<
>

Betting preview: Win total, title odds for Florida State Seminoles

Florida State will be a title contender in the eyes of many, but do the Seminoles provide any betting value? Mark LoMoglio/Sportswire

With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to give you betting previews of the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 22.

Florida State Seminoles

National title odds: 8-1 (opened 8-1)
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 10.1


Phil Steele

Strengths: Florida State held opponents to 18.5 points per game, 293.3 yards per game and 110.3 yards below their season averages over its last eight contests of 2016. This season, the Seminoles lose just three lettermen off that defense, with 24 returning. And they also get back arguably the nation's best defensive player in Derwin James, who was injured in the second game last year and missed the remainder of the campaign. Deondre Francois was impressive as a freshman. He will be one of the nation's top quarterbacks.

Weaknesses: The offensive line struggled last season. But in speaking to how talented this team is, I rate it the No. 22 offensive line in the country, the squad's lowest-rated unit. I like both Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick at running back, and they were the No. 2 and No. 3 rated running backs out of high school. They do have big shoes to fill after losing Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,765 yards (6.1 yards per carry), was the No. 2 receiver and had 20 total touchdowns.

Over/under (9.5): The Seminoles open with Alabama and have to play both Clemson and Florida on the road, but Florida State is favored in 11 of its games and is my pick to win the ACC. I will go with the over here.

National title odds (8-1): Of the top favorites for the title, the Seminoles have the toughest tests during the season. Last year when I talked to coach Jimbo Fisher, he told me, "Boy, are we going to be good next year." Well, next year is here. I feel they are accurately priced at 8-1. No play.


"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

O/U (9.5): Last year, I predicted that the Seminoles would make the College Football Playoff -- and to no one's surprise, I was wrong. This year, it seems like there are more people of the belief that Jimbo Fisher and his team are a good bet to win the national title. My issue with the boys from Tallahassee is not who is wearing their uniform, but who they have to play against, especially starting with their first opponent: Alabama, in Atlanta.

I've watched a bunch of FSU games from last year in the recent weeks, and there is one thing that happened week in and week out: Francois was continually knocked down and hit hard. He was forced to leave multiple games for a period of time. Those sights scared me, knowing how important he is to FSU.

Plus, does any team with title aspirations have two nonconference games tougher than Alabama and Florida? Give me the under.


Chris Fallica

Over/under (9.5): According to FPI, the Seminoles have better than a 70 percent chance to win in nine of their 12 games, with games versus Alabama (41 percent), at Clemson (51.7 percent) and at Florida (66.9 percent) the outliers.

It looks as if only two other teams could potentially challenge the Noles: Miami, which travels to Tallahassee on Sept. 16, two weeks after FSU faces Alabama; and Louisville, which put a beatdown on FSU in 2016. While 10-2 looks like a worst-case scenario, remember RB Dalvin Cook is gone, as is WR Travis Rudolph and DL DeMarcus Walker. S Derwin James returns from injury, and freshman RB Cam Akers enters with a ton of accolades.

Will the offensive line be any better? I think there are still major concerns with that unit. Francois took a beating last year, and if he were to miss any time because of injury, it would be a major loss for the Noles. FSU went 9-3 in the regular season last year. Factoring the loss of Cook and questions at WR and OL, I can see 9-3 potentially coming into play. But based on the seemingly endless talent FSU has recruited, it's easy to see why many think the Noles will easily eclipse that win total in 2017.

Title odds (8-1): Guess it depends on how you view the season opener against Alabama? If you think FSU will win, 8-1 is as good a price as you will likely get. If you think Alabama will win, I can see the number drifting up some, as the Noles will likely have no margin for error in the eyes of the committee, given how it has treated two-loss teams thus far.

Landing page for all 25 teams