We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Atlanta Braves
Vegas projection: 73.5 wins
My projection: 70 wins
Current record/pace: 42-47 (76-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 75.2 wins
What has gone right: Despite shedding four of their top six offensive producers last season, as well as three pitchers with a total of 8.0 WAR (including Craig Kimbrel on the eve of Opening Day), the Braves ended the first half of their 2015 schedule on a pace to win more games (80) than they won last year (79).
Shelby Miller, acquired for Heyward, has had the best season of his career. And while no one thinks his 2015 ERA of 2.38 is as sustainable as oh, David Price's, Miller's results this year have been highlighted by an increased strikeout rate and career-low walk rate, all while becoming a groundball machine.
Perhaps Cameron Maybin just needed a change of scenery. The former highly touted prospect (in both the Tigers' and Marlins' organizations) has now been traded for Miguel Cabrera and Kimbrel. He's having his best year at the plate since 2011.
What has gone wrong: Atlanta has been very lucky to hang around the .500 mark this year. The Braves have been materially outscored by their opponents and even that is deceiving. At both the plate and on the mound, the Braves have registered positive cluster luck. Stripped of all luck, which is to say that if the Braves got exactly the same type of production from their hitters and gave up exactly the same mix of hits to their opponents, they are more likely a 70-win team than an 80-win team.
Sabermetric adherents are known to believe that closers are largely interchangeable. But even the most staunch defender of the "anyone-can-close" thesis has to admit that there has never been a closer like Kimbrel during his first four years with the Braves. Atlanta is still doing fine in the saves category -- tied for fourth in the majors with 30 -- so in terms of accumulating counting stats, it's probably true that there's always someone else on the roster who can get saves (Heath Bell, excepted). But the loss of Kimbrel's annual 60 innings of 1.00-something ERA production ripples across the entire bullpen. As a result, despite the gaudy saves total, the Braves bullpen has a 4.31 ERA, third worst in baseball.
Second-half outlook: As is the case with a lot of these teams, it's clear that oddsmakers are looking at a lot of the same data that we are. The Braves have not been priced as a .500 team all year and it's not likely to happen going forward. Still, I'm going to go a bit further and project the Braves to have a very rough second half of the year that will put their preseason win total of 73.5 in play.