With the NFL season finally here, we have individual team previews at ESPN Chalk for all 32 teams. I give my overall assessment of each team's strengths and weaknesses heading into the season, including my take on how each team will perform against the spread and if it is a good over/under play. I also give my take on each team's future-book odds, including Super Bowl futures and odds to win the division or conference, if I think that's a better bet. Plus, I give my take on each team's over/under season win total.
Here are all 16 teams in the AFC.
Odds are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday, Sept. 1. "FPI Projection" is the number of wins from ESPN's Football Power Index. "MLE" is the money-line estimate using the CG Technology Weeks 1-16 lines. "W/L/T" is the record using the same method. (Note: Each Week 17 game is set as a pick 'em. Also, CG Technology closed these lines at the start of the preseason, so I've made adjustments for major injuries.)
AFC betting previews | NFC | Super Bowl bets
AFC East
New England Patriots
Super Bowl odds: 6-1 (opened 8-1)
Over/under season win total: 10.5 (O -120/U EVEN)
FPI Projection: 9.9 | MLE: 10.5 | W/L/T: 13-2-1
Overview: The Patriots will play their first four games without Tom Brady, but they're still the favorite to win the Super Bowl and have the highest season win total at 10.5 (along with the Packers, Seahawks, Panthers and Steelers). New England just continues to find players via trade or the waiver wire to fit into its system. Jimmy Garoppolo, who was going to start the first four games last year before Brady's original Deflategate suspension was overturned, takes over but will be an underdog in only the opener at Arizona. If the Patriots knock off the Cardinals, they might go 4-0 or at least 3-1 before Brady returns. Even if they lose the opener, they should be at least 2-2 and possibly 3-1. As great as the Patriots are, they do sometimes just squeak out wins and were a mediocre 7-6-3 last season ATS, so they can be faded on occasion.
Future-book odds: I'm not betting it, but an argument can be made that 6-1 is a fair price to get the best overall team (and coach). It's also hard to imagine any of the other three AFC East teams knocking the Patriots from their throne. The Pats are 4-9 (money line of -225) to win the division at the Westgate.
Over/under win total: This is a tough one with Brady out the first four games, but I'm reminded of 2008 when he missed nearly the whole season and the Patriots went 11-5 with Matt Cassel. Bill Belichick will have them ready from the opening whistle (they were prepared to do it last year) so I expect nothing less than the Patriots running away with the AFC East and battling for home-field advantage -- and that's going to take at least 11 wins, so I lean to the over.
Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl odds: 30-1 (opened 60-1)
Over/under season win total: 8 (O +130/U -150)
FPI Projection: 8.0 | MLE: 7.1 | W/L/T: 6-9-1
Overview: The Bills ranked No. 19 in total defense last year. That doesn't sound too bad, but it certainly was when you consider that Rex Ryan inherited a defense that was fourth in 2014. So what does he do? He brings in his brother, Rob, who led New Orleans to the second-worst defensive ranking in the league.
I'm not sure they can turn things around, and they aren't helped by the fact their first two draft picks (Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland) start the season on injured reserve. The offense, on the other hand, was a pleasant surprise last year with the most rushing yards in the league and Tyrod Taylor taking over the QB role and showing a knack for throwing the long ball. If the defense can step up, the offense should help the Bills stay in most games and be live underdogs. However, since I'm leery of that happening, I'll be more likely to bet overs in their early-season games.
Future-book odds: With such a big gap between the Patriots and the Bills, there are no future bets that look appealing for Buffalo.
Over/under win total: I made the Bills under 8 one of my best bets back in April (when it was only -120) and I still like it now. Through the first 11 games, they're favored only twice (-3 over the New York Jets in Week 2 and -7 over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 6), so they're pretty much doomed to a slow start. It looks like another 8-8 season is the best-case scenario.
