On Wednesday, I released my previews for all 30 MLB teams, and on Thursday I revealed my favorite over and under bets in each league.
Today, I'll summarize which team I see capturing each division while picking the 10 playoff entrants.
AL East: Toronto Blue Jays
When the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released its opening total wins markets in February, the Boston Red Sox, last year's cellar-dwellers in the AL East, were installed with the highest win total in the division. Small, half-game shifts for both Boston (down) and Toronto (up) have evened both totals at 87, but that still has me somewhat puzzled. With the signing of David Price, Boston has a sizable rotation edge over Toronto, to the tune of about 65 fewer projected runs allowed over the course of the season. However, the Red Sox had a 34-run advantage last season, so it's not a huge gain.
Although notoriously difficult to depend on when making projections, the Red Sox, having picked up Craig Kimbrel, should make headway in closing the 50-plus runs allowed advantage the Blue Jays had in the bullpen last year. But 30 runs suppressed here and another 30 runs suppressed there don't come close to negating the advantage the Blue Jays have in creating runs on offense.
To wit: If Toronto had stopped playing baseball on Sept. 7 last season, with 25 games remaining, the Jays would still have outscored the Red Sox. It will be a lot closer this year, but I have to back the far more potent offense. Like Notre Dame on Saturdays or Dallas on Sundays, there's a little bit of a retail premium associated with Boston during MLB season, and that helps to slide value to Blue Jays backers.
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
I know that many see the AL Central as a muddled mess of five teams that could all finish over or under .500 without shocking analysts. However, I see Cleveland as the best team in not only the division but also the entire American League.
The Indians' rotation is the best in the majors, and based on the elevation of the team's defense subsequent to Francisco Lindor's promotion to the majors in June, the team seems to have found a solution to the factor that has sabotaged the excellent work of the pitching staff the previous two years. Throw in new faces on offense to replace some production black holes on a team that was better than last year's 81-win campaign, and you've got a formula for 90-plus wins in a division that is muddled -- outside Cleveland. Built perfectly for the postseason, the Indians are my pick to win the AL pennant.
AL West: Seattle Mariners
Because there isn't an alternative definition of "best," only the Indians appeared as my American League representative in the best bets column. That, however, shortchanges my love of the "over" 82.5 wins bet for the Mariners. The difference between the Mariners' successes (87 wins in 2014) and disappointments (71 and 76 wins in 2013 and 2015, respectively) in recent years can be tied directly to their bullpen (29th, 1st and 25th in ERA, 2013-2015.) If they can just regress to a normal 3.50 bullpen ERA, they'd be a .500 team this year without any changes to last year's roster.
But the changes Seattle made to the offense finally addressed the problem that has bedeviled this franchise for years: league-worst OBP production. This figures to be an extremely competitive division, but with just enough regression from the Astros, who are very one-dimensional on offense, the Mariners should emerge with the division crown and finally get Felix Hernandez a postseason start.
AL wild cards: Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
NL East: Miami Marlins
Let's be clear here: If I were presented with a table stacked high with piles of money and told the cash was mine if I picked the winner of the NL East, I wouldn't pick Miami. I'd have to take the Nationals or the Mets in a non-pari-mutuel-type payout situation. When simulating the 2016 season, those two teams have the most scenarios that lead to a division crown. So stipulated.
However, this is an exercise in value, and I see a Marlins team that has an excellent chance of hanging with the two prohibitive favorites all summer and then stealing the division by season's end. Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton are both listed by Baseball-Reference.com among the franchise's top 20 all-time WAR producers -- and they have played only 28 games together in their entire career. With both healthy this year, that number should more than double and provide the foundation -- backed by a young supporting cast and a strong No. 2 in the rotation in Wei-Yin Chen -- needed to hang around the division lead all year.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
Yes, they are the betting favorites, and no, their futures don't provide any value. As Baseball Prospectus co-founder Joe Sheehan pointed out this spring, the Cubs have World Series odds we don't often see on the betting favorite -- at the start of the playoffs. To my eye, there is no sense in being a contrarian. You won't see me buying a futures ticket, but I don't think the Cubs, despite the highest total wins market in the majors, are undervalued at 93.5 wins. I wouldn't be surprised if the sum of their implied win probabilities of each game exceeds 100 games by the end of the season.
Even the makeup of the schedule is helpful. It seems that every time the Cubs are to face a quality team, the series is bracketed by tune-ups against the Braves, Phillies, Reds or Brewers. It's as if Nick Saban designed the schedule. This team is obviously a popular pick, but absent a few season-altering injuries, I see November baseball at Wrigley Field and a World Series championship for the Cubs' long-suffering fans.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
The improvements made to the Arizona Diamondbacks' roster notwithstanding, Dodgers versus Giants is the best two-horse race in the majors this year. That, believe it or not, would be a new development between the two old rivals. Despite the two teams' winning seven of the past eight NL West titles, in that time, the Dodgers and Giants have never finished within five games of each other when one of them has taken the division.
That should change this year, as both teams seem poised to win at least 90 games. You can examine the details at length in my previews (the Dodgers are beset by injuries, the Giants have rotation depth issues, etc.), but for me, the deciding factor is the bullpen. Despite winning 92 games last year, the Dodgers can still get significant marginal improvement from their bullpen. It's nearly a toss-up, and both teams should reach October as threats to go deep into the postseason, but I'm giving the edge for the division crown to Los Angeles.
NL wild cards: San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals
World Series winner: Cubs over Indians