Reason for optimism: After a year of recklessly buying high in the offseason, the front office sold high this past winter.
Reason for pessimism: Management still hasn't addressed bullpen, defensive or catcher-framing issues.
I told you so. In predicting Zack Greinke, coming off a 1.66 ERA campaign in 2015, would post his highest ERA in 2016 since his 2011 season with the Brewers, I used far more logic than the Diamondbacks' front office did when it committed more than $200 million last offseason and slotted Greinke onto the team as currently constructed. With batterymates that are a pitch-framing liability, and backed by one of the worst defenses in baseball in an extreme hitters park, Greinke was set up to fail. Ultimately he posted his highest ERA, 4.37, since 2005 when he was a 21-year-old with Kansas City.
Despite the additions of Greinke and Shelby Miller to the roster, I saw little chance Arizona could outscore its opponents and therefore finish with the above-.500 record many foresaw, let alone have any chance of challenging the Giants and Dodgers for division supremacy. When, after the publication of the projection, 2015's breakout star A.J. Pollock injured his elbow on the eve of Opening Day, Arizona's 2016 fate was sealed before a pitch had been thrown.
Our job is to look forward, however, and
First and foremost, the importance of Pollock's return to the lineup cannot be overstated. For three straight seasons from 2013-2015, the vastly underrated center fielder posted greater than 5.0 WAR production pro-rated over a full season of at bats. Not only did his absence cost the team dozens of runs on offense, but without Pollock anchoring the defense in center the entire outfield defense was a disaster. Never a strength of Arizona's, which has only once fielded a league-average defense the last five seasons (2013), its adjusted defensive efficiency ranking fell to worst in the league in 2016. Pollock is going to materially improve things on both sides of the runs scored/allowed ledger.
Improving runs scored means Arizona is a legitimate threat to score 750 runs in 2017, an improvement over 2016 -- which will be a huge feat given the other roster changes.
First, the positives: Pollock will team with last year's breakout star, Jake Lamb, and the sublime Paul Goldschmidt to form a formidable top of the order. Goldschmidt, as fantasy baseball players are keenly aware, is not only 12th in all of MLB in slugging the last two seasons, he's also fifth (fifth!) in stolen bases. That's a combination of power and speed that is positively Trout/Bonds-like. Given that, you'll want to sit down for this next data point. Only one player in the majors last year outslugged Goldschmidt and stole more bases than he did. How many guesses would you have needed before coming up with the correct answer, his teammate Jean Segura?
Arizona's front office has made a number of boneheaded decisions the last few seasons, but trading Segura, coming off a monstrous career year, accompanied with unsustainably high sabermetric readings (.353 BABIP and 13.5 percent FB/HR rate) to Seattle for starting pitcher Taijuan Walker and perhaps a shortstop of the future in Ketel Marte, grades very well through the "sell-high" lens.
It's tougher to put any sort of positive spin on the loss of catcher Welington Castillo to free agency. His offensive production surely won't be replaced by Chris Iannetta but, unfortunately, his deficiency in framing strikes probably will, which calls into question whether the front office really has improved its thinking. The free-agent signing of Fernando Rodney to close games cements that doubt. Those developments are not welcome news for the rotation, which is definitely better with the addition of Walker. That alone should allow them to substantially improve upon the unit's NL-worst 5.17 ERA from last season.
There's a well-established trick on Wall Street that companies use to impress analysts and shareholders when they report quarterly results known as "beat and lower." The "lower" refers to reducing expectations for the upcoming quarter, so that when reporting occurs three months later, expectations can be beaten, and the cycle begins anew. The Diamondbacks' Opening Day roster this year is better than last year's but expectations are lower -- at 77.5, four games lower in the Las Vegas pricing currency we care about. To my eye though, all that means is they are not a "sell" recommendation this year. This is a pass for me.
2017 projection: 77-85 (third, NL West)
Bet recommendation: Pass