ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Houston Astros.
Houston Astros
Reason for optimism: Management clearly righted the franchise in 2014. Some reinforcements arrive in 2015.
Reason for pessimism: Playing .500 baseball still isn't a reasonable goal, and in this division might not be for quite some time.
There have only been two other teams as bad as the 2013 Houston Astros since the division format debuted in 1969, the 43-win Detroit Tigers in 2003 and the 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks who, like the Astros team in question, won only 51 games. Interestingly enough, for all the respect and goodwill the Astros received last year for winning 70 games, their return to a level of respectability still lagged the reversal of fortunes of the 2004 Tigers (72 wins) and the 2005 Diamondbacks (77 wins). It truly is hard to remain replacement-level bad for two years running.
Even more interesting is that both of those aforementioned teams made the playoffs three years after they bottomed out. Given the strength in the American League West, that wouldn't seem to be a plausible outcome for next year's edition of the Astros, but there are definitely some pieces in place around which to construct a playoff team.
First of all, the Astros were actually better than their 70-win record indicated, particularly on the runs allowed side of the equation. The Astros ranked 25th in runs allowed, but when it came to the components that determine runs allowed (batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging against) the Astros ranked higher than that in every category. Their opponents happened to be very efficient in turning hits and baserunners into runs; in short, the Astros were subject to about five wins worth of negative cluster luck. So the Astros are starting from a higher talent base than you might think.
Next, Houston's bullpen was abysmal in 2014, which is good news for 2015. Since they also had the bullpen with the highest ERA in 2013, the Astros defied the belief that it's hard to have a truly terrible bullpen two years in a row. Perhaps realizing a bullpen wasn't the first place they needed to address after the disastrous 2013 season, Houston's front office didn't make a concerted effort to upgrade the relief corps until this winter. Luke Gregerson (lifetime ERA of 2.75) and Pat Neshek (2.78) were both signed to multiyear contracts in the offseason and they represent a huge upgrade. A big problem for Houston's pen has been stability. Consider this astounding fact: 221 pitchers threw at least 55 innings in relief in either 2013 or 2014, an average of more than seven a team but not one of them played for the Astros. Gregerson and Neshek, who threw 140 innings between them last year, aren't just upgrades on a per-inning basis compared to the other Astros' relievers the last two years, they figure to pitch a lot more innings as well.
Unfortunately, that's the end of the good news from a year-over-year run suppression standpoint. Seemingly out of nowhere, the Astros received ace-level starting pitching results from not one, but two different starters in 2014. Dallas Keuchel, at 26, provided 200 innings of 2.93 ERA starting pitching, and led the AL in complete games, with five. To say that performance came out of nowhere is an understatement, as Keuchel had previously worked 239 innings total in the bigs, with an ERA of 5.20 and one complete game. Rookie Collin McHugh didn't throw quite as many innings (155), but the former Mets and Rockies farmhand was just as effective (2.73 ERA.) How does a team find a Mets and Rockies castoff on waivers? Because during his time with both clubs, he went a combined 0-8, with an 8.94 ERA in his 47 innings pitched in the majors. We can make all the jokes we want about the Mets' and Rockies' player development histories, but the fact is pitchers with sub-3.00 ERA skills are not available on waivers. Any regression, which looks to be a lock, from Keuchel and McHugh will be a big problem for Houston, because behind them are a host of No. 5-caliber starters with a history of 4.00-plus ERAs.
Houston should score more runs than it did last season for the third year in a row, which will make the Astros an outlier in a league where scoring continues to drop. Hitting machine Jose Altuve anchors the offense, coming off of career highs in 2014 in virtually every offensive category. When your leadoff batter hits .341/.377/.453, steals 56 bases but scores only 85 runs, it's an indictment of the batters behind him. In an effort to get Altuve's run figure to triple digits, Houston has added Evan Gattis, Colby Rasmus, and Jed Lowrie. Gattis and Lowrie in particular will be sure upgrades at two positions, left field and shortstop, where the Astros had sub-replacement black holes on offense in 2014.
With a better offense and bullpen, the Astros' climb to respectability continues apace, although the rotation is sure to backslide a bit. Blocking a return to .500 however, is the schedule that is in a dead heat with the Rangers for the toughest in baseball (depending on if you think Texas will be better or worse than the Astros.) That alone may clip about three wins off their wins versus a league-average slate and keeps the Astros close to fairly valued, based on their 76.5 total wins market.
2015 projection: 73-89 (fourth, AL West)
Bet recommendation: Pass