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Betting preview: Arkansas Razorbacks

With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- give you betting previews of the top 25 teams in the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sept. 1.

Arkansas Razorbacks

National title odds: 40-1
Season win total: 8


Phil Steele

Strengths: Arkansas is a team on the rise. Bret Bielema opened 0-13 in SEC play but won two of his past three, including back-to-back shutouts of ranked LSU and Ole Miss teams. He is now in the third year of the switch from a pass-based offense to a run-based attack, and he has a huge, experienced offensive line, two 1,000-yard RBs and QB Brandon Allen. The Razorbacks are a notch weaker on defense but allowed just 19.2 PPG last year and still have a top-25 defense. They had four close losses last year, so basically they were four plays from being an 11-2 team.

Weaknesses: The Hogs only had 24 sacks on defense last year, and 12.5 of them departed with four NFL draft picks. They have just three SEC home games, with four road games and a neutral site game against Texas A&M in Arlington. They have four road games against ranked teams in Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Tennessee.

Over/under: This is right where I have the number, as I have Arkansas the underdog in four games this year and favored in eight. Two of those games I have Arkansas a three-point (or less) underdog and two of them a three-point (or less) favorite. I will side with the momentum and pick the over if I have to choose.

National title odds: I was actually hoping the odds were a little higher. This team is still learning how to win and, even in its solid stretch run last year, lost at Mississippi State and Missouri. The Razorbacks are 1-8 on the road under Bielema, and I can't see them winning two of three against Alabama, Auburn and LSU on the road, so there is no value here.


"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Are people really believing the Razorbacks are SEC West title contenders in 2015? If you are an SEC West title contender, that means you are a national championship title contender. I gave out coach Bielema's team as a winner quite a few times last year, such as when they hosted LSU the week after the Tigers played Alabama ... and when they lost a close game to Texas A&M in Arlington.

Arkansas has a very front-loaded schedule, and I have to think coach Bielema likes that, considering he will know exactly how his team is pretty early in the year. I see the Oct. 3 game, when the Razorbacks travel to Knoxville to play everyone's darling this year, as a critical game, especially considering they play Alabama and Auburn the two following games.

The Hogs did lose 2,000-yard rusher Jonathan Williams for an indefinite amount of time this preseason. I don't think that is as big a loss as people are making it out to be because with the offensive line Bielema has, the guy carrying the ball only needs his eyes to see where the daylight is.

O/U: I see an undefeated end to the season, predicting Arkansas wins its last five games of the year. I'm just not confident Arkansas has the depth needed to win the SEC West. Take the over.


Chris Fallica

Arkansas snapped a long SEC losing streak and could have been even better last year. The SEC West is so tough to forecast, but it looks like the Hogs have turned the corner for Bielema. I like them and can't fault anyone who does or thinks they could be a 10-win team this year. I wouldn't downgrade Arkansas too much based on the Williams injury, either.

O/U: Eight seems like the "right" number, as all four road games are possible losses, considering the Hogs haven't won an SEC road game since 2012. There is a chance again this year that Arkansas is the best seven-win team in the country. Arkansas hasn't won a conference game as a favorite since 2012.

Title odds: Odds of 40-1 seem low for Arkansas, as it is one of the steam teams entering 2015. Yes, the Razorbacks finished on a roll last year, but they lost five starters from a defense that shut out LSU and Ole Miss and allowed 14 points to Bama and 17 to Mississippi State. I'll pass at an underlaid price.