During the past two weeks, I've released my 2017 MLB team previews on a division-by-division basis. Then, I revealed my favorite over and under selections in each league.
Today, I'm summarizing which team I see capturing each division, the likely wild card entrants and my picks for the 2017 World Series winner and loser.
As a reminder, it was in this space last year that you first read the Chicago Cubs would defeat the Cleveland Indians to win the 2016 World Series. (And yet, I still landed in the Twitter feed of Freezing Cold Takes for my not-so-great Texas Rangers prediction.)
Let's get to it!
AL East: Boston Red Sox
When they signed David Price before the 2016 season, the Red Sox had to assume that to wrest the AL East they'd need to do it by dominating the run suppression competition against the Toronto Blue Jays' high-powered offense. Instead, the Blue Jays ended up allowing fewer runs than every other team in the American League. Yet, the Red Sox still won the division.
When you look at the roster changes that have occurred since the final out of the 2016 season was recorded, it's hard to see the AL East crown changing hands in 2017.
Yes, the Red Sox lost David Ortiz, but Toronto lost Edwin Encarnacion, and if that's a bit more damaging to Boston when you factor in the replacements, the Red Sox countered with the addition of Chris Sale to the rotation. The health of Price's left elbow may reduce Sale's signing to an effective insurance policy as opposed to a massive upgrade, but Boston's awesome lineup has the firepower to carry mediocre pitching to the postseason.
However, the lack of a dominant bullpen and some question marks on defense prevent me from seeing the Red Sox capture the pennant and attempt to win their fourth world championship since 2004.
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
I like to talk each year about the (still) mythical prop bet in Vegas: Which team will be the first to clinch its division?
Despite the strength of the Cubs and the Red Sox -- and thanks to an AL Central where I see everyone aside from the Indians finishing below .500 -- I don't see how that won't be Cleveland this season. As the rosters are currently constructed, I suppose you can see everything coming together in Detroit one last time in the Miguel Cabrera era, but otherwise the Indians just have an unparalleled combination of hitting, pitching and defense within the division.
Since I don't expect Cleveland to be tested until October, let's try to look ahead at the challenges it may face returning to the playoffs. Of course, coming off of last year's pennant run, the Indians have a very strong case that they are still the best team in the American League, especially if Michael Brantley returns to his 2014-2015 form. On the other hand, the Houston Astros' lineup may be better, the Red Sox attempted to close the rotation gap by trading for Chris Sale and the primary weapon that led the Indians' postseason run, the bullpen, has notoriously high variance from year to year.
It should make for a great October, but my AL pennant affection, which lay with Cleveland last year, has moved to the AL West.
AL West: Houston Astros
I'm forecasting a World Series between two franchises founded in the 1960s that have exactly one World Series appearance between them in their combined 103 years of existence, and when it's over, I expect the 2017 world championship banner to fly in Houston for the first time.
The Rangers seem to work magic-based wizardry each year to ensure their success, the Angels have the best player in baseball and the Mariners are actively managing their roster to reach the postseason, but you wouldn't trade Houston's roster with any other one in the division. The lineup has an almost perfect match of skill sets, youth and experience, as the lack of on-base aptitude has been addressed without sacrificing the power that has driven this team to two straight seasons over .500. The rotation is solid, and most importantly for forecasting postseason success, the bullpen ranks as the best in the American League.
If it all comes together for Houston this year, the Astros will not only beat their cross-state rivals in the division, they'll win the 45-year war they've been waging with the Rangers since 1972 to bring the first world championship to the state of Texas.
AL wild cards: Texas, Toronto
NL East: Washington Nationals
The new millennium has seen multi-decades-long droughts end in Boston, Chicago (both South and North side), Anaheim and San Francisco. We could very well add Washington to that list by year's end. While I don't have them winning the World Series, I do see the team capturing its first National League pennant since the franchise's Montreal formation in 1969. Along the way, they should achieve another franchise first as well: The first successful defense of a division title.
It's always enviable to bring a better roster to the table a year after winning a division title, and thanks to the addition of Adam Eaton, the Nationals appear to have done just that. This is not a team without flaws; there are defensive and offensive questions at catcher and first base, but there's loads of high-ceiling star talent in the lineup and the rotation. Time is running out on this team to capture some glory with the bulk of this roster intact.
A National League pennant and a trip to the Fall Classic would qualify.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
In print, podcasts and interviews last spring, I argued that the Cubs' 2016 regular-season outlook was bulletproof, and as a result I pegged them as world champions. I don't believe either of those statements apply this year.
Just as the Cubs had the peak-perfect combination of veterans and youngsters, their division mates were in crisis. Pittsburgh faced a bridge year for its pitching staff that resulted in a predictable surge of runs allowed. At the same time, the Cardinals had to retool an offense that threatened to relegate them to the National League's second tier.
This year, the Cubs have lost Dexter Fowler, the outlooks of a couple of veterans don't look as rosy as last year and their defense, which typically doesn't correlate as well year-over-year as offense, spent a year in uncharted waters of excellence. As exciting as the Cubs' offense was, the Cardinals had a larger year-over-year increase in runs scored, suggesting they are also built to compete for the rest of the decade.
The call is still Chicago for the NL Central this year, but in no way do I expect the path to this year's division crown to look like last year's wire-to-wire romp.
NL West: San Francisco Giants
On behalf of all baseball fans, I'd like to remind these two franchises: We're still waiting.
Waiting, that is, for a memorable division race between the Clayton Kershaw-era Dodgers and the Buster Posey-era Giants. Look at the final 2016 NL West standings, see the Giants four back of the Dodgers, and you may think it featured a tight September battle, but it wasn't the case. Los Angeles was seven games up with three games to play.
I think we're going to get it this year, despite the fact the Dodgers are a heavy favorite to win the division. However, I see an oft-injured rotation creaky enough to once again need dozens of starts from spot starters. They've pulled off that method of success for the past two years, but despite that evidence, it wouldn't seem to be a repeatable strategy. Further, the Dodgers enter this year with the most-worked bullpen from 2016.
The Giants, meanwhile, are a model of consistency thanks to their core of homegrown talent, which should allow them to keep pace with anything that requires low-90s wins to capture the division. If the Dodgers win 97 -- as some are predicting -- I'll tip my cap. But I like the Giants as the pick here, especially when you compare the payout odds they're getting versus the heavily favored Dodgers.
NL wild cards: Los Angeles, St. Louis
World Series: Houston over Washington