With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to give you betting previews of the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.
Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sept. 1.
Baylor Bears
National title odds: 8-1
Season win total: 10
Phil Steele
Strengths: Talent. Baylor returns 18 starters
Weaknesses: Overall schedule and winning on the road. When Nov. 1 hits, I would expect Baylor to be in the top three in the FBS in offense, top 25 on defense and No. 1 in scoring margin. Most of the Bears' wins will be dominant blowouts. However, Baylor's November schedule is the toughest in the country. It starts with a road game against coach Bill Snyder and Kansas State on a Thursday, followed by a home tilt versus Oklahoma and a road game at Oklahoma State. (Two years ago, the then-No. 3 Bears traveled to Stillwater, Oklahoma, as a touchdown favorite and lost 49-17.) They round out the month with a third road game, on a short week no less, versus revenge-minded TCU, who will be playing its final home and regular-season game. And things don't get particularly better in December, as a week after facing TCU the Bears meet a physical Texas team.
Add to the mix that Baylor has one of the largest home/away dichotomies in the country; over the past four years, Baylor has gone 25-1 at home, outgaining foes by 247 yards per game and outscoring opponents by 27.3 points per game. Yet on the road during that span, they are just 9-9, outgaining opponents by 52 yards and outscoring them by 3.0 PPG.
Over/under: Six of my nine sets of power ratings call for Baylor to exceed the 10-win total, but looking at that November schedule, I would expect a couple of losses, so this is a "no play" for me.
National title: I wouldn't want to face Art Briles' offense if I was a defensive coordinator, and in a one-game setting at a neutral site, the Bears can stand toe to toe with anyone. However, that November gauntlet has me passing, especially on the present 8-1 odds.
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin
One of the things I feel most confident in this year is that the Bears will start the season 7-0. I love Baylor's personnel every year, especially their wideouts, and it has been pretty evident that Briles' system can produce a Heisman Trophy winner, whether his quarterback is RG III or Bryce Petty. The Bears will have lofty expectations for Russell, and I'm sure I'll fall in love with more Baylor wide receivers, as I have in the past with guys such as Terrance Williams, Antwan Goodly and Tevin Reese.
The biggest question I think people have nationally with Baylor is taking its defense seriously. They have monsters such as defensive end, Shawn Oakman who look like world-beaters, but when you talk to NFL scouts, they always seem to want more from these players on this side of the ball. So, when I try to forecast the season for the Bears, I have to think they will lose three or three games at the end of their season, as they close with games at Kansas State, versus Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, at TCU and versus Texas. If they end the season with one loss, I would like their chances to make the College Football Playoff more than last year.
O/U: I'll say the Bears stumble to end the season and don't make it to their total. Take the under.
Chris Fallica
Is it as easy as Baylor or TCU in the Big 12 this year? I'm not sure. The Bears can certainly outscore anyone on their schedule, but they are susceptible to having "that game" every year -- last year it was at West Virginia, two years ago at Oklahoma State. However, if you asked me right now to pick a Big 12 champion, I would side with Baylor.
O/U: I'd play over, as I don't think the Bears will go worse than 10-2. Baylor will start 7-0, and I don't think it will lose three of its final five games to finish 9-3. I think the Bears are the team to beat in the Big 12 despite games at Oklahoma State and TCU. The past six times Baylor has been involved in a game in which the spread was single digits, the Bears were just 3-3 straight up.
Title odds: I'm not a fan of taking anyone shorter than 30-1 or so to win the title, but 12-1 odds were tempting just because of the likelihood Baylor will find itself in the mix come November. Maybe the nonconference schedule hurts an 11-1 Baylor if it is being compared to another 11-1 contender, but if the Bears win those final five games, there will be no denying their claim to the playoff. At 8-1, I think the value is diminished.