LAS VEGAS -- Welcome to ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks like one team is going to coast to victory when the other one rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost that game and crying "bad beat!" And, of course, there are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week, and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
Sunday was one of the more exciting opening weeks in recent memory, so let's get right to our bettors recap of the day's action:
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
There wasn't a clear-cut bad beat on Sunday when it comes to the point-spread results. But if you include money-line wagers, there were two: San Diego was +250 on the money line and jumped out to a 24-3 lead over Kansas City before losing 33-27 in overtime. Miami was +450 at Seattle and led 10-6 until the Seahawks scored their first and only touchdown of the game with 31 seconds to play. But at least they didn't lose ATS, which is how we truly define "bad beats."
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
San Diego (+6.5) in 33-27 loss at Kansas City
As mentioned above, the Chargers were in control well into the second half, but the Chiefs rallied to force OT. However, the Chargers still covered as 6.5-point underdogs. For most of the game, I thought my takeaway from this one was going to be the improvement of the San Diego defense, but in the end it allowed 413 yards. The bigger takeaway is that the Chargers' offense was electrifying in building up a 21-3 halftime lead, with wide receiver Keenan Allen hauling in six passes for 63 yards from Philip Rivers and opening things up for his teammates. Unfortunately, Allen sustained what might be a season-ending injury, and the offense never looked as good once he was out.
Miami (+10.5) in 12-10 loss at Seattle
The Dolphins were clearly the right side here, as the Seahawks were never ahead by more than the spread -- of course, that's quite hard to do as 10.5-point favorites when you only score six points in the first 59:29. The under-44 bet was one of the easiest winning wagers of the day. As I mentioned many times when picking Miami here at ESPN Chalk and on our betting podcast, Seattle's biggest weakness is its offensive line, and Russell Wilson was sacked three times while running for his life all afternoon. Upgrade the Miami defense, but the offensive line will continue to make Seattle a vulnerable favorite.
Tampa Bay (+2.5) in 31-24 win at Atlanta
The Buccaneers fell behind 10-3, but then went up 17-13 by halftime and 31-13 with 5:12 left in the third quarter before coasting to the upset. A lot of people are praising Jameis Winston and the Bucs' offense, specifically Charles Sims' 28-yard catch-and-run TD, but what I saw was a bunch of missed tackles and an Atlanta defense that was supposed to be improved but got run over at home. Take note.
Minnesota (-2.5) in 25-16 win at Tennessee
This was looking like a 50-50 result when the Vikings led only 12-10, but then two defensive TDs -- Eric Kendricks had a 77-yard interception return and Danielle Hunter had a 24-yard fumble return -- plus two Blair Walsh field goals blew the game open, at 25-10. A garbage-time TD by the Titans with 28 seconds left put the game over the closing total of 40 points, so that was a bit of a bad beat for the under bettors. Overall, we saw the Vikings win with defense and not asking QB Shaun Hill to do much -- just like they did with Teddy Bridgewater behind center. Also, I wouldn't be too quick to downgrade the Titans, as the offense took on a tough defense and showed promise, especially running back DeMarco Murray and wide receiver Tajae Sharpe, while the defense played well enough to win, as it didn't allow a TD by the Minnesota offense.
Philadelphia (-3.5) in 29-10 win vs. Cleveland
This was also looking 50-50 until early in the third quarter. With the Eagles leading 13-10 (but not in excess of the 3.5-point spread), a snap went over Robert Griffin III's head and out of the end zone, giving the Eagles a safety, putting them over the spread; they added two TDs to complete the rout. I was impressed with rookie QB Carson Wentz, as he was a solid 22-for-37 for 278 yards, with two touchdowns and no picks in his debut.
Baltimore (-3) in 13-7 vs. Buffalo
The Ravens won by only six points and the Bills pulled within 10-7 in the second quarter, but the score of the game belied how disparate these teams looked. The Baltimore defense was all over Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor and gave up only one scoring drive, with the one big play to tight end Charles Clay coming on a desperate scramble by Taylor. The Ravens' offense didn't do much (so credit the Buffalo defense as well), but Joe Flacco has a new deep threat in Mike Wallace -- they connected on a 66-yard TD pass on the play of the game -- a combo which bears watching in the weeks ahead.
