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Betting preview: Win-total, title odds for Texas

Chris Warren III can top 1,000 yards rushing this season. AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to give you betting previews of the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season-win-total bets and national title odds.

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 14.

Texas Longhorns

National title odds: 40-1 (opened 20-1)
Season win total: 8
FPI win total projection: 7.5


Phil Steele

Strengths: The Longhorns rank in my top 28 in all eight position categories, with top-15 units being the offensive line, receivers and defensive backs. This is a deep and talented team that is ranked No. 11 in the country on my experience chart.

Weaknesses: It will be tough to replace D'Onta Foreman and his 2,028 rushing yards, but I do expect Chris Warren III to top 1,000 this season, so that won't hurt as much as it would appear. The defensive line looks great getting off the bus, so they just have to play up to their talent level. There isn't a lot to criticize here.

Over/under (8): Eight is the number I would have put Texas at for the year. I have them as an underdog in three games and a pick 'em in two others. No play for me.

National title odds (40-1): Tom Herman inherits a very talented team, and while he was at Houston, he went a perfect 6-0 versus ranked teams. I do rate Texas as one of the five legitimate contenders in the Big 12. The odds are skewed here, though. Texas was just 5-7 last year and should be priced more in the 80-1 or 100-1 price range. While the Longhorns should be much improved, just making the playoff should be higher than 40-1, let alone winning the title.


"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (8): I love the Longhorns' new head coach, and with that said, I am already on record stating that the Horns will go to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum and beat USC in early September. There is plenty of talent for UT to be the team to beat in the Big 12 this year. It returns 17 starters, including possibly the best offensive lineman in America in Connor Williams and quarterback Shane Buechele (over 2,900 yards and 21 scores last year). You can expect the arrival of Herman to produce a way more cleaner offense, meaning fewer negative plays. I'll guarantee the turnover count gets cut down. What might be my favorite part of the Herman hire is that he brought defensive coordinator Todd Orlando with him. Orlando's defenses have been among the best in the country at creating turnovers. I expect huge things from the Longhorns this year, so give me the over.

National title odds (40-1): It's worth a future on winning the conference title and making the College Football Playoff, but maybe not winning the title.


Chris Fallica

Over/under (8): The world will be all over Texas this year. I know the Longhorns have recruited well, but I need to see it on the field. I don't think they will win at USC, at TCU or against Oklahoma, despite the recent close games with the Sooners. If Texas does drop all three of those games -- and FPI gives them less than a 35 percent chance to win in all three -- do you trust the Longhorns to win every other game to go 9-3? Remember, they have lost 6 of 8 to Kansas State and 4 of 6 to Oklahoma State. Plus, road games at Iowa State, Baylor and West Virginia are far from easy wins. Despite 17 returning starters, I see 8-4 as a best-case scenario here in Year 1 of the Tom Herman era with an eye toward bigger and better things in 2018. I'd lean under.

National title odds (40-1): As is the case with Michigan, Texas is a huge public team and the odds of making it through that schedule undefeated or even with just one loss are extremely slim. I'd need longer than 40-1 on a team that hasn't even made a bowl game the past two years to make it worth my while.

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