We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and under-valued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday, July 12.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent * 162) win team.
Cleveland Indians
Vegas projection: 84.5 wins
My projection: 84 wins
Current record/pace: 42-46 (78-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 87.9 wins
What has gone right: Living up to expectations based on last year's breakout performance, the Indians have -- by a considerable margin -- the best starting rotation in the American League.
On the other side of the ledger, the offense is anchored by MVP candidate Jason Kipnis and they've gotten hot, having won nine out of 12 games against top-tier opposition.
So why do I think they're a long shot to play baseball in October?
What has gone wrong: Confirming fears based on last year's dismal showing, the Indians have a defense that negates many of the advantages that the high-strikeout, low-walk rotation provides. You can get a feel for it by looking at this table. When it comes to teams that are bad at turning batted balls into hits, the Indians are right up there with the Phillies, Rockies, White Sox and Nationals, all teams whose defensive deficiencies are addressed in their team capsules. In fairness, Cleveland is better than last year, and that crude ranking is not adjusted for double plays, caught stealings, baserunner kills, etc. (the Indians get a bit of a bump after those factors).
Cleveland's problem is that its pitching is its competitive advantage because the offense is at best average, so the Indians can't squander that advantage with below-average defense. The Indians are hopeful that the June promotion of Francisco Lindor, their No. 1-ranked prospect, helps in two ways. Jose Ramirez was both an offensive and defensive liability and early reports are encouraging, at least on the defensive side.
Similarly, but with less fanfare, the Tribe went younger at third base, sending Lonnie Chisenhall to the minors while promoting Giovanny Urshela. The results are mixed after a month or so, but at least the Indians are attempting to address their weaknesses and get this rotation to the short-series environment of the postseason.
Second-half outlook: Unlike with the Tigers and Twins, I can see a path to the division title for Cleveland. The pitching staff is so talented and a 25-percent strikeout rate goes a long way toward mitigating the weakness of the defense. If Nick Swisher could come back from injury and bring his pre-2014 bat, that could be the marginal improvement needed on the offense to take advantage of injuries that recently befell the Tigers and Royals. However, I don't think it happens because Swisher's been a cumulative minus-2.0 WAR player since 2013 and I can't see the defense improving enough to get the Indians meaningfully above the .500 mark. Even if you think the recent hot streak is indicative of future performance, I urge caution -- the Indians have been the highest priced team in the division (by a wide margin) all season.