ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Los Angeles Angels.
Los Angeles Angels
Reason for optimism: Mike Trout has his worst year as a pro in 2014, and the Angels still had the best record in baseball.
Reason for pessimism: They're in a very tough division and Seattle got better.
Despite winning a major league-high 98 regular-season games, supported by a robust 143-run differential all while scoring the most runs in the majors, the Angels didn't get a lot of love from oddsmakers. Add up the Angels' single-game win expectancies (i.e. -150 = .6, +120 = .4545, etc.) and Vegas had them pegged to win less than 90 games. On that basis, Vegas judged five teams to be stronger than Los Angeles over the regular season, including the Tigers and the A's in the American League. Not surprisingly, the Angels provided bettors with the largest profit over the course of the season.
The question this season is whether that lack of respect carries over to the Angels projection or if it's a sign the Angels 2014 performance came with warning signs.
Plug all the numbers into a projection model and the largest regression comes from the defense, which finished sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency (a measure of converting batted balls into outs and erasing existing baserunners.) The Angels have been very inconsistent in that regard, finishing 27th in 2013, but fourth in 2012. Some expected stability in the bullpen, anchored for a full season by Huston Street, could offset some slippage on defense.
In short, the entire season looks repeatable, absent changes to the roster. Looking at the changes, the Angels will have a new second baseman after having shipped nine-year veteran Howie Kendrick to the Dodgers. The Angels filled that spot with a trade for the light-hitting Josh Rutledge. Without question, that's a drop-off. Josh Hamilton's status for 2015 still hasn't been decided, but frankly, he didn't provide much offense in about a half-season's worth of work in 2014. More playing time for C.J. Cron, Kole Calhoun, and the newly acquired Matt Joyce, may actually make the Angels a better team.
After squandering two consecutive years of Trout's 10-plus WAR production, the Angels returned to the postseason in 2014, dominating the American League during the second half of the year. While the call here is for the Mariners to win the AL West, it's really more of a reflection of Seattle's strengthened lineup and better rotation than it is a call against the Angels. The Angels have a remarkably balanced offense that's even more dominant than counting stats tell you because Angel Stadium significantly suppresses offense.
Despite the lack of game-to-game respect the Angels received from oddsmakers last year, the total wins market reveals Los Angeles, at 87 games, has the second-highest American League total, half a game higher than Seattle. The Angels look like a 90-win team and even if that doesn't win the division, it's a virtual guarantee it will get them to the 2015 postseason.
2015 projection: 90-72 (second, AL West)
Bet recommendation: Pass