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Betting preview: Win total, title odds for Penn State

Saquon Barkley and Penn State are in good position for more success this season. Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire

With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to give you betting previews of the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season-win-total bets and national title odds.

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 22.

Penn State Nittany Lions

National title odds: 20-1 (opened 25-1)
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 9.8


Phil Steele

Strengths: Penn State has a pair of Heisman candidates in quarterback Trace McSorley and running back Saquon Barkley. The offensive line has 87 career starts, and the defensive line is stocked three deep, with some capable true freshman outside of that. They also have my No. 8-rated special teams.

Weaknesses: Penn State is an entirely different team than the one head coach James Franklin started with. When I first talked to him in 2014, the Nittany Lions were basically one deep at every position. That's the total opposite now. Their lowest-rated unit in my national rankings is defensive back, which I have at "just" No. 26, so I guess I will call that a weakness.

Over/under (9.5): Penn State will be an underdog when it travels to Columbus the week after hosting Michigan, with Ohio State coming off a bye. It will likely be favored at both Iowa and Northwestern in its other two toughest road trips. The Michigan home game will likely be a "White Out," and the Nittany Lions will be fresh off a bye, while catching Michigan on a second straight road game. I have them favored in 11, so I like the over.

National title odds (20-1): No one expected Penn State to win the Big Ten last year, but it did, and now it will be preseason top-10. I would list its odds at more of 10-1, as this team is deep and talented at every position, so it is worth a play at 20-1.


"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

O/U (9.5): Well, well, it's my Nittany Lions. The team I rode to the ground as they magically covered their last 10 games of the season. Unbelievable! The doubters this year will point to a stretch of games that starts Oct. 7 with a trip to Evanston and continues with an expected "White Out" home game versus Michigan, followed by trips to Columbus and East Lansing. Those doubters will say Penn State will not be as "lucky" this year. I say it will be good enough to withstand its schedule, setting up a monster matchup in Columbus with the Buckeyes, in what might be the only game in which the Nittany Lions are an underdog.

There is so much to love about the team, including McSorley and Barkley, who accounted for over 45 of the team's touchdowns last year. I can easily see this team finishing 11-1. Over 9.5 wins.


Chris Fallica

O/U (9.5): The reigning Big Ten champions beat Ohio State in State College last year but now have to travel to Columbus this year the week after a home game with Michigan. And after the one-two punch of Michigan and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have to visit East Lansing. Now nobody is confusing this Spartan team with the one that reached the Rose Bowl and CFP, but that game looms as a major upset trap. McSorley and Barkley -- who is the best player in the Big Ten -- return, but WR Chris Godwin is gone. Penn State projects to win 10 games per FPI, assuming a near-certain loss at Ohio State (14 percent chance to win) and then games vs. Michigan, at Iowa, at Northwestern and at Michigan State making up the toughest remaining games on the slate.

This is a real tough number because the road games at Iowa and Northwestern are very tricky and I suspect Michigan will be a lot better than people believe heading into the season. Talent-wise, Penn State is a 10-2/11-1 type of team. But I get a sense there are a couple of losses this year that will surface, making 9-3 a distinct possibility.

National title odds (20-1): Much like LSU, Penn State's hopes of reaching the conference title game -- and likely the CFP -- hinge on beating the big dog in its conference on the road. Should Penn State do that, the Lions could be in great shape come CFP-standings time. I still think 20-1 is a little short, though, and one could probably wait to see how those games at Iowa and Northwestern play out and then get a decent price at that point in the season.

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