ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta Braves
Reason for optimism: Andrelton Simmons, Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel are young enough to still be valuable assets the next time the team is poised to win 90 games.
Reason for pessimism: The front office in charge of constructing the next 90-win team is paying $28.25 million to Dan Uggla and Melvin Upton this year.
It's often easy to see an impending drop-off in production, like with the Houston Astros a decade ago, or, more recently, the Philadelphia Phillies. Some combination of age and unsustainable elements of performance signal a peak in a team's fortunes before the collapse begins. Then, there's the downfall of the Braves.
Atlanta averaged 95 wins a year in 2012 and 2013 and did it with one of the youngest rosters in the majors. The Braves' run differential didn't simply support those results, in 2014, it was so strong (plus-140) that it suggested 98-win talent. Entering last year, the Braves had averaged 90 wins a season for the prior five and had nothing but peaking twentysomething talent in the starting lineup. Atlanta's defense was top tier, the bullpen defied regression (third, first, second and first from 2010 to '13, respectively) while closer Kimbrel posted three years of the most dominant results ever recorded by a modern-day pitcher of any kind.
Yet, here we are on the eve of the 2015 season and the Braves have a legitimate claim as the second-worst team in the National League (the Phillies are on an island by themselves.)
An unexpectedly disastrous free-agent signing of Upton, a silly three-year contract to the horrendous-fielding Chris Johnson, the merciful release of Uggla and serious arm injuries that decimated a promising young pitching staff all contributed to the Braves' 2014 demise. At that point, apparently with an eye on being competitive in their new stadium in 2017, the Braves front office sold off assets, and the result is a team with a 90-loss outlook instead of 90-win potential.
It might not have been a bad decision. The Braves were one of only two teams to get worse every quarter last season, along the way playing 89-win baseball the first 40 games while winning at only a 71-win clip in the final 41. The decline is likely to continue in 2014 because three of the four above-average bats in last year's lineup -- Evan Gattis, Justin Upton and Jason Heyward -- were all traded. Freeman's bat and Simmons' glove are all that remain from the promising lineup of two seasons ago. Nick Markakis is the only new member of the lineup who could reasonably project above-average performance, and that is probably the limit of his upside. The Braves, one of only three teams to score less than 600 runs last year, are poised to repeat that distinction.
Although the rotation lacks an ace in comparison to so many other NL teams who have at least one, it still has the potential to be an above-average staff. That's probably what is needed to keep the Braves from having their final win total start with a 6. They might be at a mild pitching disadvantage when Julio Teheran matches up against a No. 1 counterpart, but the advantage will often shift Atlanta's way by the time Mike Minor, Alex Wood and Shelby Miller get to their turn of the rotation.
How great is Kimbrel? In 289 career innings he has a 1.43 ERA and has struck out 476 batters. Mariano Rivera had only two seasons with an ERA below 1.43 (2003 and 2008 at 1.38 and 1.40, respectively), and those seasons covered just 149 innings. Randy Johnson, at the peak of his powers (2001) struck out 372 batters in 250 innings of work. That's 104 fewer than Kimbrel in just 39 fewer innings of work. It's going to be a shame if he spends his peak seasons toiling for a 90-loss team.
The Braves are yet another example of a team whose win total has been bid up since the posting of the opening market. A look at the roster makes finding the cause of bettors' optimism elusive. Currently sitting at 73.5 wins, an under play looks to have value with a team that will struggle mightily to score runs.
2015 projection: 70-92, (fourth, NL East)
Bet recommendation: Under