We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Vegas projection: 87 wins
My projection: 90 wins
Current record/pace: 48-40 (88-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 85.5 wins
What has gone right: Albert Pujols and Mike Trout have been good at the same time. It seems hard to believe, but this is the first season the two teammates with four MVP Awards and another six runner-up finishes between them can hitch a ride with each other to the All-Star game. Trout's unbelievable success while playing for under-25 wages has papered over an entire roster worth of poor payroll decisions, but this year at least, the resurgence of Pujols has given the Angels a 1-2 power punch (52 home runs, by far the most of any two teammates) unequaled in the majors.
Even with some new faces in the field, the Angels have maintained their standing as a top-five defensive unit; that status comes with a bit of a red flag however. Through 81 games, the Angels had the best defensive efficiency in the majors, retiring batters at a 72.7 percent rate when they hit a ball into the field of play. (They have since slipped into a tie for third, as the rankings are bunched at the top.) Despite that prowess, the Angels were last in baseball at erasing the runners that did get on base via double plays. Yes, you can point out that if a team allows few baserunners, of course it will will turn fewer double plays. But when you adjust every team's figures to a rate basis (DPs per base runner on first with less than two outs), the Angels are still the worst defense at "turning two." It's an odd combination, partly explained by the fly ball tendencies of the Angels pitching staff (which isn't a positive attribute, especially on the road) but it's worth tracking the rest of the season.
What has gone wrong: Trout's and Pujols' mashing masks the fact that the Angels are actually a below-average team at scoring runs. It's hard to believe but the Angels are 18th in batting average, 17th in OBP and 14th in slugging. The bullish case for the Angels before the season started was that Trout had his "worst" season as a pro in 2014 and the Angels still had the best record in baseball. Well, here's the bearish case for the rest of the season: If Trout plays the second half of the season as merely an 8- or 9-WAR player, instead of the 11 WAR pace he's on, and if the rejuvenation of Pujols turns out to be fleeting, the Angels team that stood five games over .500 through the first half of their schedule will have a hard time maintaining an over-.500 pace, let alone making the playoffs.
In terms of skill sets, both the rotation and bullpen are more or less average, so maintaining a staff ERA of 3.35 (10th in the majors) is entirely dependent on the defense remaining a top-fve unit. I'm a little skeptical that will end up being the case given the double play deficiency. Internal improvement can be a solution, however, and Andrew Heaney has certainly looked major-league ready after three starts, befitting his status as the Angels' top prospect.
Second-half outlook: With the Angels just a game behind the Astros at the break, and the presence of the best player in baseball (no disrespect to Bryce Harper, but Trout's been doing this for four years), I understand the knowing nods from commentators as they note the tightening standings and question whether the Astros are for real. But I'm not one of them. I'd rather have Houston's defense, rotation and bullpen than the Angels', and if I could get underdog odds, I'd rather be holding a NL West champion futures ticket with the Astros logo on it. Based on current World Series odds at the Westgate, as well as daily pricing of each team, I think there's more upside in backing the Astros the rest of the way.