New York Jets
Super Bowl odds: 50-1 (opened 30-1)
Over/under season win total: 8 (O +150/U -170)
FPI Projection: 7.5 | MLE: 7.5 | W/L/T: 5-8-3
Overview: The Jets went 10-6 last year and just missed the playoffs, but they showed improvement after Todd Bowles replaced Rex Ryan. The defense ranked No. 4 in total defense with one of the best lines in the game with Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams,plus Darrelle Revis leading the secondary. Ryan Fitzpatrick re-signed at QB and hooked up well with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker and now gets RB Matt Forte to lead what was already a strong running game and give Fitzpatrick another dangerous threat out of the backfield.
I'm likely to be on the Jets anytime they're an underdog, which should be roughly every other week as the CG Technology advance lines have them as underdogs in at least eight games this season (and three pick-ems that could go either way).
Future-book odds: The Jets can contend for a wild-card spot, but I don't see them as being able to knock off the Patriots in the AFC East (and odds of 11-2 aren't big enough to take a flier) or having any value at 25-1 to win the AFC or 50-1 to win the Super Bowl.
Over/under win total: I had a lean on the Jets under 8 back in April, but that was when Fitzpatrick was holding out and I expected the number to go higher if he signed. Well, the oddsmakers obviously felt all along that he would return to the fold, as the odds didn't budge. So I actually think now that the value is on the over 8, especially at the current +150 price.
Miami Dolphins
Super Bowl odds: 80-1 (opened 50-1)
Over/under season win total: 7 (O +110/U -130)
FPI Projection: 7.0 | MLE: 7.1 | W/L/T: 4-10-2
Overview: The Dolphins are a team that seems to perpetually be on the verge of breaking through, yet they've made the playoffs just once since 2001 (that was in 2008). Now it's QB guru Adam Gase's chance as the 10th Miami head coach since Don Shula retired 21 years ago. Gase is working with QB Ryan Tannehill, whose career has been just like the Dolphins of recent years: full of potential but never putting it all together. He has a lot of weapons (Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker) and Arian Foster replaces Lamar Miller at running back. The defense adds Mario Williams to a strong front line with Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake, but if the Dolphins don't get to the opposing QB, the secondary is lacking. All in all, I wouldn't trust them when favored and I'm not sure how often I'll look to back them as underdogs.
Future-book odds: Similar to the other also-rans in the AFC East, the Dolphins don't have appealing future-book odds at any price.
Over/under win total: I had a lean on the Dolphins under 7 back when the schedule was announced and feel the same way now. Supporting that opinion is the fact the Dolphins are expected to be favorites in only four games this season, though their FPI is right at 7.0 and our MLE is at 7.1. I would still call it a lean to the under.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl odds: 10-1 (opened 8-1)
Over/under season win total: 10.5 (O +110/U -130)
FPI Projection: 9.9 | MLE: 10.1 | W/L/T: 14-0-2
Overview: The Steelers were my Super Bowl pick last year and it was frustrating to watch as they often looked like the best team in the league yet were repeatedly dealt setbacks with key injuries (Ben Roethlisberger throughout the season, Le'Veon Bell and then DeAngelo Williams going down and Antonio Brown missing the AFC divisional playoffs against Denver). The Steelers should again be among the best teams, especially on offense.
The defense continues to improve and needs LB Ryan Shazier to stay healthy. I'll be more likely to bet the Steelers in individual games than fade them (yes, even when they're favored). The under was 10-6 in Pittsburgh games last year, but the injuries to Big Ben and others certainly contributed to that. I'd expect the Steelers to also be more of an over team this year (though beware of books inflating their totals if the offense gets off to a fast start).
Future-book odds: The Steelers aren't sneaking up on anyone anymore as they're the 9-2 second choice in the AFC (behind the Patriots) and co-second choice at 8-1 to win the Super Bowl. Those are too short for me, but could be bargains if the Steelers can get a first-round bye.
