LAS VEGAS -- Tom Brady is back from his four-game suspension, and the New England Patriots are now atop the NFL Vegas Rankings.
However, it's not by as wide of a margin as our panel of ESPN Chalk handicappers was thinking a week ago. New England started the season 3-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett filling in at quarterback, and for the last few weeks we've been writing about that the Patriots would be upgraded when Brady returned and probably be No. 1. However, the Patriots were shut out 16-0 by the Buffalo Bills in Week 4. That would normally lead to a team being downgraded by a couple of points, so the addition of Brady only netted the Patriots a 1.5-point increase over last week, but that still enough to take over the top spot at a power rating of 27.
Here's a look at all 32 teams, the squads making the biggest moves up and down the rankings and some Week 5 value plays (10-3 ATS so far this season) using this week's power ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
Movin' on up
As mentioned above, the Patriots had the biggest increase of the week, but that's more due to Brady's return than their performance on the field. The other biggest increases from last week were the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Rams being upgraded by 1.5 points each. The Falcons beat the Carolina Panthers 48-33 as 3-point home underdogs while the Rams beat the Arizona Cardinals at 9.5-point road underdogs. The other teams to earn a full-point increase from last week were the Steelers, Bengals, Bills and Cowboys.
Dropping down
The Chiefs and Cardinals were downgraded by 1.5 points each, the most by our panel this week. The Chiefs were docked for their 43-14 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday night. The Cardinals suffered that 17-13 loss to the Rams, but would be lowered even more if Carson Palmer were to miss extended time. He's in the NFL's concussion protocol, but we didn't see the need to lower their power rating in the short term (if handicapping the Thursday night Cardinals-49ers, lower the Cardinals by 3 or 4 points if Drew Stanton has to start in place of Palmer). Speaking of concussions, our panel only lowered the Panthers by 1 point for their 48-33 loss at Atlanta, but we're going on the assumption Cam Newton will be cleared to play for Carolina's next game on Monday night. Other teams being lowered by a full point were the Buccaneers and Lions.
Week 5 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased fully if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 10-3 ATS (76.9 percent) so far this season after going 2-1 ATS in Week 4 with the Broncos -3 and Vikings -4 covering easily while we lost with the Browns +9.5. We only have two plays that rise to the level of being value plays this week.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 5 games over the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens
Vegas consensus line: Baltimore -4
Vegas Ranks: Baltimore -3.5 (21.5-18)
This a close call as our panel has the Ravens rated 3.5 points better than the Redskins on a neutral field, but with home-field advantage we believe this line should be at least Baltimore -6. With the line at -4 as of this writing (though there are a few -3.5s available), there's a little bit of value on the favorite, though we usually prefer to be crossing a key number when the difference in the lines is so small.
The play: Ravens -4.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Vegas consensus line: Los Angeles -2.5
Vegas Ranks: Buffalo -3 (21-18)
Our raw numbers have the Bills as 3 points better than the Rams on a neutral field, so unless we give the Rams a full 3 points for home-field advantage in their home in Los Angeles (which I'm not willing to do despite the Week 2 upset of Seattle), we believe the Bills should be favored. However, we're getting +2.5 and some books are offering +3 (-120).
The play: Bills +2.5.