ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Oakland Athletics.
Oakland Athletics
Reason for optimism: The A's were a lot better than their ending record last year, so marginal decreases in the lineup won't drop them as much as observers believe.
Reason for pessimism: They gave away the second-best player in the American League of the past two years.
Poker analogies tend to be overused, but if you think of poker as an exercise in critical reasoning, then the comparison of A's general manager Billy Beane to a poker player is apt. Overseeing a team with the best record in the majors at the midway point (51-30), and sporting an eye-popping plus-135 run differential that confirmed the quality of play underlying the 100 plus-win pace, Beane went "all-in," putting a significant amount of his team's future at risk in an effort to exploit the current advantage he held over the rest of the league. The trades for Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester appeared to lock the A's into a position to win 100-plus games, hold home field for the playoffs, and, for the first time in three years, have starting pitching ammo to rival the Detroit Tigers.
Clearly, process trumped results, because as sound as the plan looked, it turned out miserably. Following the trades for Samardzija and Lester, the A's went 37-44, didn't go "over" their preseason win total of 88.5, and barely slipped into the American League playoffs as a wild card.
Like any skilled player, even facing an ill-fated all-in, Beane gave himself "outs" and he activated a number of them this winter. Most notably, the A's shockingly traded their best player in each of the past two seasons, Josh Donaldson, to Toronto to restock the minors and get younger (and yes, cheaper) at third base in the form of Brett Lawrie. From a chemistry standpoint, Lawrie won't have to worry about fitting in with Donaldson's former infield mates, because none of them is on the team, either. In fact, the A's Opening Day lineup projects to start only two players, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick, who saw significant time on last year's team.
There's a hidden problem to that lineup turnover, as well. No team in 2014 came close to turning as high a percentage of batted balls into outs as the A's did. And it didn't stop there, as even those who got on base often didn't stay there very long. Oakland allowed the second-fewest amount of opposing batters to reach base via a single, walk, error or hit by pitcher, yet only 10 teams turned more double plays. Toss in 37 outfield assists (tied for second in the majors) and the A's were by far the most efficient defensive team in all of baseball in 2014. Regression from that lofty perch was a given, even if all the same players returned. There's significant amount of turnover in the rotation, as well as 39 starts from midseason rentals Samardzija, Lester and Jason Hammel that need to be replaced, so it is a lock that Oakland will allow more runs this year.
So a team that barely made the playoffs with 88 wins, lost its offensive MVP, most of its league-leading defense, as well as three-fifths of its season-ending rotation, is sure to fall below .500 this year, right? Well, there is another way to look at it, and that should give A's backers some hope. First of all, the A's performed at a far higher level than their 88 wins indicated. They, not the Angels -- who easily won the AL West -- nor any of the other eight teams that won 88 or more games last year, had the best run differential in baseball.
In fact, their run differential of 157 was suggestive of a 99-win team, making Oakland by far the unluckiest team in the majors on a Pythagorean basis. Now, they had a notable amount of cluster luck in amassing those run totals given their play-by-play output, but net it all together and the A's were a legitimate 95-win team ... just like the Angels.
Of course, the Angels have the much higher chance of repeating that performance this year, but the A's drop-off should be measured from a 95-win base, not 88 wins. Despite the changes, the lineup is far from feeble. Ben Zobrist, who is so under-the-radar valuable that it seems he could only ever play for either Tampa or Oakland, brings tremendous versatility and a significant upgrade at second base. Lawrie might be the one player in the majors who could actually upgrade Donaldson's glove work in the field, and Ike Davis and Billy Butler are just the type of veteran players who often thrive in Oakland's lineup.
Oakland, with a total wins market of 82, is an even bet to finish .500. It really comes down to this: Do you think the team with the largest run differential in 2014 incurred enough marginal downgrades in the offseason to give up more runs in 2015 than it scores? The call here is no, and rather emphatically. Thanks to team total win markets in Vegas collectively summing up to more than the total number of games to be played, "over" bets are in short supply, but Oakland still makes the cut.
2015 projection: 85-77 (third, AL West)
Bet recommendation: Over