LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots (the 5-2 Super Bowl favorites) and Minnesota Vikings (the last undefeated team) remained Nos. 1-2 in the NFL Vegas Rankings this week, but the big news was the Pittsburgh Steelers dropping from No. 3 to a tie for 10th.
Pittsburgh lost 30-15 at Miami and Ben Roethlisberger went to the locker room but came back to finish the game. He had surgery Monday to repair a torn meniscus and it's unclear how much time he's going to miss. Landry Jones will start in his place.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) only lowered the Steelers' rating by 2 points. Erin Rynning and I lowered them by a lot more and the average came out to a 4-point decrease.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 7 value plays (12-6 ATS so far this season) using this week's power ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
Movin' on up
The biggest increase in Week 6 came from two teams
Dropping down
The Steelers were the biggest dropper by far with their loss at Miami and the injury to Roethlisberger. No other team had been downgraded by more than a point until the New York Jets' 28-3 loss as 7-point road underdogs at Arizona on Monday night. The other teams to drop by a full point were the Packers, Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders.
Week 7 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: a team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 12-6 ATS (66.7 percent) so far this season after going 1-2 ATS in Week 6 with the win on the Rams +3.5 at Detroit and losses on the Packers -4 and the Jets +7.5. We have only two value plays this week, though one is more open to interpretation than usual due to the disparity in how people are downgrading the Steelers with the loss of Big Ben.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 7 games during the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas consensus line: New England -7
Vegas Ranks: New England -5.5 (28-22.5)
As we discussed in our Early Line Report column here at ESPN Chalk, this game was pick 'em on the advance line at the Westgate last week, but now is New England -7 with Roethlisberger out. The market appears to be docking the Steelers for a lot more points than our panel (as described above) but going by our numbers, the Patriots are only 5.5 points better than the Steelers even with Jones starting. With Pittsburgh's home-field advantage, we have this line being a lot closer to a field goal.
The play: Steelers +7
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
Vegas consensus line: Denver -7.5 (EVEN)
Vegas Ranks: Denver -2.5 (24-21.5)
Our panel has the Broncos rated just 2.5 points better than the Texans, so even with Denver's home-field advantage, this line should be more like -5.5 or 6. There's value with the current line on the other side of the key number of 7 and even if you only take +7 (EVEN).
The play: Texans +7.5 (-120).