Over/under win total: I made the Steelers over 10.5 one of my best bets back in April. I still feel that way (and like the +110 on the over 10.5) even though FPI comes up a little short at 9.9 and the MLE at 10.1. The Steelers are not expected to be an underdog in any game this season, with just two pick-ems: Week 15 at Cincinnati and Week 17 at Cleveland, where they'll definitely be favored unless they've locked up their playoff spot and are resting starters (and even then their backups might be favored over the Browns).
Cincinnati Bengals
Super Bowl odds: 20-1 (opened 12-1)
Over/under season win total: 9.5 (O EVEN/U -120)
FPI Projection: 9.1 | MLE: 9.4 | W/L/T: 12-2-2
Overview: We all know about Cincinnati's playoff woes with head coach Marvin Lewis and QB Andy Dalton, but they continue to be a good bet during the regular season (12-3-1 ATS last year, second only to Minnesota). The Bengals again have among the best overall talent in the league. However, they will miss LB Vontaze Burfict for the first three games due to a suspension for his hit on Antonio Brown in the playoffs and TE Tyler Eifert for about the first month while he recovers from ankle surgery.
Still, I expect them to have success with a solid defense and a balanced offense with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard running the ball and Dalton spreading the ball around (though I sometimes think he should look A.J. Green's way even more than he already does). I'll probably be on the Bengals +4 in Week 2 at Pittsburgh, and they should be back at full strength (barring future injuries of course) in Week 6 at New England.
Future-book odds: The Bengals are the 8-5 second choice behind the Steelers to win the AFC North; it's tempting though they might be chasing the Steelers all year unless they can pull the Week 2 upset. If we can ignore the Bengals' playoff curse, their 12-1 to win the AFC and 20-1 to win the Super Bowl are among the best value bets on the futures board.
Over/under win total: There's a little doubt with the FPI at 9.1 and our MLE at 9.4, but I like the Bengals to go over 9.5 wins again. I don't see much of a falloff from last year's 12-4 team. Besides, the encouraging number is the 12 games that the Bengals are expected to be favored in this year. They don't need to win them all to get over the total and, as stated above, I give them a decent shot to win some of the rare games where they'll be underdogs or pick-em.
Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl odds: 30-1 (opened 40-1)
Over/under season win total: 8.5 (O -110/U -110)
FPI Projection: 8.5 | MLE: 8.5 | W/L/T: 8-7-1
Overview: Back in April, I liked the Ravens to stay under 8.5 wins, but I've been rethinking my position. Baltimore is coming off a 5-11 season, but the Ravens were in most every game despite being devastated by injuries. Fourteen offensive players ended the season on IR, yet the offense still ranked No. 14 overall with 359.3 yards per game. QB Joe Flacco is healthy, and Justin Forsett will be back at RB after being cut and brought back.
The Ravens are certainly better than a five-win team, but I personally think there's still a gap between them and the Steelers and Bengals. When it comes to individual games, I'll be on the Ravens more often than not (and hope they pull out those close games that slipped away last year).
Future-book odds: The Ravens' odds are juicy at 7-2 to win the AFC North, 15-1 to win the AFC and 30-1 to win the Super Bowl, but I just can't pull the trigger as I don't expect them to be able to catch Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.
Over/under win total: As stated above, I no longer like the under. I actually believe the over is more likely as the Ravens should be capable of a 9-7 season, but not sure it's worth a wager with the FPI, MLE and W/L/T all at 8.5, which makes it a coin flip.
Cleveland Browns
Super Bowl odds: 200-1 (opened 200-1)
Over/under season win total: 4.5 (over -150/under +130)
FPI Projection: 5.0 | MLE: 4.8 | W/L/T: 0-15-1
Overview: I was down on the Browns like everyone, but I'm starting to warm up to them as Robert Griffin III looked like he could revive his career in the preseason. They're going to be without WR Josh Gordon for the first four games, so that tempers my enthusiasm for backing them a little until he's in the lineup, but Griffin does have a go-to guy in TE Gary Barnidge and former Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor has shown promise in still learning the wide receiver position. The (lack of) defense is the biggest problem for the Browns, so if the offense ends up even halfway decent, they should be a good "over" team. Last year, they were 8-3 with the over before going under in the last five games as the offense averaged just 13 points per game down the stretch.
