LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots, our No. 1 team since quarterback Tom Brady's return in Week 4, continued to roll with their 41-25 victory over the Buffalo Bills as 6.5-point favorites, while the Minnesota Vikings lost 20-10 at the Chicago Bears as 5.5-point road favorites.
The defending champion Denver Broncos have moved into a tie for second with the Vikings and are followed by two teams that also lost this past weekend: the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, along with some Week 8 value plays (12-8 ATS so far this season) using this week's ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread. We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes.
Movin' on up
The top of the NFL Vegas Rankings didn't see any major upward movement. The biggest increase in Week 8 came from the New Orleans Saints and the Bears, as they were the only teams to be increased by a full point by our panel. The Saints beat the Seahawks 25-20 as 1-point home underdogs, while the Bears beat the Vikings 20-10 as 5.5-point home underdogs.
Dropping down
No teams were downgraded by more than a full point after Week 8, though the three teams being docked 1 point were all in last week's top 10. The Vikings, Cardinals and Bills were all dropped by a full point. The Vikings were downgraded for losing to the Bears on national TV, while the Cardinals were totally dominated 30-20 (the score was actually misleading) by the Panthers, and the Bills were blown out by the Patriots.
Week 9 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 13-11 ATS (54.2 percent) so far this season after going 1-3 ATS in Week 8 with Packers +3 covering against the Falcons, but losses by Seattle -3, Arizona -2.5 and Minnesota -5.5.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 9 games over the weekend here at Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Vegas consensus line: Baltimore -2.5
Vegas Ranks: Pittsburgh -2 (21.5-19.5)
Our panel has the Steelers as 2 points better than the Ravens on a neutral field, even with QB Ben Roethlisberger still sidelined (he's listed as questionable). With Baltimore's home-field advantage, we have this game as a pick 'em, so any points with the Steelers looks like value (and while it still looks unlikely, if Big Ben was cleared to play later this week, this would be a very good ticket to have).
The play: Steelers +2.5
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Vegas consensus line: Oakland -1
Vegas Ranks: Denver -4 (25.5-21.5)
First place is on the line in the AFC West, yet our raw numbers have the Broncos still 4 points better than the Raiders on a neutral field. With Oakland's home-field advantage (which isn't much), we don't see how this line should be much less than Denver -3, so give us the Broncos as a short road 'dog.
The play: Broncos +1
Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
Vegas consensus line: Seattle -7
Vegas Ranks: Seattle -3 (24.5-21.5)
Our panel has the Seahawks 3 points better on a neutral field. There was a time not too long ago when it could be argued that Seattle's home-field advantage was worth 4 points, but not anymore, and certainly not the way they've been playing lately. Getting a full touchdown with the Bills here looks like value, even if paying a little added juice.
The play: Bills +7 (-120).