Reason for optimism: Chris Sale replaces Clay Buchholz's production.
Reason for pessimism: Mitch Moreland replaces David Ortiz's production.
Worst, first, worst, worst, first. Man, the Red Sox's annual pattern of either finishing first or last is as confounding as the Giants' even-year success was. Of course, that came to an end last year, so what's the fate of Boston's curious pole-to-pole pattern in 2017?
Well, when you add Sale to a team that won 93 games last year, it looks like the worst-or-first streak will continue, with the latter massively more likely than the former.
If you tend to be a contrarian, there's another path you can take. You could say, "Subtract not a .3/.4/.5 player but a .3/.4/.6 player with the highest OPS in baseball last season from last year's lineup and watch the plunge begin." However, as incredible as Ortiz's (.315/.401/.620) farewell season with the Red Sox was, assuming the their offensive success depended on him completely misses the point of how good the lineup was from top to bottom.