ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism. Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Miami Marlins.
Miami Marlins
Reason for optimism: Seven more years of an outfield that averaged 23 years of age and created 14 WAR in 2014.
Reason for pessimism: Ownership's history suggests the outfielders won't be playing for Miami during those peak years.
Although their words had zero credibility at the time, the Marlins front office insisted their near-immediate teardown of the 2012 team (one built with a fantasy baseball-like roster construction) was done with an eye to the future, and they've certainly been vindicated. While some would opt for the next three years of the Pirates' or the Brewers' outfield instead, you can certainly make a case that the Marlins, with the 2014 emergence of Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, may have assembled the best outfield in the National League, anchored by Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton, 25, is the oldest, which makes the Marlins the envy of any observer with a seven-to-ten-year horizon.
The problem for fans expecting immediate gratification is that the Marlins have some meaningful holes that may materially hinder a team trying to contend for the playoffs. Jarrod Saltalamacchia's bat is in decline -- and worse, he ranked last (105th) in pitch framing, costing the Marlins more than two wins, per the calculations at Baseball Prospectus. Even more damning is that if you neutralize for playing time (bad catchers might catch only once every five days, and therefore can't rack up as many "missed" strikes as a full-timer), he moved up to only 103rd. His total performance might equate to a three-to-four-win black hole at catcher.
While that hole has yet to be patched, the Marlins addressed their infield by bringing in a trio of veterans. Michael Morse, Dee Gordon and Martin Prado are the new first, second and third basemen, respectively, surrounding shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, 26, to complete the Marlins' "Core Four."
Prospects generate excitement because their upside isn't known and fans can dream about an uncapped future. However, a lot of them flame out (relatively), so you can't project players like Ozuna, or the Cubs' Kris Bryant, for example, to be five-WAR players -- but you also know they have that potential. For veterans like Morse, Gordon and Prado, that upside doesn't exist.
The Marlins need to get average-to-above-average performance from every one of them, plus limited regression from their trio of future stars. (Stanton is already an established star.) It could happen, but as great as he is, Stanton is coming off a career year helped mightily by an almost positively unsustainable .353 BABIP. Gordon had a similar fluky result last season (.346 BABIP) for the Dodgers that somehow rewarded his increasing disdain for taking walks. That's not exactly a trait you crave in a leadoff batter. Morse will be 33 on Opening Day, and while he reversed a steep decline in recent production as a valuable part of the 2014 World Champion Giants, it was his first decent season since 2011 (and his defense leaves something to be desired). Further, his 2014 power was disturbingly front-loaded -- 11 home runs in his first 200 plate appearances, five in the next 280. Defense was already a hidden weakness of the Marlins (28th in adjusted defensive efficiency), and while Prado has good metrics, Gordon's are weak.
While all baseball fans eagerly await the expected in-season return of Jose Fernandez, the Marlins were far more than one pitcher away from respectability last year. The rotation ranked 12th in the NL in ERA, and that included eight stellar outings by Fernandez before his elbow injury. Veterans Mat Latos and Dan Haren were acquired to shore up the rotation and, on the margin, they will improve the results of Nathan Eovaldi (4.37 ERA), as well as keep the parade of 5.00-plus ERA spot starters who plagued last season's staff, out of the rotation. That's the low-hanging fruit the Marlins can improve on, although a portion of that will be absorbed by near-certain regression from Henderson Alvarez (2.65 ERA in 30 starts) and Jarred Cosart (2.39 ERA in 10 starts).
In terms of innings pitched, the top three contributors to last season's above-average bullpen return in 2015. To the delight of South Florida baseball fans, Heath Bell does not.
If the three infield veterans, as well as Latos and Haren, can perform like it's 2011, the Marlins are going to the playoffs. Of course, the problem with thinking like that is that the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees were really, really good in 2011, and no one is clamoring to reconstruct those rosters. Until the defense gets better, including adding a catcher who can help with run suppression, the Marlins are probably another year away from legitimate wild-card contention. The potential is there, but potential is what leads to hype, and hype leads to inflated prices. At a current total wins market of 83, the Marlins look like a solid "under" play.
2015 Projection: 78-84 (third, NL East)
Bet recommendation: Under