ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Boston Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox
Reason for optimism: Worst to first? Not a problem for the Red Sox, and management worked hard this past winter to ensure that.
Reason for pessimism: Expecting everything in 2015 to go as right as it did in 2013 is unrealistic. The front office is not infallible, as a couple of last-place finishes in three years demonstrate.
Similar to Aaron Schatz's NFL findings at Football Outsiders regarding offense and defense, in baseball a team's offensive production is more consistent year-to-year than its pitching. The Red Sox are a prime example of offensive consistency.
In the past 10 seasons the Red Sox have ranked second to only the Yankees in runs scored; in the past five seasons, which have featured two last-place finishes, the Red Sox have scored more runs than any other team in the majors, leading the second-place Tigers by nearly 100 runs. The drivers of that offensive production have been consistent as well, and can be summed up in three words: "take and rake." Over the past 10 seasons, Boston leads the majors
That's what makes the high-profile free-agent signing of Pablo Sandoval so intriguing. Sandoval walked in just 6.1 percent of his plate appearances last year, down from 7.3 percent in his career, whereas the Red Sox typically average a 9 percent clip as a team.
Further, a deep dive into Sandoval's career splits reveals two traits: He hit much better in AT&T Park than on the road, and despite the fact that he isn't a home run hitter, (1 HR every 30 AB, about the same as Shin-Soo Choo and Kelly Johnson) he has a much higher batting average on fly balls than the average major league hitter.
Taken together, it's easy to conclude AT&T Park, with its vast outfield, played to Sandoval's contact-on-every-at-bat approach to hitting. Fenway Park, on the other hand, has the smallest playing field in the majors. Maybe the Red Sox have advanced analytics suggesting Sandoval's approach will result in a lot of doubles off the Green Monster, but the evidence above is at least enough to raise some skepticism about the wisdom of winning the auction for a low-walk, low-power corner infielder in Fenway Park.
Then there's the defense. On the basis of turning batted balls into outs and erasing existing baserunners, the Red Sox ranked 13th in 2012, 14th in '13 and 19th last year. That wouldn't appear to get better with Hanley Ramirez manning Fenway's tricky left field and Sandoval, with his history of highly variable fielding skills, taking over at third base (where the Red Sox were generally league-average on defense last year). That could be a real problem because Boston's starting rotation was 22nd in the majors last year in strikeout percentage and the three leading contributors to that rate (Jon Lester, John Lackey and Jake Peavy) have all departed. Of their replacements, only Justin Masterson can be considered an above-average strikeout pitcher with Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly and Wade Miley promising to allow a lot more balls hit into the field of play.
The Red Sox pulled off a worst-to-first in 2013, and due to their roster moves this winter Vegas seems to think they can do it again. Boston's total wins market is 86, highest in the AL East and futures show the Red Sox behind only the Angels and Mariners in American League pennant expectations. I'm very skeptical at that level of optimism.
With their formidable lineup, but pedestrian starting rotation (as well as a bullpen missing its most valuable piece from last season, including Andrew Miller), the Red Sox look like a team built to win a lot of 8-6 games. A decade ago that was a viable strategy, but in 2015 it might result in a lot of 4-2 losses to teams with up-and-down rotation strength like Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle and Tampa Bay.
With the exception of David Ortiz, the Red Sox are young and positioning themselves well for the rest of the decade. In 2015, a season above .500 looks like a more realistic goal than a division crown.
2015 projection: 83-79 (third, AL East)
Bet recommendation: Pass