We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Houston Astros
Vegas projection: 76.5 wins
My projection: 73 wins
Current record/pace: 49-42 (87-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 83.6 wins
What has gone right: Opening a review of the first half of the 2015 season, you might expect to see words like "regression," "lucky" and "unsustainable" in the passage on the Astros; you won't here.
Dallas Keuchel leads AL starters in ERA and it's absolutely time to stop looking skeptically at his results. He's a groundball machine, accompanied by swing-and-miss stuff and great control. That's not going away, and backed by the best defense in baseball, Keuchel actually projects to have a lower ERA than any other American League pitcher the rest of the season. (Chris Sale, Chris Archer and pick-your-dominant-Indians pitcher have lower SIERAs but they pitch in front of much weaker defenses.)
What has gone wrong: The rotation lacks depth and, due to injuries, has been unstable at the back end. Houston has had an astounding 11 different pitchers start a game so far despite getting 36 starts from Keuchel and Collin McHugh. The Astros need to solve that issue to maintain their playoff standing.
Houston's lineup may lack the presence of multiple guys having breakout years that often marks unsustainable results, but they do have a significant weakness: Astros hitters strike out once every four plate appearances, the highest rate in the majors. That's been a weakness for Houston for a number of years, but at least the Astros have augmented this year's swing-and-miss tendencies with a significant increase in power when they do make contact; the Astros may have the highest strikeout rate in baseball but it is accompanied by the highest isolated slugging reading as well. Sacrificing strikeouts for power can be a winning formula, but it's most effective if guys are on base. The Astros do get their share of walks, but they're 21st in OBP. That could be the weakness that derails them at some point.
Second-half outlook: I'm a complete believer in Houston's standing as a first-place team and potential postseason participant. There's a sizable margin of safety in having that view as well because oddsmakers are not overvaluing the Astros by any means. Houston had the largest spread between its results, stripped of all luck, and its daily pricing by oddsmakers. I don't think Vegas has caught up to the level of play in Houston and I'd happily back the Astros to ultimately capture the AL West crown if presented with odds that make them a meaningful underdog to hold on to their division lead.