College season win totals are a good way to gauge the sense of the market and Las Vegas' expectations for teams.
Last year in this article I gave out eight season win totals and those selections went 5-2, with one "no bet" (LSU).
There were three over wins in Miami (FL) over 5.5 (won 8 games), San Diego State over 7.5 (won 9) and Bowling Green over 5.5 (won 10). There were two under wins in Colorado State under 7.5 (won 7) and Buffalo under 5.5 (won 5). The losses were Penn State over 7.5 (won 7) and USC over 8.5 (won 8).
Below is a look at my top eight early-season win totals plays for the 2016 college football season.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes (over 6.5)
Miami draws both Florida State and Notre Dame outside its division, but the Hurricanes play in the winnable ACC Coastal and the rest of the schedule is manageable.
Cincinnati Bearcats (over 6.5)
This may be my favorite play on the board. Despite myriad injuries last year the Bearcats won seven games. They were minus-19 in turnovers, which they should improve upon. Despite their 4-4 mark in the American Conference, they were plus-167 yards per game, which was a league best. They have eight starters back on defense and two quarterbacks with starting experience, are 26-5 at home the past five years and have seven home games. Plus, Cincinnati faces only one team on the road that had a winning record last year. Six of my nine sets of power ratings call for a double-digit win season.
Purdue Boilermakers (under 4.5)
Purdue is the most experienced team in the Big Ten and has 16 returning starters. There is no doubt this is the best team that coach Darrell Hazell has put on the field in his four years at Purdue, during which they are just 2-22 in Big Ten play. Not only do they have just four Big Ten home games (five on road), those home games are versus Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. The most winnable Big Ten games are all on the road. The Boilermakers have been outgained by an average of 153 yards per game in Big Ten play under Hazell, so they have some ground to make up and must win five games to beat me here.
TCU Horned Frogs (over 8)
Just two years ago TCU was coming off a four-win season and I had them my No. 1 most improved team and No. 4 surprise team (national title contender) in the country; they just missed making the first-ever College Football Playoff. The Frogs are now off 12- and 11-win seasons, so this win total of eight is low for me. TCU has been picked as low as fifth or sixth in the Big 12 in some preseason magazines, but I have them second. While they have just three returning starters on offense, I like quarterback Kenny Hill and the replacements at wide receiver. On defense they have eight starters back and I rate them top 20 on both sides of the ball. They face only my 48th-toughest schedule and that road trip to Baylor doesn't seem as daunting as it did two months ago. I have them favored in most games and don't see them as more than a 3-point 'dog in any game this year.
San Diego State Aztecs (over 8.5)
On the surface this looks like a tough number as San Diego State has won just seven, seven and nine games the past three years. On offense they have RB Donnel Pumphrey back and my computer projects the Aztecs to average 240 rushing yards per game this year. They have a top-15 defense, with seven starters back. You can win a lot of games with a solid running game and defense, and I don't have them as a 'dog in a single game this year (couple of toss-ups). I had the Aztecs on this list last year and they look like an even stronger squad this season.
Arizona State Sun Devils (over 5)
I understand where the number comes from, as the Sun Devils won only six games last year, have 10 returning starters and are the least experienced team in the Pac 12. Todd Graham has brought in double-digit junior college transfers to give them a more experienced team than they appear on paper. I like the size and speed of this year's team overall. Graham has won an average of eight games per year in his four seasons at Arizona State, while never winning fewer than six, so this number is very cheap.
FIU Golden Panthers (under 6.5)
This number appears high to me. The past 10 years FIU is a combined 37-85, which is an average of just 3.7 wins per year, and they have reached seven wins once (eight in 2011). The Panthers return 14 starters, including quarterback Alex McGough, but lose all four defensive linemen, who combined for 16.5 sacks, and have just 0.5 sacks returning. They have two Big Ten teams in nonconference play and overall CUSA looks to be a tougher league in 2016.
Toledo Rockets (over 6.5)
The last time Toledo lost its head coach, the Rockets hired the offensive coordinator and he coached and won the bowl game and led the Rockets to 35 wins in four years. They have gone the same route this time, as Jason Candle was the head man for the bowl and they beat a very good Temple team 32-17. The last time Toledo failed to top 6.5 wins in the regular season was last decade (2009). They have a top-20 offensive line and a top-20 set of running backs. Despite the coaching change, it should be status quo at Toledo, and that means more than 6.5 wins.