Future-book odds: I wouldn't consider any future-book bet on the Browns at any price.
Over/under win total: I liked the Browns under 4.5 back in April, but don't feel that strongly about it now. I would still lean that way -- especially when you consider that they're not expected to be favored in any game and the only "tie" in their W/L/T is Week 17 against Pittsburgh when they'll certainly be an underdog unless the Steelers are locked into their playoff position and resting their starters -- but I think they'll be able to pull a few upsets and flirt with four or five wins.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Super Bowl odds: 20-1 (opened 20-1)
Over/under season win total: 9 (O +120/U -140)
FPI Projection: 8.8 | MLE: 8.6 | W/L/T: 8-7-1
Overview: An Andrew Luck injury-filled season caused Indianapolis to miss the playoffs for the first time in his four seasons and lose its stranglehold on the AFC South to Houston. The offensive line has been upgraded to help protect Luck, but it's not so clear that the defense will improve much (and it hasn't cracked the top 20 in yards allowed in Luck's tenure). That combo leads me to believe the Colts will be a profitable play with overs.
Despite Luck's knack for the two-minute drill (and getting wins or at least backdoor covers), I doubt I'll be backing the Colts much as underdogs as they're projected to be 'dogs of more than a field goal in only two games (+5 at Denver in Week 2 and +6 at Green Bay in Week 9).
Future-book odds: The Colts are appealing at 2-1 to win the AFC South if you believe last year was a hiccup (and a case could be made as they still went 8-8 despite Luck missing five games). I'm not so sure their 10-1 odds to win the AFC or 20-1 to win the Super Bowl offer as much value.
Over/under win total: Back in April, I had a lean on the Colts under 9 as they looked more likely to win 8 games as opposed to getting to 10. I still believe that and it's supported by the FPI, MLE and W/L/T, but again I wouldn't call it a best bet.
Houston Texans
Super Bowl odds: 14-1 (opened 40-1)
Over/under season win total: 8.5 (O -120/U EVEN)
FPI Projection: 8.4 | MLE: 8.1 | W/L/T: 7-7-2
Overview: The Texans are coming off a 9-7 season in which they finally got over the hump in the AFC South. It's looking like they should be even better this year as they brought in QB Brock Osweiler from Denver, RB Lamar Miller from Miami and Jadeveon Clowney looks ready to join J.J. Watt in making the defense stronger. Advance lines from CG Technology sportsbooks here in Vegas have the Texans favored in only seven games this season, so I'll definitely be looking to play them as underdogs. Now, I'm not a huge Osweiler fan, but I do believe he fits this team as he'll be asked to be a game manager (even with a weapon like WR DeAndre Hopkins) just like he was in Denver, so I'm counting on Houston being more of an under team this year.
Future-book odds: After Super Bowl 50, I made the Texans my Super Bowl 51 value play from the AFC at 40-1 (my overall top long-shot pick was and still is the Atlanta Falcons). The Texans are now 14-1, so they've lost a lot of value.
Over/under win total: The FPI, MLE and W/L/T all disagree with me as they're all under 8.5 wins, but I bet this at over 8 (-140) when the schedules first came out and still like the over 8.5 as we still need another 9-7 record to cash.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Super Bowl odds: 50-1 (opened 50-1)
Over/under season win total: 7.5 (O -125/U +105)
FPI Projection: 7.1 | MLE: 6.7 | W/L/T: 1-12-3
Overview: For the first time in a long time, there's a lot of optimism in Jacksonville -- and a lot of optimism from bettors in Vegas, as the Jaguars were one of the most popular over bets after season win totals were posted this spring. QB Blake Bortles has a talented supporting cast with WR Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, plus TE Julius Thomas as well as Chris Ivory joining T.J. Yeldon in the backfield. The defense is also expected to improve with draft picks Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack.
