Reason for optimism: With several big moves, they won the winter!
Reason for pessimism: They won the winter, just like the Padres and Red Sox did last year, and the Mariners in 2014, and the Blue Jays in 2013, and the Marlins in 2012 ...
Justin Timberlake might have "brought sexy back" a few years ago, but as the list of teams in the blurb above can attest, for baseball bettors, it's usually not a good idea to back sexy.
With offseason additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller at the cost of a boatload of money and prospects, the Diamondbacks are unquestionably this year's sexy pick to crash the 2016 postseason party.
In truth, it's not an outlandish leap of logic. Greinke and Paul Goldschmidt are every bit the equals of Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer in Washington and Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez in Miami, when it comes to pairing the best hitter in the league with the best pitcher. Further, Greinke and Miller represent significant upgrades over Chase Anderson and Jeremy Hellickson, who over 300 innings had a below-average ERA of 4.45 in their 54 combined starts. The question is: Are they as big of an upgrade as many think? On the surface, perhaps. Greinke had the best ERA in baseball last year (1.66), and despite a 6-17 win-loss record with the Braves, Miller's ERA was a sparkling 3.02.
However, there is a very large, three-pronged problem with translating those results to this year, and it can be best examined by looking at Arizona's prized free agent. Greinke has spent his entire career with a skill set suggesting -- whether you prefer SIERA or xFIP -- something around a 3.50 ERA. Even if his skills had no variance, that doesn't mean he should post a 3.50 ERA, of course. It does mean that his skills, backed by a league-average defense in a park-neutral environment while throwing to a league-average pitch-framing catcher, suggest 3.50 ERA results.
Look at the three caveats I tossed in that last sentence, and then consider this:
By adjusted defensive efficiency, which takes into account not only the conversion of batted balls into outs but also the successful removal of existing baserunners, last year the Dodgers had the second-best defense in the National League, behind the San Francisco Giants. Arizona was a below-average ninth.
For the Dodgers, Greinke pitched half his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the majors. Unfortunately, in switching employers, Greinke moves to Chase Field, which is just about as favorable for hitters as Chavez Ravine is for pitchers.
Yasmani Grandal of the Dodgers was the very best catcher in the majors last year at framing pitches or, put another away, stealing strikes. One of the worst? Greinke's new battery mate, Welington Castillo. (In fact, Arizona's catching platoon was the second-worst in all of baseball, ahead of only the Detroit Tigers'.)
Those facts bode very poorly for front-office personnel, fans and fantasy players expecting Greinke to post results similar to last year's. To a lesser extent, the same can be said for Miller, who also goes from a pitcher's park with good defense to this year's markedly different environment. (Braves catchers were pretty bad at framing, though).
On offense, there were two gaping production holes last year, and the Diamondbacks addressed one of them. Losing the starting position at second base was Chris Owings, merely the worst hitter in baseball to qualify for the batting title last year. His .227/.264/.322 production in 2015 will undoubtedly be improved upon, even by Jean Segura, a disappointing prospect wash-out acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers. Even though he has not approached in the past two-and-a-half years what fantasy players remember fondly from the first half-season of his career, Segura should at least marginally improve the lineup. (If not, maybe the D-backs can run Greinke out to second base on his off-days. His lifetime batting line of .220/.261/.337 in nearly identical to Owings'.)
The second replacement-level hole from last season, created by Yasmany Tomas' middle infield-like production while playing right field, has not been addressed. Tomas is only 25 and an expensive signing from Cuba, and he will move to left field this year in an effort to hide his glove -- or, as it's known in Arizona, the Mark Trumbo Experience.
Make no mistake, there is a lot of potential here, and the hype isn't entirely unwarranted. A.J. Pollock and David Peralta enjoyed breakout seasons last year, and maybe Jake Lamb will do the same this year. That's a lineup that could win a lot of 7-5 games.
For the purposes of projections, though, price matters, and I believe Arizona might need a lot of seven-run outbursts to outscore its opponents over the course of the season. Yet, at 82 wins, Vegas already has the Diamondbacks pegged as on over-.500 team. They opened at an eye-popping 84.5 in Reno. (Note to self: Buying a timeshare in Reno for February might have positive EV.) The division is still daunting, and it will not surprise me at all if Greinke posts his highest ERA since 2011, when he pitched in front of a bad Brewers defense. Give me the under.
2016 projection: 79-83 (third in NL West)
Bet recommendation: Under