We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week of October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can now be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but each year from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break made the postseason. Overall, 22 of 30 teams that made the playoffs would have made the playoffs if the season ended at the All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping, so let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results to expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday. All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2-win (60 percent x 162) team.
Oakland Athletics
Vegas projection: 82 wins
My projection: 85 wins
Current record/pace: 41-50 (73-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 86.9 wins
What has gone right: Despite a massive offseason overhaul of their starting lineup, the Athletics haven't missed a beat on offense.
That type of production-per-dollar doesn't stop on the offensive side of the ledger for the A's. Sonny Gray, making exactly the same amount of money as Vogt, is second in ERA among American League starters. In fact, continuing the theme of year-over-year comparisons, the A's allowed the second-fewest runs in the American League in 2014, and this year, they've only slipped to fifth through 81 games. That mild drop-off is entirely attributable to the defense.
The A's had baseball's best defense last year, in terms of runs saved via the conversion of batted balls into outs, and there was no way that was going to happen again this year. I've found that defensive units, like offensive lines in the NFL, are aided by continuity, and an entirely new infield for Oakland meant an increase in runs allowed was inevitable. Still, don't let the headline-grabbing, league-leading errors fool you: The A's defense has actually been an asset in 2015 and has turned batted balls into outs at an above-average rate -- even if that represents a material increase in runs allowed.
What has gone wrong: With regard to everything written in the above two paragraphs, it's probable that A's fans haven't noticed any of it because Oakland, a playoff team the past three seasons, is in last place. The Athletics' path from the best team in baseball at the previous year's All-Star break to last place this season is simply unbelievable. Between Oakland's stunning collapse in the second half of last year and its struggles in the first 81 games this year, Oakland went 73-89 and tied the White Sox for third-fewest wins in the American League. Here's the stunning part: Over those 162 games, the A's outscored their opponents by 70 runs! That run differential profiles to an 89-win team, and this spread between on-filed production and wins is probably the most extreme over 162 games since the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks won 90 games (and the NL West) despite being outscored.
Not surprisingly, the Athletics' record in one-run games this year is abysmal. Oakland is 7-22 in games decided by one run, including 1-6 in extra-inning games, all of which ended as one-run contests. In just about every way, the A's have been unlucky. In addition to the negative Pythagorean luck (converting run differential to wins) due to the sequencing of their offensive and pitching production, they've even been unlucky in their actual run production and run prevention. As a Bay Area resident, I know I'll need to duck in the presence of A's fans if they read this next sentence: The A's actually played to the level of a 95-win team in the first half of this season.
Second-half outlook: Oddsmakers haven't been blind to the Athletics' talent. Oakland has been the second-most expensive AL team to back on a daily basis. Unless those lines start dropping, incredibly enough, there is very little to be gained by expecting the A's to win more games in the second half of the season. If the A's start selling assets (Ben Zobrist, Tyler Clippard and Scott Kazmir are all on expiring deals), I suspect lines won't drop enough. Sadly for a team that has been way better than its record, Oakland might provide some value as a bet-against team.