Despite all the good news, the Jaguars are still projected to be underdogs in at least 12 games, so there should be ample opportunity to take them plus the points. Until the defense comes together, I'd expect them to also be a good over bet -- like last year when they were 10-6 with the over.
Future-book odds: Jacksonville is moving in the right direction, but it's still a level below Indianapolis and Houston, so I'll pass on any futures.
Over/under win total: I expect the Jaguars to cover more point spreads, but I'm not sure how many outright wins that will turn into. I leaned to the under 7.5 back in April and still feel that way as the FPI comes in at 7.1 and our MLE at 6.7 (and there's that glaring 1-12-3 W/L/T, with the Jaguars projected to be favored only in Week 16 vs. Tennessee).
Tennessee Titans
Super Bowl odds: 80-1 (opened 50-1)
Over/under season win total: 6 (O -150/U +130)
FPI Projection: 6.2 | MLE: 5.7 | W/L/T: 1-13-2
Overview: Similar to Jacksonville, Tennessee appears to be heading in the right direction. QB Marcus Mariota continues to develop and should have a lot of pressure taken off him with a running game featuring both free-agent RB DeMarco Murray and draft pick Derrick Henry. The defense isn't as promising, as it was a surprising No. 12 in yards allowed but No. 27 in points allowed at 26.4 per game (that's the opposite of a bend-but-don't-break defense). Regardless, I'm sure I'll find some spots for the Titans to be live underdogs (+5 in Week 2 at Detroit, +7 at Houston in Week 4 and +5.5 at Miami in Week 5 being early possibilities).
Future-book odds: Again, as with Jacksonville, there's a gap between Tennessee and the rest of the division and there aren't any appealing futures.
Over/under win total: The Titans' win total is just 6, so the over is tempting (it did open at 5.5 and there was early money on the over) since they should be improved, but it's still hard to see them racking up wins. They're projected to be favored in only one game (-3.5 vs. Cleveland in Week 6) and the FPI and MLE come in right around the total of 6. It's a pass for me with a lean on the under.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl odds: 20-1 (opened 20-1)
Over/under season win total: 9.5 (O -140/U +120)
FPI Projection: 9.3 | MLE: 9.4 | W/L/T: 8-4-4
Overview: A lot of people outside Vegas probably don't know this, but the Chiefs are favored over the Broncos in the AFC West and have a higher over/under season win total (well, they're actually both at 9.5 but the vig on the Chiefs' over is higher).
A 10-game winning streak will do that (plus the fact the Broncos lost both Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler). The Chiefs should be strong on defense again (No. 7 in yards allowed and No. 3 in points allowed in 2015) and have an offense that features Alex Smith spreading the ball around and a running game that excels even when Jamaal Charles isn't healthy. However, the Chiefs don't blow people out, so they're a good team to fade (they were only 8-8 ATS despite their 11-5 SU record). With their solid defense and conservative offense, I'll also be looking to play them under the total.
Future-book odds: The Chiefs won't sneak up on anyone this year and their 9-5 odds to win the AFC West is an underlay with the Broncos still a major threat and the improved Raiders. Their odds of 9-1 to win the AFC and 20-1 to win the Super Bowl are also too short for me.
Over/under win total: Back in April, I had a lean on the Chiefs under 9, so I really like it now that it's been bet up to 9.5 (and +120 to boot!). The FPI at 9.3 and MLE at 9.4 slightly agree, though it is a little concerning that they're clear underdogs in just four games (how they fare in the four pick 'em games will tell the tale).
