We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Miami Marlins
Vegas projection: 83 wins
My projection: 78 wins
Current record/pace: 38-51 (69-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 78.9 wins
What has gone right: For me or the Marlins? In an interview with SportsCenter's Cary Chow previewing the 2015 season, I labeled the Marlins the strongest "under" bet of the season and called it "The Improv Under Bet of the Year" in reference to the catcall "too soon" you often hear in a comedy club when a joke bombs. It turns out it was too soon to consider the Marlins a playoff threat and that has gone very right for anyone who faded the hype that accompanied the team this spring.
For the Marlins, and frankly all baseball fans who love special talents, Jose Fernandez's initial success in a return to the mound from elbow surgery and Giancarlo Stanton cementing his status as a perennial MVP candidate are signs that while it was "too soon" this year to dream on October, we can reassess things next spring.
What's gone wrong: It turns out that bringing in players who were productive in 2011 isn't a great way to construct a roster. To be fair, Dan Haren (3.34 ERA) has been effective but Mat Latos has a 4.90 ERA, and at the plate, the veteran additions have been a collective bust. Newcomers Ichiro Suzuki, Martin Prado, Michael Morse and Jeff Baker have provided a total of minus-0.7 WAR in 800 plate appearances. Signing Casey McGehee, as the Marlins did last week, is a sign that perhaps management doesn't grasp the source of its problems.
All that shuffling of veterans and the predictable injuries led to roster instability. The Marlins have already sent a mind-boggling 22 different non-pitchers to the plate this year.
Finally, unless you're going to hit .400, as Dee Gordon did after his first 170 plate appearances, you simply can't be an effective leadoff hitter with a 3 percent walk rate and no power. Gordon has hit .278 (.296 OBP) in his subsequent 204 trips to the plate, and that's going to have to be addressed in the future.
Second-half outlook: It says above that the Marlins have been priced like a 79-win team, but that's a bit deceiving. They got 82-win pricing in their first 41 games and 76-win pricing in the next 40, which was only somewhat impacted by the hand injury Stanton suffered late last month. Without Stanton, the Marlins are a low-70s win team and they probably won't be priced much higher than that. The time to make money on Miami was in the preseason or during the first couple weeks of the regular season. The Marlins will probably be priced pretty fairly the rest of the year.