Detroit (+2.5) in 39-35 win at Indianapolis
The Lions led 14-0 and 21-3 before Andrew Luck mounted a dramatic comeback; even though the Colts took a 35-34 lead, they were never ahead by more than the spread. This game reinforces my preseason take that the Lions' offense would be able to replace Calvin Johnson, as Matthew Stafford was 31-for-39 for 340 yards and three touchdowns while eight different players had receptions. It's also worth noting that Indy's offense line will continue to be a concern, as the Colts have now gone 51 straight games without a 100-yard rusher, while Luck continues to face too much pressure.
New England (+9) in 23-21 win at Arizona
The Patriots jumped out to a 10-0 lead, and the Cardinals never came close to covering the spread, as their biggest lead was 21-20. The obvious takeaway from this game is that the Patriots do whatever it takes to win. Jimmy Garoppolo made all the plays he was supposed to make in place of Tom Brady, the runners and receivers always seemed to get what they need to move the chains and the defense stood up to the Cardinals' potent offense. I wouldn't discount the Cards for losing to a better team -- and they nearly won, of course, as the normally reliable Chandler Catanzaro missed a potential 47-yard game-winning field goal thanks to a bad snap.
50-50 ATS results
Cincinnati (-1) pushes in 23-22 win at New York (A)
This came could have gone either way -- with five lead changes -- and fittingly pushed against the closing number, ending with Mike Nugent's 47-yard field goal with 0:54 to play. Nugent's game-winning kick also sent the game over the total of 42; had he missed, it would have been a push. I came away from this game with the reinforced opinion that both teams are going to be fine. Despite losing at home, the Jets went toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the league, while the Bengals persevered in a road game against a tough opponent.
New York (N) (-1) pushes in 20-19 win at Dallas
This was nearly in the bad-beat category, as the Cowboys were mostly in control of the game; however, they settled for too many field goals and allowed the Giants to stay in the game. The G-men scored three touchdowns and took the lead with each one, culminating with the Eli Manning-to-Victor Cruz three-yard TD pass with 6:13 to play. I came away from this game with a greater appreciation of the Giants. The defense allowed just one touchdown while forcing four field goals, and the offense isn't just Odell Beckham Jr., as the return of Victor Cruz and the addition of rookie Sterling Shepard give Eli Manning a lot of weapons.
Oakland (+2.5) in 35-34 win at New Orleans
This was back and forth, as the Raiders grabbed a 10-3 first-quarter lead, but then the Saints scored three unanswered TDs to take a 24-10 lead and looked like the right side. Thereafter, the Raiders rallied and the teams traded scores in the fourth quarter until Oakland won on a two-point conversion while trailing by a point; no matter how that play had gone, the Raiders had covered the spread when Jack Del Rio rolled the dice. I came away from the game happy that it was an easy over bet -- and that both teams should continue to be played that way, as they have wide-open offense and soft defenses.
Houston (-5.5) in 23-14 win vs. Chicago
The Bears led most of the game and were still ahead 14-13 at the start of the fourth quarter, but it wasn't a bad beat per se, as they let the Texans stick around. Nick Novak put Houston over the spread at 20-14 with his extra point after Will Fuller's 18-yard TD reception, and then added a field goal to give the clear decision for those who bet the line when it was at minus-6. While this was my lone ATS loss on the day, I'm not willing to give up on the Bears' offense, as it was facing a tough defense that sacked Jay Cutler five times. Fuller was the star of the game, though he was nearly the goat when he dropped a bomb that should have been an easy 81-yard TD. He'll make it so that teams can't double-team DeAndre Hopkins too often, and will open up the passing game with his speed.
Green Bay (-3.5) in 27-23 win vs. Jacksonville
How you view this result has a lot to do with what point spread you wagered on the game. If you backed the Packers minus-4.5 or higher -- as it was for the whole summer -- or minus-5.5 -- like it was earlier in the week -- the Packers didn't cover. If you laid only 3.5 points, you had a winner. For Jaguars backers, early bettors won, but those waiting until Sunday (and getting the 3.5-point line) lost. Jason Myers' 50-yard field goal with 5:17 left cut the Packers' lead to four and affected all those wagers. My takeaways are that the Jaguars' offense is as good as advertised, while the Packers' offense, despite scoring 27 points, still has some concerns. Aaron Rodgers faced a lot of pressure and his receivers still don't get much separation. The return of Jordy Nelson helped, but he was more of a possession receiver instead of a deep threat (32 yards on six catches, with none more than eight yards).