For the third year in a row, ESPN Chalk has published my season win total outlook for all 30 MLB teams. Last year, there were 21 over/under recommendations which went a sparkling 16-5, and in 2015 there were 16 plays which finished 10-5-1. This year, there are 17 selections, 10 in the National League and seven in the American League, which you can find in the team write-ups.
Unlike single game bets which, in practice, I weight based on perceived edge versus the stated money line, I tend to keep my total wins plays at a constant unit level. Nonetheless, I have favorites among this year's 17 recommendations. Below are my four best bets -- one over and one under in each league.
Note: All season win total markets courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of March 30.
Best AL "Over" bet
Texas Rangers: Over 84.5 wins
Telling someone that their success depended on luck tends to irritate them, because it implies they didn't earn their success or that it wasn't deserved. While that might be true in the case of lottery winners, that's usually not the meaning of luck that baseball analysts use when examining a team's results. That distinction is certainly true in the case of the Rangers.
No one is saying they didn't deserve their success in 2016, or that they didn't earn their victories. No, what we're talking about is repeatability of results. Through that lens, there's no disputing the Rangers were lucky to finish with the best record in the American League last year, and you can make the case they were lucky to have even made the playoffs.
So universal is that conclusion, that by the end of last season, even casual fans realized the Rangers were lucky. They became so overrated, I believe that they enter this season underrated. Last year's path to the playoffs, chiefly dependent on the best winning percentage in MLB history in one-run games, might not be repeatable, but fortunately for Texas, it isn't trying to repeat last year's results with last year's players.
The Rangers have a very different makeup from the team that played more like a .500 team than the 95-win team it actually was. Importantly, it's a much better makeup. Texas is slated to get full seasons from four different everyday players who should materially improve upon the results of the players they are replacing. On the mound, all of the bullpen culprits who had a large role in destroying the team's run differential in the first half of the season are gone, as is some rotational dead weight.
The road to another division title is difficult due to their cross-state rivals but, to my eye, soaring over their rather modest win total is not.
Best AL "Under" bet
New York Yankees: Under 83.5 wins
When I see the Yankees' total wins market at 83.5 and the Rangers and the Blue Jays just a game higher, the two-decade financial industry professional in me wants to put on some sort of massive spread trade between the Yankees and the other two teams. Betting markets aren't that sophisticated yet, but in the words of Alexander Hamilton, "Just you wait!" Until then, though, I have to be content with a straight under call on the Yankees.
The logic for the call is straightforward. There is far too much hype surrounding the Yankees this year based on two unbelievable months of production from catcher Gary Sanchez. To which I have just one thing to say: Jesus Montero. Not evocative enough? How's this? Shane Spencer. Spencer's overnight success even inspired an episode of "Sex and the City" after he hit 10 home runs, including three grand slams, in the last month of the 1998 season.
The hype around Sanchez, and to a lesser degree Greg Bird at first base, as well as the outstanding trades the Yankees made over the last year to restock their farm system, masks the fact that while they are getting younger, they are still old -- especially in the outfield. Believe it or not, despite the uninterrupted string of over-.500 finishes, New York has been outscored in three of its past four seasons, including last year.
I've always contended that when it comes to futures markets, the Yankees are always tagged with a retail mark-up above their intrinsic value, similar to an Hermès scarf. I see an under-.500 finish this year, before the youngsters truly transform the team into the next generation of contenders in 2018.
Best NL "Over" bet
Atlanta Braves: Over 74.5 wins
When last season ended, I certainly did not expect to be excited about watching Braves games this April. Normally taking the over on a team priced near the bottom of the pack comes with the risk of a midseason fire sale. But, I think the risk is mitigated here because the Braves were actually buyers at last year's trade deadline. The addition of Matt Kemp with two months left in the season, along with the call up of leading prospect Dansby Swanson sparked this team over its final 60 games, and I expect the same in 2017. It's not because momentum can actually carry over for six months but because the Braves signed veterans, most notably in the rotation, who can have a very positive marginal effect over last year's staff.
By signing durable innings-eaters, Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and, to a lesser extent Jaime Garcia, the Braves might get more starts out of their rotation than any other team. A lack of replacement-level starts or worse, which nearly every team experiences as they use half-a-dozen spot starters over the season, would act as a huge tailwind for a team we're only asking to win 75 games.
Honestly, I will not be the least bit surprised if the Braves are hanging around .500 or better for the majority of the summer. The National League is too top-heavy to seriously make Atlanta a long-shot wild-card call but, for our purposes, a solid season of balanced run scoring versus runs allowed should allow us to comfortably cash this over.
Best NL "Under" bet
Chicago Cubs: Under 96.5 wins
Since the end of the Braves' pitching-led dominance in the 1990s, great offenses have tended to be more consistently great year-to-year than pitching staffs. While the best examples of this are the Red Sox and Yankees during the first 10 years of this millennium, the Phillies' five-year run of NL East titles falls into that category as well. Baseball fans recall the all-time great rotation that led the last of those division winners, but the 2007-2010 teams were flat-out mashers.
Even less consistent than pitching is defense. I've been calculating adjusted defensive efficiency, which measures teams' ability to convert batted balls into outs and erase existing baserunners for five years, and no team has ever topped the rankings two years running. The Cubs were great in many ways last year, and obviously have a bright future, but their defense was not only the best in the game, it was standard deviations better than anyone else's. They broke through upper bands of excellence that I didn't think possible.
If they don't have the best defense in baseball this year, it'll likely cost them six wins -- and that's if they finish second! Toss in the loss of Dexter Fowler, a decline in Jake Arrieta last season, along with the fact there's no reason for Joe Maddon to have his foot to the floor all season, and you've got a value-based under call on a team that is priced for perfection.