Reason for optimism: Getting 32 starts from David Price instead of Wade Miley is a huge upgrade.
Reason for pessimism: Unfortunately, Price can't replace Joe Kelly's and Rick Porcello's starts as well.
I told you so.
Last year in the Red Sox preview and more forcefully in a blog entry that expanded on the analysis, I expressed wonder that the team that won an auction for Pablo Sandoval's services played in an environment that was the worst match possible for his skill set. As predicted, Sandoval had the worst year of his career in every meaningful offensive category, to the point that considering the amount of playing time he got, at -2.0 fWAR, he was the worst player in the major leagues. That and the just-as-curious-decision to sign Hanley Ramirez to play the tricky left field position in Fenway Park are what doomed Boston to, amazingly, its third last-place finish in the AL East in the past four seasons.
The Ramirez and Sandoval problems haven't been solved. In fact, the move of Ramirez to first base might worsen the offense without helping the defense. At one time, Ramirez's offensive production would have played at first base, which made him an MVP candidate, considering the numbers he put up at the beginning of his career as a shortstop. However, besides a 336-plate appearance surge in 2013 with the Dodgers, Ramirez hasn't had production that would positively qualify him to play first base since 2010. Fortunately for the Red Sox, the bar for improvement from last year's 78-win team is low; Boston's first base combo of Travis Shaw and Mike Napoli hit just .233 and slugged .426, which would represent career lows for Ramirez.
Besides Ramirez, Sandoval and weak-hitting first basemen, Boston's other core weakness last year was the rotation, and that, happily for Red Sox fans, has been addressed in a big way. Price, signed as a free agent, gives Boston the true ace it hasn't had since at least Jon Lester and maybe since Curt Schilling. While the addition of Price instantly vaults Boston back to the ranks of .500 teams, the bad news is it corrects only one-third of last year's rotation problem.
Miley, Porcello and Kelly were 1-2-3 in starts and innings pitched for Boston last year, and the best ERA among them was Miley's 4.46 mark. With American League starters carding an average ERA of 4.14, that sort of performance from Boston's top three put the Red Sox at a huge competitive disadvantage any time they faced an opposing team's top starters. Kelly and Porcello return this year and are joined by Clay Buchholz and Eduardo Rodriguez, who each had good years in 2015. That makes improvement from Miley and Porcello absolutely paramount if Boston is going to make the postseason.
Compared to the last-place squad in 2014, there was nothing wrong with the offense last year, as runs scored jumped by 114, even though Sandoval and Ramirez didn't really help the cause. Youngsters Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. all had the best years of their careers, and not one of them is on the wrong side of 25.
Key pieces of the Red Sox's success this year will be whether that trio can build on that production, given their still-peaking aging curve, and, crucially if the team wants to win 90 or more games, whether Blake Swihart and Rusney Castillo can add breakout seasons of their own. Until proven otherwise, there seems to be little reason to worry about the contributions of David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia.
There is another member of the team whose contribution would seem to be all but automatic, and that's new closer Craig Kimbrel. With former closers Koji Uehara, a hero of the 2014 World Series, and Carson Smith, mysteriously traded by Seattle, paired with Kimbrel and Junichi Tazawa, the Red Sox have not three but four one-inning specialists who could post a sub-3.00 ERA. Take that, New York and Kansas City!
With Price added to the rotation and a bullpen prepared to take over in the sixth inning, the Red Sox have done everything possible to reduce the drag last year's rotation had on the team. However, there was another factor in the runs allowed equation: The defense ranked 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and that shows no signs of improving this year. As a result, look for Price's ERA and maybe some of the relievers' ERAs to be a bit higher than they might deserve, given their skill sets.
Although a division crown wouldn't surprise me, were the Red Sox to finish in last place yet again, I would be stunned. This is a team that still has flaws, but they look like the kind of flaws that stop a team from getting to the playoffs -- not from contending to get there. The additions of Price and Kimbrel are, of course, noticed by everyone, and that's why a team coming off a 78-win season with a 40-year old leading the offense enters this year with a total wins market of 87.5, the highest in its division and the second highest in the American League.
On a relative basis, that might be a bit optimistic, but on its own, the market is fair.
2016 projection: 87-75 (second in the AL East)
Bet recommendation: Pass