tighter race than these odds imply.

FO over/under pick: Under 9.5

Oakland Raiders

Super Bowl odds: 40-1 (opened 30-1)
Win total: 7.5 (O +120/U -140)
FPI projection rank: 23
FO DVOA projection rank: 22
FO schedule rank: 24

Sharp: One of Jon Gruden's primary objectives is to keep Derek Carr clean in the pocket. Carr suffered a broken right leg in 2016 and was hit frequently in 2017, breaking three bones in his back in Week 4. The change in tempo and throwing quickly should benefit Carr's health long-term. Gruden brought in several new WRs, including Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant -- although Bryant has already been released.

The West Coast offense should benefit Nelson, as he has lost some of his long-range speed. Over the past two years, he has ranked third in success rate (66 percent) and fourth in passer rating delivered (114) on short routes.

Next comes the run game. It's mostly the same as 2017, except for the addition of new offensive line coach Tom Cable. He brings an affinity for pure zone blocking, which is also a function of the modern West Coast offense. However, the Raiders' offensive line, at least the 2017 version, was far more proficient using power blocking. Gruden drafted two new tackles in his first three picks of the draft and commented that the Raiders struggled too much at the tackle position last season. The elephant in the room is whether Cable will teach a bad outside zone team to become better or if he and Gruden will adapt more of a pro-style offense and allow his linemen to do what they do best.

Defensively, there are concerns, especially with the Raiders trading away Mack to the Bears. Oakland's defense ranked 29th in defensive efficiency last year and 30th against the pass. Losing their best pass-rusher isn't likely to help those rankings in 2018.

Sharp's pick: Amari Cooper receiving yards over 975.5 (-130)

Knowles: Break out the puka shell necklace and frost your spikey tips, the Raiders are turning back the clock to 2000 with new/old head coach Jon Gruden. Gruden has brought with him a hodgepodge of iffy veterans and risky rookies, coupled with a selection of coaches and sons of coaches from his Tampa Bay days and garnished with a healthy dose of old-school, out-of-touch decision-making.

There will be plenty of new faces in Oakland this year, though quite a few of them saw their heyday at least three or four seasons ago. Nelson, Doug Martin, Leon Hall and Derrick Johnson highlight the Raiders' offseason acquisitions, which would have been really impressive in 2012. The result is an old, expensive and frankly ordinary-looking roster. That has been Gruden's modus operandi. His best Raiders teams were filled with 30- and 40-somethings, as was his Super Bowl-winning Bucs team. However, his poor teams at the end of his Tampa Bay years also were filled with underwhelming veterans, and Gruden has a poor track record with young talent.

In addition, many of the moves Gruden has made have either not worked out (see: trading for, and then releasing, Bryant) or actively harmed the team's chances in 2018 (see: Mack headed to Chicago). The trip back to the past has so far been an underwhelming one for Raiders fans.

Oakland's projected wins in Football Almanac 2018 was a half-game clear of this, but that was before the Mack trade. His absence could be the difference between Oakland's defense being ordinarily bad and very bad indeed. The schedule is fairly forgiving, and Carr should look better than he did after the back injury he suffered against the Broncos last season, but Gruden's return to Oakland is off to a rocky start.

FO over/under pick: Pass