Denver Broncos
Super Bowl odds: 25-1 (opened 20-1)
Over/under season win total: 9.5 (over +130/under -150)
FPI Projection: 9.0 | MLE: 9.4 | W/L/T: 11-4-1
Overview: The defending Super Bowl champions lost Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler (and unproven Trevor Siemian beat out Mark Sanchez in the preseason), but the team is still led by a top defense and a running game that rolls on no matter who is carrying the load. I would definitely lean to the unders in Denver's games, but beware because it's likely the oddsmakers will be shading their numbers that way (note: there is only one Week 1 total lower than the 41.5 in the Broncos' opener against the Panthers). For a Super Bowl champ, we'll get the rare chance to play them as underdogs in an estimated four games this season, starting with plus-3 vs. Carolina in the opener (though I'm personally waiting for plus-3.5).
Future-book odds: I know it's a leap of faith with Siemian being so inexperienced, but I have to say that the Broncos look like a value play at 25-1 to repeat as Super Bowl champs. I also wouldn't talk anyone off a bet on them at 12-1 to win the AFC or even 2-1 in the AFC West.
Over/under win total: When the over/under win totals came out in April, I made the Broncos over 9.5 one of my best bets. I believe they've been downgraded too much. The FPI of 9.0 projects an under, but our MLE has it closer at 9.4, while it's encouraging that the Broncos are still projected to be favored in 11 games (it was 12 as they opened favored over Carolina in the season opener, but I also disagree with that line move).
Oakland Raiders
Super Bowl odds: 20-1 (opened 50-1)
Over/under season win total: 8.5 (over -110/under -110)
FPI Projection: 8.3 | MLE: 8.3 | W/L/T: 7-6-3
Overview: There's been a lot of excitement here in Vegas in regards to the Raiders (and not just because the team is flirting with moving here). The offense made great strides last year with QB Derek Carr and WR Amari Cooper as well as RB Latavius Murray emerging as a 1,000-yard rusher. The defense still has a lot of room for improvement, but it does have a superstar in Khalil Mack (15 sacks in 2015, second only to J.J. Watt). However, I'm starting to think the enthusiasm might be a little premature. Carr still shows signs of inconsistency and the Raiders might still be a year or two away. If the public continues to overrate Oakland, I'll probably end up fading the Raiders more than backing them this season. The overs might also be playable.
Future-book odds: If you believe the Raiders can continue to improve and that the Broncos and Chiefs will regress, the 5-2 to win the division could be appealing, but I'll pass. The 10-1 to win the AFC and 20-1 to win the Super Bowl are way too short for me.
Over/under win total: I was with the majority of people when the schedule came out in liking the Raiders to go over 8.5 wins, but I'm less confident in it now. The FPI and MLE are just under at 8.2 and the Raiders are projected to be favored in only seven games. It now looks like a coin flip between the Raiders finishing with 8 or 9 wins.
San Diego Chargers
Super Bowl odds: 50-1 (opened 50-1)
Over/under season win total: 7 (over -180/under +160)
FPI Projection: 7.1 | MLE: 7.0 | W/L/T: 7-8-1
Overview: The Chargers are certainly better than their 4-12 record last year as injuries took their toll, as did the loss of WR Keenan Allen and a weak offensive line that had QB Philip Rivers running for his life. Still, the Chargers ended up 7-4 ATS in games where they were underdogs (while a woeful 1-5 ATS as favorites). I'll be looking to bet them that way again this year: backing as 'dogs and fading as faves. The defense should be improved (though the lengthy holdout by No. 3 overall pick Joey Bosa didn't help) but the Chargers should also be a pretty good over bet in individual games.
Future-book odds: While I think the Chargers will improve, I wouldn't take 6-1 for them to overtake the other three teams to win the AFC West. Likewise, their 25-1 odds to win the AFC and 50-1 to win the Super Bowl aren't high enough to warrant a play.
Over/under win total: I leaned to the Chargers over 7 back in April and feel the same now, but not enough to make it a best bet (and certainly wouldn't lay the increased vig of -180 to get the over 7).