LAS VEGAS -- The NCAA tournament resumes with the Sweet 16 games this Thursday and Friday.
And the Sweet 16 survivors weren't the only winners over the weekend. ESPN Chalk's Dave Tuley went 9-3 (75 percent) with ATS best bets as he went 3-0 on Thursday, 2-1 on Friday, 2-1 in Saturday and 2-1 on Sunday. Tuley's over/under best bets haven't fared as well at 1-2 ATS.
Lange rebounded in the second round at 2-0 with his O/U best bets and is 4-3 for the tournament. He's 3-1 with ATS best bets, as he was 3-0 in the first round and lost his only play in the second round.
Tuley and Lange are a combined 17-9 (65.4 percent) ATS on best bets, so here's hoping the winning continues this weekend.
Update: Tuley went 1-1 ATS with his best bets Thursday with a loss on Purdue but then winning with Xavier. Tuley is 10-4 (71.4 percent) with ATS best bets for the tournament.
Lange won his lone best bet Thursday with the under in the Gonzaga-West Virginia game (which stayed under by 31 points!) and is 5-3 (62.5 percent) with over/under best bets. Lange is 3-1 with ATS best bets and Tuley is 1-2 with O/U best bets, so combined Tuley and Lange are 19-10 (65.5 percent) with best bets in their ESPN Chalk betting guides during the tournament.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday morning. Times are Eastern.
Friday's games
No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (PK) vs. No. 3 UCLA Bruins
Friday, 9:35 p.m., Memphis
Over/under: 165.5
Tuley's take: It makes sense for this 2-3 matchup to be pick-em. Kentucky is 31-5, UCLA is 31-4. Kentucky is 18-17-1 ATS, UCLA is 17-18-1 ATS. Both teams are popular teams with the public with major fan bases willing to back them.
UCLA hasn't played strong defense all year, but if they can force Monk to give up the ball (and keep him from getting the ball off screens), they have a better-than-average chance. And if Monk goes off, the Bruins still have the firepower to outscore him.
The pick: UCLA pick-em*
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-7.5) vs. No. 4 Butler Bulldogs
Friday, 7:05 p.m., Memphis, Tennessee
Over/under: 153
Tuley's take: Butler is no longer the lovable mid-major as it's now in the Big East and was a bully in beating mid-majors Winthrop and Middle Tennessee State to get to the Sweet 16. I'm certainly tempted to the Bulldogs plus all those points (I'll call it a lean, though my ATS leans are 0-4 so that yells "pass" to me), but I'm not sure this year's team can play David to North Carolina's Goliath. In the end, it's going to be hard for the undersized Bulldogs to limit the Tar Heels' second chances on the offensive boards. The far stronger play to me looks like the under.
It's set relatively high at 153, but that's typical of Tar Heel games as they average 84.5 points per game and hung 100 on Texas Southern in the first round, plus the public loves to bet them to go over. However, those "over"-expectations have led North Carolina to a 21-14-1 (60 percent) under record, including going well under 165.5 in its 72-65 win over Arkansas on Sunday. Butler played Saturday, so its players and coaches should have learned a lot from watching how Arkansas played UNC and I expect a similar type of game here.
The pick: under 153* (lean to Butler +7.5)
No. 3 Baylor Bears (-3.5) vs. No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks
Thursday, 7:25 p.m., New York
Over/under: 135
Tuley's take: Admit it: Whether you were on South Carolina or Duke on Sunday (and many more people were cheering for Duke with a wager or in their brackets), you kept expecting Duke to go on a run at some point and pull out the victory. It was a credit to South Carolina that it held the Blue Devils at arm's length and never let that happen, pulling the upset as a 6.5-point underdog. The Gamecocks now get a Baylor team that has exceeded my expectations; I expected the Bears to lose to New Mexico State (or at least not cover). Our Vegas Power Ratings have it right at this line of Baylor -3.5, so I don't see value on the side, but I'm liking the over more and more (it opened 137 and is down to 135). I guess I can understand the move as Baylor is 16-12-1 with the under and South Carolina is 17-13-1, but after watching both teams this weekend I'm willing to fade the move.
Both teams average around 72.5 points per game on the season, yet both went 2-0 with the over last weekend. Baylor's 82 points against USC were the least these two teams scored in their four combined games. I've nearly talked myself into making it a best bet, and if the total continues to drop, you can rest assured that I've played it myself.
The pick: lean to over 135
Lange: South Carolina finished 11th in the SEC in offensive efficiency but managed to hang 93 points on Marquette and 88 against tournament favorite Duke. Baylor was just as potent, as it blew out New Mexico State, 91-73, and slipped past USC 82-78; four games, four wins, 88.5 PPG, and 1.21 points per possession.
There is no denying both teams played well offensively, but there were some factors that helped their cause. South Carolina's first opponent, Marquette, has one of the worst defenses in the country among power conference schools. And against Duke, the Gamecocks managed only 23 points in the first half, caught fire in the second half, and cashed in at the free throw late line en route to 65 second-half points. Keep in mind South Carolina still shot less than 43 percent from the floor. Baylor had way too much size and athleticism for mid-major New Mexico State and got hot the last 10 minutes of its win over a worn-down South Carolina team playing its third game in five days.
These are two average offenses that have had a lot go their way on that end. With time to rest and prepare -- and the switch to Madison Square Garden -- it's the defenses' turn to shine. And we know the stop units are very capable, as they both rank inside the top 15 nationally in efficiency. I bet under 137.5 early this week. At 135 I can only recommend a lean, but feel this will be one of the lower-scoring games of the Sweet 16.
Pick: lean under 135
No. 4 Florida Gators (-2) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers
Thursday, 9:55 p.m., New York
Over/under: 131.5
Tuley's take: Wisconsin is right where I expected it to be after two rounds, especially after calling the Badgers a longshot at 80-1 in our NCAA value bets column last Monday. Their senior leaders Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes led the way in the upset of 65-62 of No. 1 overall seed Villanova and I think it would have been easier if Koenig hadn't been sidelined with foul trouble. But it all worked out fine and now they face Florida.
The number looks a little short, though it makes more sense if you're with me in believing Wisconsin should have been a No. 5 or 6 seed. I was impressed with Florida's 65-39 rout of Virginia, but I still believe I have the better overall team with the Badgers. Both teams play solid defense (which is why the total is the lowest of the Sweet 16), but along with Hayes, sophomore center Ethan Happ gives them an inside edge while I'll take Koenig and Wisconsin's other guards against Florida's backcourt.
The pick: Wisconsin +2*